Coronavirus

[ohmman]

He also differentiates between CFR and IFR, which I found useful.

Thanks, I just gave myself a primer on those as well; sounds as if these are the terms that should be used across the board to ensure everyone differentiates appropriately.

 

[EVNow]

And this is the sort of stuff that's been bothering Musk too, and I fully, 100% sympathize.

We have no idea what is bothering Musk. It could be 4% CFR, TP runs or he might think Trump is right and working from home is stupid and its all fake news.

And back to the initial question: you don't turn to armchair epidemologists with a pocket calculator when discussing the CFR; you consult WHO and the CDC. And most recently they've been pointing at a CFR of about 0,7% outside of Wuhan, give or take. Musk was absolutely right to call out that sort of stupidity.

LOL. Where did Musk talk about 0.7 CFR ?

BTW. even with 0.5 CFR, the results can be devastating.

 

[Stormy24]

So at this time there are about 4000 dead we know about in this deadly virus outbreak in about 8 weeks Worldwide .
Yet the 400,000 deaths mostly children in Africa from malaria (every year) is not in the news as it’s become the norm .What a world we live in...

 

[deffu]

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Italy allowed many chinese buisness to setup factories in Italy to produce fashion items. What many people don't know is that China imports Chinese to work in these factories instead of hiring local Italians. The result is that many of these Chinese returned to work in Italy after the Lunar new year and passed on the infection. There are many more countries with these kind of setup in Africa and we should also be hearing about them now... IF the "blacks are immune to coronavirus" is proven to be wrong.

It is true that there is a large group of immigrants in Italy working in textile industry from Wenzhou, China, a city heavily affected by the outbreak in Wuhan. But I didnt find any reports from Italy gov/press that the current outbreak originated in local Chinese community. It is a possibility. But it might also be coming from tourists from China/ business travelers of China/Italy. The current situation in Italy is unfortunate. Accusing a specific group or etiquette of Italian people and singling out blacks in Africa without evidence is bordering racism and doesnt help solve the problem. It might just be a combination of timing and bad luck.

P.S. I see you are from P.R.C. Are you originally from People's Republic of China?

 

[dl003]

it is demonstrably false that "we all get the memo coming down". testing is not being ramped up the way it should. as of yesterday the NY gov had to make a public plea for the CDC to allow a private lab here on Long Island to test. the "panic" is so people get ready for potentially large scale shutdowns to help flatten the curve. that is what the epidemiologists are talking about. frankly this is my last response on the subject because I don't understand how people are missing the point so bad.

"as much as possible". If there're no test kits, there're no test kits. Trump is going to trump and we're going to do what we can.
Are you working in a hospital? I am. In Texas. Where we are accused of living in the past. Hospitals are devising strategies for the virus. How is panic helping people get ready? Panic never helps anyone do anything. Hospitals don't plan according to and don't get pressured by the media. We each have capital constraints as well as existing emergency plans to guide us in events like this. Joe next door panicking isn't going do squat. If you think panicking is going to compel us to build temporary hospitals like the Chinese did, no it's not gonna.

 

[Alfred]

Thanks, that's reassuring all around. Are there any broad containment measures in the affected cantons, or not yet?

Yes - there are many health services related measures, a few national regulations, many advisory and many more at cantonal or local levels. The official English language text here has further detail.
So far there are no travel restrictions and most industries, but for tourism and travel of course, continue to work about normally. Positive cases are still being traced and quarantines are imposed where appropriate. Most schools and universities are operational. Only where positives were encountered, classes or institutes were closed and participants partly quarantined. A general closure of schools was considered to be premature and would have endangered the elderly additionally (having to look after the grandchildren). There are also measures in place to help economically hard hit industries.

It seems that recommendations for "social distancing" are followed quite widely and towns have become a bit quiet. Masks are not being worn as stocks have been depleted a long time ago. Available supplies are reserved for health care facilities. New supplies were blocked by neighbouring countries. Also Italy could recently not buy anything in France or Germany anymore. Friendly neighbourly practices..... The political harvest will be interesting.

Disinfectant liquids have been short for some time too. Local distillers generously offered to up their production - also percent-wise. So farmacies can mix some of their own.

 

[Causalien]

It is true that there is a large group of immigrants in Italy working in textile industry from Wenzhou, China, a city heavily affected by the outbreak in Wuhan. But I didnt find any reports from Italy gov/press that the current outbreak originated in local Chinese community. It is a possibility. But it might also be coming from tourists from China/ business travelers of China/Italy. The current situation in Italy is unfortunate. Accusing a specific group or etiquette of Italian people and singling out blacks in Africa without evidence is bordering racism and doesnt help solve the problem. It might just be a combination of timing and bad luck.

P.S. I see you are from P.R.C. Are you originally from People's Republic of China?

