Coronavirus

[ohmman]

Think about this

Both Trump and Elon is touting the same line about the Coronavirus.

Blows your mind doesn't it?

They both seem to have the same unhealthy addiction to Twitter as well.

 

[sparcs]

Think about this

Both Trump and Elon is touting the same line about the Coronavirus.

Blows your mind doesn't it?

Elon's statements have no relevance whereas the other guy is actually in charge of this public health crisis. Everything that guy says actually matters in a public health crisis.

Let's not conflate entirely separate things. The only reason we even bring up Elon here is because we are on a Tesla site. Otherwise I would have just ignored his comments whether I agree or disagree with him.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Think about this

Both Trump and Elon is touting the same line about the Coronavirus.

Blows your mind doesn't it?

Elon is an engineer / data guy. He thinks about it logically. The data shows it logically doesn't make sense to be afraid of corona virus when so many other things are more likely to kill you.

I get his perspective as I am wired the same, but he shouldn't have said it as humans aren't logical for the most part.

 

[MD70]

Silvia Stringhini on Twitter
An account by an Italian doctor about what happens when the hospitals get overloaded. In the UK the government is trying to delay the virus infection rate before moving onto a phase were they will recommend isolation etc. I hope this tactic works, if not we will be in the same position as the Italians. As for the US, I fear it’s only a matter of time before some areas end up in the situation like the Italians.

 

[EVNow]

A little perspective: I am sure it has been stated but it bears repeating: In the US only this year, influenza has caused 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths. Corona virus globally this year has caused 111,317 infections and 3,892 deaths.

290,810,000 population in 2003, and in that year, approx. 2,419,900 deaths occurred in total, giving a crude death rate of 832 deaths per 100,00. AS of 2020, the CIA estimates US crude death rate will be 8.3 per 1000 and global rate of 7.7 per 1000. (wikipedia)

LOL. Are you Trump - because that's what he just tweeted.

BTW, if you are looking for "facts" - this has never happened with flu in Iran.

 

[powertoold]

As for the US, I fear it’s only a matter of time before some areas end up in the situation like the Italians.

Large urban areas with public transit users are biggest risk. Fortunately, there aren't many of those in the USA. NYC is the biggest risk IMO.

 

[dl003]

Silvia Stringhini on Twitter
An account by an Italian doctor about what happens when the hospitals get overloaded. In the UK the government is trying to delay the virus infection rate before moving onto a phase were they will recommend isolation etc. I hope this tactic works, if not we will be in the same position as the Italians. As for the US, I fear it’s only a matter of time before some areas end up in the situation like the Italians.

Judging by the number of deaths, there's something seriously different between WA and Italy. Make no mistake, Italy was screwed long before reports of first deaths. What stage we are in the States remain to be seen but if you take out the nursing home cluster, the US almost has no deaths. That in itself should be encouraging.

 

[Alfred]

Do you have a good read on the situation in Switzerland? The raw numbers are encouraging so far:

# "Switzerland" daily new infections log:
Mar 01:     6 new cases,     23 total cases (+25.0%)  #
Mar 02:     6 new cases,     29 total cases (+20.0%)  #
Mar 03:     7 new cases,     36 total cases (+18.9%)  #
Mar 04:    43 new cases,     79 total cases (+53.7%)  #########
Mar 05:     7 new cases,     86 total cases ( +8.0%)  #
Mar 06:   123 new cases,    209 total cases (+58.5%)  ############################
Mar 07:    54 new cases,    263 total cases (+20.4%)  ############
Mar 08:    68 new cases,    331 total cases (+20.4%)  ###############
Mar 09:    42 new cases,    373 total cases (+11.2%)  #########

It's the fourth column percentage (second derivative) I'm watching, to catch the inflection point which was the best sign of containment in China and South Korea.

The drop to 11.2% today in Switzerland, if there's no new infections announced this evening, would mark a possible inflection point and turnaround in record time.

This suggests that Swiss health authorities both have enough testing capacity and are intensely tracing back existing infections and are trying to contain all sources and possible secondary infections.

But on the other hand it might just be a random artifact of lax testing ... only someone with good insight into the state of things in Switzerland would be able to disambiguate the two cases.

312 confirmed cases is the official figure as of 9.3. 1200 hours. Confirmed means that a first positive test has been confirmed with a second analysis in the Geneva reference lab. Some Cantons (states) report separately also the positives pending confirmation. Testing capacity in Switzerland was mentioned to be around 1000 samples/day. The Southern Canton Tessin (Ticino, bordering Italy) had in one statistic I saw the largest number of unconfirmed positives. This is logical as the need for testing there is higher. There are 60'000 Italians crossing the border daily into Switzerland for work. The lockdown in Italy allows travel for work, but they have to show a document (work permit or similar) when stopped along the road or on the border.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Judging by the number of deaths, there's something seriously different between WA and Italy. Make no mistake, Italy was screwed long before reports of first deaths. What stage we are in the States remain to be seen but if you take out the nursing home cluster, the US almost has no deaths. That in itself should be encouraging.

