Coronavirus

[JBRR]

This is Singapore response:
® ¥ ¨ † å ® ø on Twitter

This is US response:
Judd Legum on Twitter
CDC abruptly postpones coronavirus press briefing
sketchy lady on Twitter

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

As per video, between 3 & 5.5 billion people will ultimately be infected
U.S. preps for a pandemic as coronavirus claims 6 lives in Washington state

 

[bkp_duke]

I am a bit amused, as a physician that also has a degree in molecular biology and has worked with viruses, about how people here are "concerned that containment has failed", etc. and wanting to toss blame on their respective governments.

For the record, in medical school, we are taught that containing airborne / respiratory droplet viruses is virtually impossible without a vaccine. There are no effective scientific measures to contain something like influenza on a mass scale unless you can prop up the herd immunity. Coronavirus is similar in its method of spread. The best we can hope for is to slow things down with proper hygiene, etc.

The battle against this virus will NOT be won with containment measures, but will be won at the vaccine level. The only way to stop the continued spread will be vaccination-induced herd immunity. Then, when the virus has nothing left it can infect, it will burn itself out.

So for those commenting at how "good China was" and how bad the US and other countries are about containment, bear in mind that:
1) No amount of resources (including Trillions in testing kits / sanitation procedures / etc.) would stop this virus from spreading simply because it is an airborne virus. There is almost certainly "asymptomatic shedding" of the virus by people when they are infected but before they are symptomatic. Viruses have literally evolved this "feature" in order to improve their propagation - and it works.
2) The numbers reported from China, given the authoritarian nature of the regime, represent the best of what is possible (if you believe those numbers, I do not - I believe they are selectively testing and that COVID-19 is far more widespread). Despite these best possible efforts, they still failed to prevent the spread of this to the rest of the world, and the rest of their own country.

 

[JBRR]

I am a bit amused, as a physician that also has a degree in molecular biology and has worked with viruses, about how people here are "concerned that containment has failed", etc. and wanting to toss blame on their respective governments.

For the record, in medical school, we are taught that containing airborne / respiratory droplet viruses is virtually impossible without a vaccine. There are no effective scientific measures to contain something like influenza on a mass scale unless you can prop up the herd immunity. Coronavirus is similar in its method of spread. The best we can hope for is to slow things down with proper hygiene, etc.

The battle against this virus will NOT be won with containment measures, but will be won at the vaccine level. The only way to stop the continued spread will be vaccination-induced herd immunity. Then, when the virus has nothing left it can infect, it will burn itself out.

So for those commenting at how "good China was" and how bad the US and other countries are about containment, bear in mind that:
1) No amount of resources (including Trillions in testing kits / sanitation procedures / etc.) would stop this virus from spreading simply because it is an airborne virus. There is almost certainly "asymptomatic shedding" of the virus by people when they are infected but before they are symptomatic. Viruses have literally evolved this "feature" in order to improve their propagation - and it works.
2) The numbers reported from China, given the authoritarian nature of the regime, represent the best of what is possible (if you believe those numbers, I do not - I believe they are selectively testing and that COVID-19 is far more widespread). Despite these best possible efforts, they still failed to prevent the spread of this to the rest of the world, and the rest of their own country.

There's a lot of things they don't teach in medical school.

Nicholas A. Christakis on Twitter

 

[JBRR]

https://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/ht...&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200303:nPNAv2bJna

Inovio Accelerates Timeline for COVID-19 DNA Vaccine INO-4800

 

[bkp_duke]

There's a lot of things they don't teach in medical school.

Nicholas A. Christakis on Twitter

You mis-interpret my post as "we should not try to contain this". I'm simply saying, at the very best, containment should be focused around slowing the spread so as to buy us more time to save lives with vaccines.

NO ONE should expect containment to actually stop this thing.

 

[bkp_duke]

https://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/ht...&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200303:nPNAv2bJna

Inovio Accelerates Timeline for COVID-19 DNA Vaccine INO-4800

These are the guys that came up with the Ebola vaccine, IIRC. It wasn't a perfect vaccine by any stretch, but it did significantly reduce morbidity and mortality.

 

[AlexS]

The virus has killed 52 people in Italy, all aged between 63 and 95 with underlying serious illnesses

 

[Dr. J]

https://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/ht...&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200303:nPNAv2bJna

Inovio Accelerates Timeline for COVID-19 DNA Vaccine INO-4800

"We plan on delivering one million doses by year end with existing resources and capacity. However, we will need additional resources to scale up to make enough doses to help protect Americans from COVID-19 as well as to lead global efforts to curtail this virus."

This sounds like a plea for federal funding. But maybe they can do it.