Racism is when you behave in a way that indicate you think they are inferior.
Or definition from google: prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism directed against someone of a different race based on the belief that one's own race is superior.

What I actually typed out, is one possible route of infection. There is a large number of chinese workers who returned to Italy. I might be more confident than I thought that they are the ones who infected them. But back then, no other countries were exporting cases except China, Japan and Korea.

I was referring to black's seeming immunity to the virus. Why is it racism to point out certain racial group and certain conjecture to their genes being the cause of immunity? Saying asians seems particularly affected by citing the ace2 study (which everyone is doing) isn't considered racist?

Sometimes, you guys are too sensitive to racism. This is not racism, I know because I've experienced it.

P.R.C is explained in my tittle. Pothead's Republic of Canukstan.

 

[Cherry Wine]

First death in Santa Clara county (CA Bay Area, near Fremont). Woman in her 60s.

1st coronavirus death reported in Santa Clara County

Karen does not live in the US so maybe she doesn't feel it the way we do, but the panic from professional epidemiologists, not amateurs as you seem to insist, is because we are uniquely unprepared for this moment. the idea that when epidemiologists advise that our response so far is completely not up to the moment it isn't because they are naive fools not accounting for the simple things Elon pointed out.

from the fact that we have Trump in charge to the fact that the economy is built on debt susceptible to a shock. Trump is on the record as of Friday for not testing people because he likes the numbers where they are. The correct response is panic. We do need behavioral changes from society to minimize this. So far our situation seems to be Italy 2.0. "Panic"/behavior changes whatever you wanna call it is the correct thing because that's what all the experts are advising. The NYT interview with a doctor from WHO was enlightening on the war like stance China adopted.

I disagreed on the basis that I don't think panic is helpful. Panic does not imply calculated thought in response to alarm but rather blind fear. We need more of the former - people thinking critically about their actions, not making rash decisions that may ultimately not be helpful (as panicked actions often are). We can prepare and protect ourselves without panic as you're advocating; look to South Korea as the example here. Maybe this is just a question of semantics.

 

[Earlian]

So at this time there are about 4000 dead we know about in this deadly virus outbreak in about 8 weeks Worldwide .
Yet the 400,000 deaths mostly children in Africa from malaria (every year) is not in the news as it’s become the norm .What a world we live in...

You answered the question yourself. We live in a world, were people tolerate a permanent cruelty, or threat after some time. We got used to all kind of things: malaria, terrorism, war, car deaths.

So, yes, we will also tolerate the death threat from the virus too.

It is called fatalism. A cruel world, but this kind of mental state (when it is finally reached) is useful, since one can't stand being in shock-state for months.

So, we will move on. But not today or tomorrow. Because first: Things will get even more wild.

Europe got shocked today because of Italy.

->16 million people under quarantine, yesterday over 1400 new cases, today 97 deaths. Since i work in public i talked to a lot people today. Well some of them have friends coming from ski-vacation over there. A group of our small town got quarantined too, because they came home from Lombardy. So, when you feel this is not a far news-story, but a real and close thing happening, it makes something with your mind and even the hardest guys begin to think diffidently. My closest friends and family called today only to check if everybody is fine. If your mindset stays immune to that, you are either without emotion, or close to mental mastery.

And sorry, but most probably the US will freak out, too. Maybe 1-4 weeks from now.

Sure: This is not the end and we will come around! Like always. But it may take some time.

 

[KSilver2000]

You answered the question yourself. We live in a world, were people tolerate a permanent cruelty, or threat after some time. We got used to all kind of things: malaria, terrorism, war, car deaths.

So, yes, we will also tolerate the death threat from the virus too.

It is called fatalism. A cruel world, but this kind of mental state (when it is finally reached) is useful, since one can't stand being in shock-state for months.

So, we will move on. But not today or tomorrow. Because first: Things will get even more wild.

Europe got shocked today because of Italy.

->16 million people under quarantine, yesterday over 1400 new cases, today 97 deaths. Since i work in public i talked to a lot people today. Well some of them have friends coming from ski-vacation over there. A group of our small town got quarantined too, because they came home from Lombardy. So, when you feel this is not a far news-story, but a real and close thing happening, it makes something with your mind and even the hardest guys begin to think diffidently. My closest friends and family called today only to check if everybody is fine. If your mindset stays immune to that, you are either without emotion, or close to mental mastery.

And sorry, but most probably the US will freak out, too. Maybe 1-4 weeks from now.

Sure: This is not the end and we will come around! Like always. But it may take some time.

I somewhat disagree.
I think the bigger reason no one is talking about that situation in Africa is because we’re not in imminent danger from it both physically and economically. But, if there was a threat to our own livelihood, trust me, it would be the talk in town.

Humans are only capable of responding to events that have an imminent danger.