Too early to tell without broader testing unfortunately. The next few weeks will be telling. The irony is that broad testing could work in Trump’s favor by identifying widespread transmission, thus alleviating doubt as to the severity of the disease. Instead we’re all left to wonder, and we all know how much investors like uncertainty...

 

[linux-works]

Elon is an engineer / data guy. He thinks about it logically. The data shows it logically doesn't make sense to be afraid of corona virus when so many other things are more likely to kill you.

elon can go live on a private island and isolate himself. all the ultra rich can.

WE CANNOT.

I could not care less what elon says about things outside his knowlege or experience base.

afaik, he never lived like a middle or lower-middle class person lives. his advice is less than useless.

 

[Dr. J]

afaik, he never lived like a middle or lower-middle class person lives.

Ashlee Vance's biography of Elon Musk is a good starting point for understanding where he's coming from. You'd be surprised.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

elon can go live on a private island and isolate himself. all the ultra rich can.

WE CANNOT.

I could not care less what elon says about things outside his knowlege or experience base.

afaik, he never lived like a middle or lower-middle class person lives. his advice is less than useless.

You should probably read about his upbringing in South Africa.

 

[dl003]

elon can go live on a private island and isolate himself. all the ultra rich can.

WE CANNOT.

I could not care less what elon says about things outside his knowlege or experience base.

afaik, he never lived like a middle or lower-middle class person lives. his advice is less than useless.

Funny, I never knew Elon as speaking from an unscientific standpoint. Are you sure this is not ad hominem? There are many ways to look at the same problem. In the field you'd refer to doctors in regard how it spreads and what precautions to take. What Elon mentioned was statistics and data bias, right up his alley.

 

[EVNow]

Think about this

Both Trump and Elon is touting the same line about the Coronavirus.

Blows your mind doesn't it?

Its not clear what prompted Musk's tweet. It could be something to do with TP. Anyway, an irresponsible tweet without giving any context.

This was his only response to that tweet.

 

[KarenRei]

Think about this

Both Trump and Elon is touting the same line about the Coronavirus.

Blows your mind doesn't it?

Not exactly. Trump's point is "it's just the flu, bro". Musk's is "panic is pointless, and amateurs are calculating the mortality rate wrong by dividing total diagnoses by total deaths, as well as taking a naive view of exponential growth."

Trump's point is wrong. Musk's is correct.

Human teeth are also similar to those found in other herbivores

More specifically, we evolved from fructivores (to the point that we outright lost the ability to produce vitamin C without it imposing negative selective factors in our ancestors, a relative rarity among mammals), to omnivorous scavengers, to general omnivores, which up until the modern era ate very mixed diets depending on culture and location, but in most societies (particularly in the tropics) more plant calories than meat.

But this is extremely offtopic.

 

[KarenRei]

Its not clear what prompted Musk's tweet. It could be something to do with TP. Anyway, an irresponsible tweet without giving any context.

This was his only response to that tweet.

No, that was not his only response.

And everything he wrote is correct. I too am tired of people panic-buying, esp. people who have no need to, making it harder on people who actually have more justification to. I too am tired of "amateur internet epidemologists" misinterpreting diagnoses vs. mortalities or misunderstanding the limits of exponential growth, and misusing R0.

 

[dl003]

Too early to tell without broader testing unfortunately. The next few weeks will be telling. The irony is that broad testing could work in Trump’s favor by identifying widespread transmission, thus alleviating doubt as to the severity of the disease. Instead we’re all left to wonder, and we all know how much investors like uncertainty...

Agree. I remain hopeful because even though our response has been lacking, the media has picked up the slack by driving everyone nuts and into self isolation.

 

[EVNow]

Judging by the number of deaths, there's something seriously different between WA and Italy. Make no mistake, Italy was screwed long before reports of first deaths. What stage we are in the States remain to be seen but if you take out the nursing home cluster, the US almost has no deaths. That in itself should be encouraging.

That's true - one thing we don't know is whether there is undiagnosed death not attributed to Covid.

Even in LifeCenter there were 11 deaths since Feb 19 that are undiagnosed, for eg.

Anyway, if we think there are 1,000 cases in Seattle area and fatality rate is about 0.5% - we'd expect 5 deaths. And there have been 19-16 = 3 deaths in WA not connected with LifeCenter (?).

ps : From genetic tracing it looks like the Cruise near SanFrancisco with Covid problems is because of someone from Seattle who went on that cruise.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

The virus "CA-CDPH-UC1" appears to nest within genetic diversity of the Washington State outbreak. This suggests a scenario in which an individual infected in WA travelled to California / Grand Princess and instigated a chain of transmission that led to this case.
​

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Some schools in Germany are shut down since today.

 

[Rotte]

LOL. Are you Trump - because that's what he just tweeted.

BTW, if you are looking for "facts" - this has never happened with flu in Iran.

Nope, just a doctor.