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Lombardy vs the rest of Italy detected cases fatality rate. Lombardy has reached the inflection point of overloading the local HC system.

View attachment 520073
Still not a fatality rate.

One of the things Elon was (rightfully) complaining about. You cannot simply divide diagnosed deaths vs. diagnosed cases. Period. Anyone who is doing this, stop; it's just plain wrong.

Snip the percentages off the right side and the chart is still accurate, the left side and bottom are the actual y and x axis for the graph.

You still have a curve over time comparing the regions with one having a higher absolute number and a different shape over the same time frame.
 
I haven’t seen much explanation for why the countries where Coronavirus first hit are seeing fewer and fewer cases now. China is reporting less than a hundred new cases a day, down from thousands a day. This is a country of 1.4 billion people. 80,000 Chinese have tested positive for corona virus. But that means only one out of approximately 20,000 Chinese have tested positive. Why not more?

China has changed the way they live, they didn't just go back to normal they are still in isolation for the most part.

watch a few walkabout videos from YouTube search=malls+in+china and see how deserted every large space is.

Yeah, they have less new cases, they stopped leaving home.
 
totally 100% unacceptable!

america is in ostrich-mode. what are we, a 3rd world country? we sure are acting like it.
Agreed. It's ridiculous that our government didn't get their act together during two months when they knew this was coming. Some areas are actually running low of kits:
Oregon’s supply of coronavirus tests could run out Wednesday without infusion of kits from feds

Coronavirus: Santa Clara couple now sick after trip on Princess cruise ship, getting tested was another story from March 5th (hope this isn't a repost) about the crazy runaround a couple got who was getting sick and had been on the previous Grand Princess (the ship that just docked in Oakland on Monday with 21 positive COVID-19 cases after testing 45 people) journey where a passenger later died from COVID-19 and others tested positive. Crazy!
 
I listen to leaders in Europe and for some reason they expect that by doing exactly what Italy did for the last month they will get different results than Italy got.

Imo what matter is if R0>1 or R0<1. We clearly know that if we do nothing R0>1 and we know that by doing what China did R0<1. So imo it is pretty clear that either we do nothing and get Italy 2.0 everywhere or we do something that will lower R0, for example some of what China did, and get what China got. So then it just a question of cost/benefit, how much will action x lower R0 and how much will it cost(in dollars, quality of life etc). Then we pick enough low hanging fruit to hopefully get R0<1. Ban flights from Milano/Iran, set up temperature scanners at all borders and in some major public places, encourage hand washing, shut down schools, give ample protection to health workers, shut down public events etc etc. Add stuff until R0<1 and keep it there for 1-2months. Like China did, they now have ~0 local cases outside of Hubei province...
 
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I listen to leaders in Europe and for some reason they expect that by doing exactly what Italy did for the last month they will get different results than Italy got.

Imo what matter is if R0>1 or R0<1. We clearly know that if we do nothing R0>1 and we know that by doing what China did R0<1. So imo it is pretty clear that either we do nothing and get Italy 2.0 everywhere or we do something that will lower R0, for example some of what China did, and get what China got. So then it just a question of cost/benefit, how much will action x lower R0 and how much will it cost(in dollars, quality of life etc). Then we pick enough low hanging fruit to hopefully get R0<1. Ban flights from Milano/Iran, set up temperature scanners at all borders and in some major public places, encourage hand washing, shut down schools, give ample protection to health workers, shut down public events etc etc. Add stuff until R0<1 and keep it there for 1-2months. Like China did, they now have ~0 local cases outside of Hubei province...

LOL. I think the reason lies somewhere in this funny story my contact reported to me.

Germany airport. They are rounding up all the asians together (no matter the nationality) and fast tracking all the white folks... As if Italians do not have infections.
 
Data - What is the effect of spring and higher ambient temperatures on influenza?
Flu season will be over soon so does anybody have any data showing how weather affects flu virus(es)?
I've asked this before here and have and no answers...
I think the answer with this new virus is "we don't know". Normally these kind of viruses spread more easily in winter, yes.
 
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More than 40% of 55+ years old people in the U.S. are working:

upload_2020-3-10_8-17-51.png

For many in the U.S. "staying at home for months" is not a realistic option, because it means:
  • the loss of their job,
  • the loss of employer health insurance (Medicare eligibility begins at 65 years old),
  • and a fall back to poverty.
My guess: many will roll the dice and keep working.
 