 

[JBRR]

You mis-interpret my post as "we should not try to contain this". I'm simply saying, at the very best, containment should be focused around slowing the spread so as to buy us more time to save lives with vaccines.

NO ONE should expect containment to actually stop this thing.

No one who matters is.

 

[Singer3000]

I will be taking a break from posting for the sake of my own sanity.

To anyone there who’s primary concern remains when to time their stock or options purchases, I advise you to watch the press conference today held by the British PM, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Advisor.

Listen to what they say carefully. The basic conclusion is that while they’ll try and achieve containment for as long as possible, this will most likely fail. They have begun softening up the British population for what is to come. They are ready to deploy the army. Not to enforce a city wide quarantine, which they see at this point as probably fruitless. But to maintain civil order.

I am not aware of another government having yet been this open and ready to answer very troubling questions put to them by the press. But I guess it will not be long before this is repeated in your own countries.

The remarkable thing is that as they spoke, the UK stock market remained stable. Denial is a powerful defence mechanism that keeps our psyche sound at times of stress. And it’s impossible to listen to the words of the UK’s most senior scientist and not think that society as a whole is currently in a state of deep psychological denial. When this denial breaks, it will be a traumatic moment for societies everywhere.

I wish you all the very best.

 

[JRP3]

Case reported in NYC, at least one school closed.

 

[EVNow]

wanting to toss blame on their respective governments.

I blame the government for completely botched response. Read the below thread and tell me this is how you would expect a functioning government to respond. With obvious local transmission - still they are testing only those with known contact to infected patients / been to infected countries.

sketchy lady on Twitter

I live in Seattle, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis. Since I work in a physical therapy clinic with many 65+ patients and those with chronic illnesses, I decided to be responsible and go to get tested. This is how that went.

I called the Corona hotline, was on hold for 40 minutes and gave up. So I looked at the CDC and Washington public health websites. They told me to see a primary care doctor, but there's no information about testing.

I called 2 primary care doctors. One told me they don't know where to get testing, and that I should not to seek out testing. The other one told me to go to an urgent care or ER. I called the Urgent Care, they also had no idea where tests are, but told me to call the hospital.

I called the hospital. They do not have tests, but transferred me to the COVID-19 hotline to "answer my questions". Since I was transferred on a medical provider line, I actually got through. Progress!

The lady with the hotline was very kind and professional and understood my concern about my own health and those at my clinic. (Which is currently being sanitized). However, I was told I do not qualify for testing. And I was not given a timeline or info on current resources.

So. Who does qualify? Those who have been out of the country in the last 14 days, and those who have had contact with one of the few people who have been tested and come up positive. That's it.

This is all incredibly frustrating because I am trying to do everything right in a system that punishes moments of "weakness" like taking days off. It's also scary to know that I won't be able to get help until I need life support.
​

In South Korea they have drive through testing. Which government do you think is functioning and which one is not ?

 

[SageBrush]

, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis.

The symptoms of chronic bronchities overlap covid-19. If she has worsening symptoms or her chronic symptoms with a new fever then she should put on a mask and call a local ER for instructions.

Her past and current tobacco abuse history would be informative. If she is an active smoker then the best advice she can receive would be to stop.

 

[linux-works]

meanwhile, the supply chain in the US is farked; so many things are out of stock.

was there any rationing at stores? not that I saw. people could buy the whole shelf worth of hand sanitizer, etc. no one stopped anyone. preppers probably emptied the shelves and its going to take weeks or longer to restock.

no one in control is doing a thing. I thought there were laws against charging outrageous prices when there is a national emergency? maybe that's the problem, we have not declared one yet.

I don't expect his orangeness to be effective on this, of course ;(

 

[lascavarian]

I will be taking a break from posting for the sake of my own sanity.

To anyone there who’s primary concern remains when to time their stock or options purchases, I advise you to watch the press conference today held by the British PM, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Advisor.

Listen to what they say carefully. The basic conclusion is that while they’ll try and achieve containment for as long as possible, this will most likely fail. They have begun softening up the British population for what is to come. They are ready to deploy the army. Not to enforce a city wide quarantine, which they see at this point as probably fruitless. But to maintain civil order.

I am not aware of another government having yet been this open and ready to answer very troubling questions put to them by the press. But I guess it will not be long before this is repeated in your own countries.

The remarkable thing is that as they spoke, the UK stock market remained stable. Denial is a powerful defence mechanism that keeps our psyche sound at times of stress. And it’s impossible to listen to the words of the UK’s most senior scientist and not think that society as a whole is currently in a state of deep psychological denial. When this denial breaks, it will be a traumatic moment for societies everywhere.