 

[eloder]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

Live updates: Italy expands travel restrictions to entire country, locking down 60 million people in its fight against coronavirus

BREAKING NEWS: The decision, announced Monday night by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, comes just a day after Italy imposed similar restrictions on one-quarter of the country. The rapid acceleration shows that Italian policymakers have come to believe that hard-line measures are the best way to slow the virus’s spread.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

 

[azaz]

First death in Santa Clara county (CA Bay Area, near Fremont). Woman in her 60s.

1st coronavirus death reported in Santa Clara County



I disagreed on the basis that I don't think panic is helpful. Panic does not imply calculated thought in response to alarm but rather blind fear. We need more of the former - people thinking critically about their actions, not making rash decisions that may ultimately not be helpful (as panicked actions often are). We can prepare and protect ourselves without panic as you're advocating; look to South Korea as the example here. Maybe this is just a question of semantics.

perhaps it is semantics because I do not know what the "panic" Musk is talking about then. talk of social distancing, festivals being cancelled, potential lockdowns is what's happening. I haven't seen anything crazy? it's not like large scale rioting is going on or something.

Clearly Musk is framing CV being the #1 topic as panic and the warnings from professionals that so far we have been handling this wrong because the Fed Govt has not had the sense of urgency it should as "panic" that is "dumb". Simply put, I disagree. I believe we are now beginning to have the appropriate discussions, festivals have begun to be cancelled etc.

And now this genius tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter

Musk really thinks this whole thing is a nothing burger, am now at the point where Musk's inability to take this seriously and why the Markets are down (Oil and Wall St having zero faith in Trump to handle this right) may adversely effect Tesla if the global economic climate changes due to forced lockdowns.

 

[Thekiwi]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

HOLY *sugar*

 

[KSilver2000]

perhaps it is semantics because I do not know what the "panic" Musk is talking about then. talk of social distancing, festivals being cancelled, potential lockdowns is what's happening. I haven't seen anything crazy? it's not like large scale rioting is going on or something.

Clearly Musk is framing CV being the #1 topic as panic and the warnings from professionals that so far we have been handling this wrong because the Fed Govt has not had the sense of urgency it should as "panic" that is "dumb". Simply put, I disagree. I believe we are now beginning to have the appropriate discussions, festivals have begun to be cancelled etc.

And now this genius tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter

Musk really thinks this whole thing is a nothing burger, am now at the point where Musk's inability to take this seriously and why the Markets are down (Oil and Wall St having zero faith in Trump to handle this right) may adversely effect Tesla if the global economic climate changes due to forced lockdowns.

Well, if you look on the bright side...If the situation continues to worsen significantly, at least Tesla will still be making cars regardless. Tesla employees and medical professionals will be the only ones out and about in an apocalypse.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I somewhat disagree.
I think the bigger reason no one is talking about that situation in Africa is because we’re not in imminent danger from it both physically and economically. But, if there was a threat to our own livelihood, trust me, it would be the talk in town.

Humans are only capable of responding to events that have an imminent danger.

Drafted, and deleted, a similar response. Humans are "wired" for empathy within their own social circles.

HOLY *sugar*

Indeed. We live in interesting times. GLTA.

 

[EVNow]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

We need this in affected communities within US now.

Nobody will be allowed to leave home, with three exceptions only:
- going to work and come back home, if it is not possible to work from home
- buying food
- using urgent health services​

Wonder whether Musk considers this panic ...

 

[jerry33]

We need this in affected communities within US now.

Nobody will be allowed to leave home, with three exceptions only:
- going to work and come back home, if it is not possible to work from home
- buying food
- using urgent health services​

Wonder whether Musk considers this panic ...

I wouldn't think so. Buying a year's supply of toilet paper is a panic. I seem to recall a toilet paper panic a few years ago too. (Johnny Carson?) And long before TV, there was a War of the Worlds panic (Orson Wells?). Basically people who are in the right mindset, hear something and panic. It's not reasonable, but it happens.

 

[bkp_duke]

We need this in affected communities within US now.

Nobody will be allowed to leave home, with three exceptions only:
- going to work and come back home, if it is not possible to work from home
- buying food
- using urgent health services​

Wonder whether Musk considers this panic ...

You really want a reason to give Trump to declare martial law? I would think that over again.

 

[DrMazeppa]

So, going back to the virus and its impact on the economy....
essentially it is now everywhere, and in a few weeks most advanced economies will have to face similar issues as those in Italy, because apparently we have learned nothing from China, then Korea, then Italy....

Thinking aloud: maybe the best entry back in TSLA is when we have the 'Italian' case in the US. Then the cycle of fear will be over.

 

[dww12]

Where did the surgeon general come up with the average death age as 80? Worldwide, US? Where is that data.