As Greater Seattle inhabitant, love your "don't test - don't tell" recap. Exactly how i feel. ~1200 tests done so far, it looks like in WA, with >10% positive. Happy to see private sector step [Bill] step up and fund testing efforts, as people are uneasy, especially ones with symptoms.Short version: I'm looking for different points of view and opinions on a portfolio shift I'm contemplating; namely to move all the money in market tracking funds into cash for (guess of the day) 3-9 months until I see evidence that the US response is focused on the medical crisis, rather than the potential political and/or economic crisis.
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Now, my thinking:
Yes, with a botched response like this, we'll see a body count, a large body count of most vulnerable. We might even go into a recession. I think it is at least 6-9 months ordeal, optimistically. My horizon is long, and I'm a net buyer, so I am thinking of pulling forward my 401k contributions to the next 3-4 months, which will be ugly. My data points (I work with large companies, including internationally): a lot of companies have cancelled travel, meetings, some - coming to office.
I think everything will be on sale, especially highly-globalized internationals, who will feel supply chain shocks. TSLA is in better position than most auto manufacturers.
Plus, we'd possibly see inflation coming back, at least as a blip, with all that commodities stockpiling rush.
However, once vaccine is found, stock market and we will rebound quick and smarter too. Ignoring CDC, not stock-piling tests, ignoring the whole crisis will sink this sitting President.
So I stay invested, and pulling forward tax-advantaged contributions.