Coronavirus

[willow_hiller]

Just quoting from the main thread:

We aren't allowed to talk about it but my bet is that US cases explode within the next 2 weeks. People aren't taking it seriously at all.

I think this is actually spot on @Nocturnal . This was sent to me by a colleague:

If the trends are matched up correctly, the US is about ~16 days from where Italy is in terms of cases per 10,000, and the UK is about ~13 days off.

I've got some dry powder coming in this week, but I can't decide if Model Y deliveries would be enough of a catalyst for TSLA to buck the macros, or if we're going to need to wait for Battery Day and Q1 P&D. At this moment, I'm leaning toward holding onto my cash until we see whether the US and the UK follow the Italy trend.

 

[EVNow]

War Time Triage - This is what doctors in Italy are saying about rationing healthcare based on how likely the choice of success is. Scary.

Yascha Mounk on Twitter

"In a context of grave shortage of medical resources, the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care. It's a matter of giving priority to 'the highest hope of life and survival.'"

"It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care. This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved."
...
BUT here’s the point I do want everyone to take away from this: Doctors in America will likely be faced with similarly heartbreaking dilemmas very soon. But we can avoid that if we:. * Start engaging in extreme forms of social distancing * Radically expand ICU capacities​

 

[Snapdragon III]

Firstly, hope you wake up feeling a bit better..and progress to symptom free from there.
I am curious as to what was the first symptom?

We both had slightly sore throats and irritated sinus with periods of very minor headaches for a few days leading up to it. At the time we thought it was probably seasonal allergies as the weather here has just started to warm up a little, and pollen is starting. We had been monitoring our temperatures and been rock steady. Sunday evening our both of our temperatures went up about 3 degrees and we had worsening sore throats, very tired feeling, and body aches. We have been about like that for 3 days now with the fever coming and going.

 

[BornToFly]

We both had slightly sore throats and irritated sinus with periods of very minor headaches for a few days leading up to it. At the time we thought it was probably seasonal allergies as the weather here has just started to warm up a little, and pollen is starting. We had been monitoring our temperatures and been rock steady. Sunday evening our both of our temperatures went up about 3 degrees and we had worsening sore throats, very tired feeling, and body aches. We have been about like that for 3 days now with the fever coming and going.

Thank you for the updates. Can I ask your approximate ages? Comorbidities? I hope you feel better soon.

 

[AlexS]

We both had slightly sore throats and irritated sinus with periods of very minor headaches for a few days leading up to it. At the time we thought it was probably seasonal allergies as the weather here has just started to warm up a little, and pollen is starting. We had been monitoring our temperatures and been rock steady. Sunday evening our both of our temperatures went up about 3 degrees and we had worsening sore throats, very tired feeling, and body aches. We have been about like that for 3 days now with the fever coming and going.

So it is like a flu, or what you were reffering to that it is different?

 

[SageBrush]

The incubation range is 2 - 7 days. More than enough for serial transmission to appear concurrent

I should clarify this. By definition incubation means prior to clinical illness, and with few to almost no exceptions people are not infectious until they are clinically ill. So the concurrent appearance of symptoms would not be expected. The thing is though, symptoms and disease progression are highly variable. One person can start off with sniffles for a few days and not consider themselves sick until the symptoms progress while another person can start off with nasty flu symptoms.

The report of concurrent illness should not be taken at face value.

 

[N5329K]

nd with few to almost no exceptions people are not infectious until they are clinically ill

Not necessarily so. One study suggests virus is shed in greater numbers prior to onset of symptoms. Makes evolutionary sense, from the virus' perspective. It would want maximum mobility for maximum spread.
Robin

 

[bkp_duke]

Not necessarily so. One study suggests virus is shed in greater numbers prior to onset of symptoms. Makes evolutionary sense, from the virus' perspective. It would want maximum mobility for maximum spread.
Robin

Link to study please. This contradicts everything published to date, and what both the WHO and CDC are saying. Both the WHO and CDC are saying little to no viral shedding prior to the onset of symptoms.

 

[SageBrush]

I received this advert by email today





It is a useless antibody test. Avoid.

 

[SageBrush]

Not necessarily so.

I've decided to not argue or get annoyed by those playing doctor or evolutionary biologist.

 

[N5329K]

Link to study please. This contradicts everything published to date, and what both the WHO and CDC are saying. Both the WHO and CDC are saying little to no viral shedding prior to the onset of symptoms.

People 'shed' coronavirus early, but most likely not infectious after recovery
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
Read and see if you agree.
Robin

 

[Causalien]

You must be kidding. Out of China, Japan and South Korea data. IMHO the only plausible is SK this time. Japan has Olympics, i.e. incentive to under report.

