Coronavirus

[PhaseWhite]

We need this in affected communities within US now.

Nobody will be allowed to leave home, with three exceptions only:
- going to work and come back home, if it is not possible to work from home
- buying food
- using urgent health services​

Wonder whether Musk considers this panic ...

I just finished watching tonights White House press conference.

My takeaways;
1. They are pushing a payroll tax cut to help workers.
2. They are directing Americans to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) which redirects to the CDC website section on Coronavirus.
3. CDC & private labs on on track to have 2M tests available, and production capacity for 4M per week going forward.

Sure the payroll tax will help the economy but it's not targeted at the areas we need most like paid sick leave or free testing for those who have symptoms. When we see full on panic, Americans will stop spending money, and getting a few % more in their paycheck won't help that.

Pence mentioned several times how Americans need to follow common sense things like washing our hands and cleaning surfaces. How they are mostly worried about at risk groups like those over 60 or children with compromised immune systems.
I don't see any urgency to implement concrete measures to actually stop the spread in the US. No mention of measures to reduce travel from community spread areas.

Increased testing capacity is good, hopefully in a few weeks time we'll be able to test any symptomatic case but I think we need to be isolating community spread areas, with urgency, not talking about common sense practices.

 

[Feathermerchan]

Data - What is the effect of spring and higher ambient temperatures on influenza?
Flu season will be over soon so does anybody have any data showing how weather affects flu virus(es)?
I've asked this before here and have and no answers...

 

[Singer3000]

perhaps it is semantics because I do not know what the "panic" Musk is talking about then. talk of social distancing, festivals being cancelled, potential lockdowns is what's happening. I haven't seen anything crazy? it's not like large scale rioting is going on or something.

Clearly Musk is framing CV being the #1 topic as panic and the warnings from professionals that so far we have been handling this wrong because the Fed Govt has not had the sense of urgency it should as "panic" that is "dumb". Simply put, I disagree. I believe we are now beginning to have the appropriate discussions, festivals have begun to be cancelled etc.

And now this genius tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter

Musk really thinks this whole thing is a nothing burger, am now at the point where Musk's inability to take this seriously and why the Markets are down (Oil and Wall St having zero faith in Trump to handle this right) may adversely effect Tesla if the global economic climate changes due to forced lockdowns.

Musk is in danger of permanently damaging his credibility if he’s wrong on this. And if he’s not making the proper preparations at his companies, he runs the risk of setting them back years. All very puzzling and concerning.

 

[EVNow]

New numbers from WA.

Also - 2 new nursing homes have confirmed infections. Hopefully those are not as infected as LifeCare.

From the age breakdown - 55 people are in risky category (including 22 deaths).

Live: Coronavirus daily news update, March 9: What to know today about COVID-19 in the Seattle area, Washington state and the nation

 

[Dr. J]

Gottlieb also indicates CFR is around 1%. He says Korean 0.7% rate will rise due to the time it takes the disease to progress. He also differentiates between CFR and IFR, which I found useful.

Similar discussion from a *professional* epidemiologist: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago

"One month ago, I was under the impression that the death reports due to COVID-19 circulation in China were giving us an unfair picture of its mortality rate. I wrote a piece saying that the death rate of an emerging disease always looks bad in the early stages of an outbreak, but is likely to drop once better data become available. After waiting for eight weeks, I am now worried that these new data — data indicating that the virus has a low fatality rate — may not arrive."

 

[kbM3]

I’m waiting for Musk to propose a “Fantastic voyage” like submarine but with nanoscale to fight this virus

Hmm. And as a side bonus it would be less painful if he had to implement a suggestion from a malicious tweet

 

[aubreymcfato]

@aubreymcfato

can you confirm the authenticity of this post. Is it based in this?
Medico Humanitas su Facebook: «Situazione drammatica, altro che normale influenza»

Yes, it is. Sorry for being late.

 

[SageBrush]

So at this time there are about 4000 dead we know about in this deadly virus outbreak in about 8 weeks Worldwide .
Yet the 400,000 deaths mostly children in Africa from malaria (every year) is not in the news as it’s become the norm .What a world we live in...

Along those same lines, ~ 3300 die in car accidents every day in the USA. Year after year.

Covid-19 is a bad disease, but the panic displayed in this thread is pathetic.

 

[EVNow]

Data - What is the effect of spring and higher ambient temperatures on influenza?
Flu season will be over soon so does anybody have any data showing how weather affects flu virus(es)?
I've asked this before here and have and no answers...

I've to look for the links - but from what I remember for this virus
- WHO tells us not to assume warm weather will make the virus go away
- Some pre-pub paper says we can expect lower R0 in summer. So the spreading will slow down (from 3.5 to 2.5)

 

[guidooo]

There is a thread for the question whether humans should use animals for food or not.
Veganism/Leather etc. out of Market Action

Can we please keep this thread to the subject whether we should allow Covid-19 to use homo sapiens as their breeding ground ?

 

[EVNow]

You really want a reason to give Trump to declare martial law? I would think that over again.

I've to look up what he can do under martial law - but the WA Gov can do these. Inslee has been talking about some mandatory measures ….