I wish you all the very best.

on YouTube you can search “British virus plan”

 

[KarenRei]

So for those commenting at how "good China was" and how bad the US and other countries are about containment, bear in mind that:
1) No amount of resources (including Trillions in testing kits / sanitation procedures / etc.) would stop this virus from spreading simply because it is an airborne virus. There is almost certainly "asymptomatic shedding" of the virus by people when they are infected but before they are symptomatic. Viruses have literally evolved this "feature" in order to improve their propagation - and it works.
2) The numbers reported from China, given the authoritarian nature of the regime, represent the best of what is possible (if you believe those numbers, I do not - I believe they are selectively testing and that COVID-19 is far more widespread). Despite these best possible efforts, they still failed to prevent the spread of this to the rest of the world, and the rest of their own country.

Your disagreement with WHO is duly noted.

Oh, and FYI? COVID-19 is not an airborne-spread virus.

---
Routes of transmission COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities. Fecal shedding has been demonstrated from some patients, and viable virus has been identified in a limited number of case reports. However, the fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission; its role and significance for COVID-19 remains to be determined. Viral shedding is discussed in the Technical Findings (Annex C)
---

Also:

---
Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
---

Lastly, similar viruses, like SARS, have been eradicated. We may well have gotten past the point of being able to do that here, but containment efforts remain a good thing, as time is very much our friend. Time means:

• (Longer term, e.g. next winter's seasonal flu vaccine) More time for vaccine development /testing
• (Shorter term, e.g. a couple months) Antiviral approval, to treat people whose symptoms are anything worse than a cold (e.g. the elderly, people with preexisting conditions, etc).
• More time for medical systems to prepare
• More sunlight and warmth in the northern hemisphere.
• Perhaps most importantly, more time for artificial evolutionary pressures on the virus to select for the least virulent forms. E.g. pockets that send a lot of people to the hospital get quarantined early on, while those that don't get noticed last longer and seed more new pockets. The same thing happened with the 2009 H1N1 avian flu pandemic. When it broke out in Mexico, it overwhelmed the medical system with severe cases. By the time it had petered out, it was no deadlier than a regular seasonal flu. Indeed, it's exactly these evolutionary factors (severe cases keep people home (or worse, quarantine all their contacts), while people who get mild cases still go out in public) which put evolutionary pressure on seasonal flus to be mild in the first place. We're already seeing signs of increasingly low CFRs over time, vs. the initial high CFR in Wuhan.

 

[KSilver2000]

The symptoms of chronic bronchities overlap covid-19. If she has worsening symptoms or her chronic symptoms with a new fever then she should put on a mask and call a local ER for instructions.

Her past and current tobacco abuse history would be informative. If she is an active smoker then the best advice she can receive would be to stop.

I’m not saying whether that case is true or not.

But, how in the sane world did you conclude to infer that she has a history of tobacco use after reading that?

 

[SageBrush]

Transmission routes according to the CDC:

Person-to-person spread
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

• Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
• Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

 

[Reinhard]

Your disagreement with WHO is duly noted.

Oh, and FYI? COVID-19 is not an airborne-spread virus.

---
Routes of transmission COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities. Fecal shedding has been demonstrated from some patients, and viable virus has been identified in a limited number of case reports. However, the fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission; its role and significance for COVID-19 remains to be determined. Viral shedding is discussed in the Technical Findings (Annex C)
---

Also:

---
Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
---

Lastly, similar viruses, like SARS, have been eradicated. We may well have gotten past the point of being able to do that here, but containment efforts remain a good thing, as time is very much our friend. Time means:

• (Longer term, e.g. next winter's seasonal flu vaccine) More time for vaccine development /testing
• (Shorter term, e.g. a couple months) Antiviral approval, to treat people whose symptoms are anything worse than a cold (e.g. the elderly, people with preexisting conditions, etc).
• More time for medical systems to prepare
• More sunlight and warmth in the northern hemisphere.
• Perhaps most importantly, more time for artificial evolutionary pressures on the virus to select for the least virulent forms. E.g. pockets that send a lot of people to the hospital get quarantined early on, while those that don't get noticed last longer and seed more new pockets. The same thing happened with the 2009 H1N1 avian flu pandemic. When it broke out in Mexico, it overwhelmed the medical system with severe cases. By the time it had petered out, it was no deadlier than a regular seasonal flu. Indeed, it's exactly these evolutionary factors (severe cases keep people home (or worse, quarantine all their contacts), while people who get mild cases still go out in public) which put evolutionary pressure on seasonal flus to be mild in the first place. We're already seeing signs of increasingly low CFRs over time, vs. the initial high CFR in Wuhan.

Airborne diseases include any that are caused via transmission through the air including droplets.