Here’s a video of the first case in New Jersey.


Don’t become a statistic. Think about your circle who would be possibly affected if you catch the virus.
I wonder whether this patient, 30yo, no underlying medical condition, works as a physician assistant, considered 20% chance of hospitalization is low enough to take a flyer.
 
actually a good topic for discussion. IS china truly to blame? could this have happened anywhere in the world? was it just mere chance? or something about china that make it unique and originating from there?

people are angry and the whole world is 'messed up' (to put it mildly), right now.

we are trying to deal with it - but we also are quite angry from all this, IF it could have been prevented.

problem is - china is opaque. we may never really know.
 
My wife provided this update to me from the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7. In attendance were physicians from Santa Clara, San Francisco and Orange Counties who had all seen and cared for COVID-19 patients, both returning travelers and community-acquired cases. Also present was the Chief of ID for Providence hospitals, who has 2 affected Seattle hospitals under his jurisdiction. Erin Epson, CDPH director of Hospital Acquired Infections, was also there to give updates on how CDPH and CDC are handling exposed health care workers, among other things. Below are some of the key take-aways from their experiences.

1. The most common presentation was one week prodrome of myaglias, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of dyspnea and average 9 days to onset of pneumonia/pneumonitis. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases. The most consistently present lab finding was lymphopenia (with either leukocytosis or leukopenia). The most consistent radiographic finding was bilateral interstitial/ground glass infiltrates. Aside from that, the other markers (CRP, PCT) were not as consistent.

2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is <=2%, interpret that to mean if you have a positive test for another respiratory virus, then you do not test for COVID-19. This is based on large dataset from China.

3. So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality.

4. Patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease seem to progress with variable rates to ARDS and acute respiratory failure requiring BiPAP then intubation. There may be a component of cardiomyopathy from direct viral infection as well. Intubation is considered “source control” equal to patient wearing a mask, greatly diminishing transmission risk. BiPAP is the opposite, and is an aerosol generating procedure and would require all going into the room to wear PAPRs.

5. To date, patients with severe disease are most all (excepting those whose families didn’t sign consent) getting Remdesivir from Gilead through compassionate use. However, the expectation is that avenue for getting the drug will likely close shortly. It will be expected that patients would have to enroll in either Gilead’s RCT (5 vs 10 days of Remdesivir) or the NIH’s “Adaptive” RCT (Remdesivir vs. Placebo). Others have tried Kaletra, but didn’t seem to be much benefit.

6. If our local MCHD lab ran out of test kits we could use Quest labs to test. Their test is 24-48 hour turn-around-time. Both Quest and ordering physician would be required to notify Public Health immediately with any positive results. Ordering physician would be responsible for coordinating with the Health Department regarding isolation. Presumably, this would only affect inpatients though since we (CHOMP) have decided not to collect specimens ordered by outpatient physicians.

7. At facilities that had significant numbers of exposed healthcare workers they did allow those with low and moderate risk exposures to return to work well before 14 days. Only HCW with highest risk exposures were excluded for almost the full 14 days (I think 9 days). After return to work, all wore surgical masks while at work until the 14 days period expired. All had temperature check and interview with employee health prior to start of work, also only until the end of the 14 days. Obviously, only asymptomatic individuals were allowed back.

8. Symptom onset is between 2-9 days post-exposure with median of 5 days. This is from a very large Chinese cohort.

9. Patients can shed RNA from 1-4 weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unknown if the presence of RNA equals presence of infectious virus. For now, COVID-19 patients are “cleared” of isolation once they have 2 consecutive negative RNA tests collected >24 hours apart.

10. All suggested ramping up alternatives to face-to-face visits, telemedicine, “car visits”, telephone consultation hotlines.

11. Sutter and other larger hospital systems are using a variety of alternative respiratory triage at the Emergency Departments.

12. Health Departments (CDPH and OCHD) state the Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) is the least important of all the suggested measures to reduce exposure. Contact and droplet isolation in a regular room is likely to be just as effective. One heavily affected hospital in San Jose area is placing all “undifferentiated pneumonia” patients not meeting criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.

All PUIs in Monterey Country so far have been negative.