Under state law, Inslee could cancel large public and private gatherings. He also could set a curfew banning people from being out in public during certain times, prohibit the use of certain streets and highways, and bar the sale of items that could endanger the health of Washington residents. Anyone violating such orders could be found guilty of a gross misdemeanor.​

Seattle law says Durkan could have the authority to close streets and businesses, cancel events, set curfews and enact price controls, though she didn’t reference those powers in her emergency proclamation.​

 

[aubreymcfato]

Note the very different "mortality rates" between regions. Which, of course, means that these aren't actually mortality rates, but rather "there's been way more cases in Lombardy and a few other places than they've actually found"; people who end up in the ICU invariably get tested, but people with a mild cold often escape testing. Most of the past cases that were mild will probably never be identified.

We can only hope that they've gotten better at identifying new cases.

Do you remember that chart that's gone viral, with the due bell curves?
Unfortunately Lombardy hit a high curve, trespassing the threshold of the health system.
As I read it from the newspapers, the system is taking a toll, personel gets infected every day so the mortality rate is going higher.
And this is a very good health service:

Andrea Baronchelli on Twitter

Right now, all of Italy is lockdown. People can go to work, but just that, government is really trying right now.
If we get the Lombardy infection down in the south it will be a massacre.

 

[KarenRei]

Do you remember that chart that's gone viral, with the due bell curves?
Unfortunately Lombardy hit a high curve, trespassing the threshold of the health system.
As I read it from the newspapers, the system is taking a toll, personel gets infected every day so the mortality rate is going higher.
And this is a very good health service:
View attachment 520064
Andrea Baronchelli on Twitter

Right now, all of Italy is lockdown. People can go to work, but just that, government is really trying right now.
If we get the Lombardy infection down in the south it will be a massacre.

A large part of the problem is that because they infection caught them so off guard, they had a lot of healthcare workers end up infected, and others isolated because of exposure to their coworkers. A more prepared healthcare system can do better. Hopefully others won't make that mistake.

Our healthcare system here has broken up into many small teams, which work closely together but isolate from other teams. The idea is that if one member of a team gets infected, the other members of their team need to be isolated and monitored, but other healthcare workers in other teams are not affected.

 

[aubreymcfato]

It is true that there is a large group of immigrants in Italy working in textile industry from Wenzhou, China, a city heavily affected by the outbreak in Wuhan. But I didnt find any reports from Italy gov/press that the current outbreak originated in local Chinese community. It is a possibility. But it might also be coming from tourists from China/ business travelers of China/Italy. The current situation in Italy is unfortunate. Accusing a specific group or etiquette of Italian people and singling out blacks in Africa without evidence is bordering racism and doesnt help solve the problem. It might just be a combination of timing and bad luck.

P.S. I see you are from P.R.C. Are you originally from People's Republic of China?

At the moment, we don't have a patient zero, but a patient 1, in Lodi, near Milan.
Very unfortunately, the hospital did a clusterf**k infecting everyone there.
There are not known cases from Chinese communities, afaik.

 

[eevee-fan]

They both seem to have the same unhealthy addiction to Twitter as well.

Are they Twitter bots?

 

[KSilver2000]

Along those same lines, ~ 3300 die in car accidents every day in the USA. Year after year.

That number sounded quite high. So, I looked it up.
It’s, ~3,300/day globally. Interestingly 1/3 is from US. ‘Murcia!
Not that it makes it any less significant.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen does not live in the US so maybe she doesn't feel it the way we do, but the panic from professional epidemiologists...

Could someone please show me a professional epidemiologist who recommends hoarding toilet paper and who calculates IFRs by dividing fatalities by diagnosed cases and thinks that you can just extrapolate an exponential curve with a fixed exponent to model epidemics? Thanks.

In caveman-speak:

Panic bad.
Hoarding bad.
Poor numbers-inflating-amateur-science bad.
COVID-19 worse than flu.
Flattening-the-curve good.

These are not mutually exclusive concepts. Elon is taking flak - fine. But I fully back what he wrote, because it's right, and I have no interest in having something that is correct be treated as if it's false. The only thing I'd have done differently is conclude with a "... But that said, wash your bloody hands and stay home if you're sick, so that you don't cause problems for other people."

 

[dfwatt]

Along those same lines, ~ 3300 die in car accidents every day in the USA. Year after year.

Covid-19 is a bad disease, but the panic displayed in this thread is pathetic.

Sadly consistent with some of your other posts. You have conflated USA and Global traffic deaths to create an incredibly misleading statistic that supports your minimization of covid 19. Added to that difficulty you have consistently conflated concern with panic. Nice job!

 

[azaz]

Lombardy vs the rest of Italy detected cases fatality rate. Lombardy has reached the inflection point of overloading the local HC system.

 

[KarenRei]

Lombardy vs the rest of Italy fatality rate. Lombardy has reached the inflection point of overloading the local HC system.

View attachment 520073

Still not a fatality rate.

One of the things Elon was (rightfully) complaining about. You cannot simply divide diagnosed deaths vs. diagnosed cases. Period. Anyone who is doing this, stop; it's just plain wrong.