Another way to look at the data is the death rate as that is harder to fudge. An exhausted healthcare system will see a jump in deaths.

If we are to assume the data are dishonest, then we have to confront a reality where china's reported infected is 10x and death is 6x.

But what is more important is to look at the trend without changing the way it is counted. If a regime is reporting 1 for every 10 consistently, then we can still see the trend in % increase.

 

[SageBrush]

People 'shed' coronavirus early, but most likely not infectious after recovery
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster
Read and see if you agree.
Robin

You do not have to be a doctor to actually read the source material which says

Live virus isolates were obtained from swabs during the first week of illness.

 

[bkp_duke]

People 'shed' coronavirus early, but most likely not infectious after recovery
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
Read and see if you agree.
Robin

This is non-descript: "people who contract the novel coronavirus emit high amounts of virus very early on in their infection". Specifically, it does not explicitly define what is "early on in their infection" - which is exactly what is at dispute here. You read the details on that paper it it implies / infers that all 9 cases (and heaven help us the statisticians would have a field day with making inferences from such a small number) were not monitoring until they presented to a healthcare provider. That by definition is one or more symptoms, even if it is just a low-grade fever or scratchy throat.

HUGE RED FLAG - that paper expressly says it has NOT been peer reviewed, which is the gold standard for "good science".

Having published peer reviewed papers, I would take this one with a huge grain of salt. The raw data is probably accurate, although wanting in statistics, but the conclusions the researchers draw need to be vetted out by the scientific community.


EDIT - on second read, this is most certainly NOT asymptomatic viral shedding. The researchers put this in the first paragraph "We studied viral load courses by RT-PCR in oro- and nasopharyngeal swabs, sputum, stool, blood, and urine in nine hospitalized cases."

They didn't pick 9 random people and watch them get infected and track the progress. They identified them as infected already, and then tracked viral loads.

 

[Causalien]

So it is like a flu, or what you were reffering to that it is different?

I'll let the mainstream media answer you.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Also watch joe rogan's episode on covid19

 

[N5329K]

Not sure why the "playing doctor or evolutionary biologist" is pertinent here. Seems unnecessary.
Here's the passage I found interesting:
"The researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5 in all but two of the patients, who had more serious illness. The two, who developed early signs of pneumonia, continued to shed high levels of virus from the throat until about day 10 or 11.
This pattern of virus shedding is a marked departure from what was seen with the SARS coronavirus, which ignited an outbreak in 2002-2003. With that disease, peak shedding of virus occurred later, when the virus had moved into the deep lungs.
Shedding from the upper airways early in infection makes for a virus that is much harder to contain."
Completely agree about the not-yet-peer-reviewed caution, as well as the small numbers in the study.
Robin

 

[Doggydogworld]

Just quoting from the main thread:



I think this is actually spot on @Nocturnal . This was sent to me by a colleague:

View attachment 520584

If the trends are matched up correctly, the US is about ~16 days from where Italy is in terms of cases per 10,000, and the UK is about ~13 days off.

I've got some dry powder coming in this week, but I can't decide if Model Y deliveries would be enough of a catalyst for TSLA to buck the macros, or if we're going to need to wait for Battery Day and Q1 P&D. At this moment, I'm leaning toward holding onto my cash until we see whether the US and the UK follow the Italy trend.

I don't like these lag trackers. First, outbreaks are local. Seattle metro is closing in on 1.0 cases per 10k - way off the chart (literally). Second, the fact that some countries who were multiple days "ahead" of Italy are now a week behind is a clear sign "days behind" isn't very relevant.

Case count progression depends on how extensively you test and isolate, and when you start. Italy started too late. Seattle started too late (mostly due to CDC/FDA - see excellent NY Times article). With testing finally becoming available we will start to learn where things really stand in the Seattle area and we'll probably uncover other hotspots.

 

[deffu]

We both had slightly sore throats and irritated sinus with periods of very minor headaches for a few days leading up to it. At the time we thought it was probably seasonal allergies as the weather here has just started to warm up a little, and pollen is starting. We had been monitoring our temperatures and been rock steady. Sunday evening our both of our temperatures went up about 3 degrees and we had worsening sore throats, very tired feeling, and body aches. We have been about like that for 3 days now with the fever coming and going.

Sorry to hear that you got sick and hope you and your family have a swift recovery.
I saw stories online that you can enroll in seatle flu study to get tested for covid19. I believe it's funded by Bill Gates's charity.

Elizabeth Schneider

 

[EVNow]

with few to almost no exceptions people are not infectious until they are clinically ill.

Is this what CDC still says ?

ps :

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Transmission

Can someone spread the virus without being sick?

• People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
• Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

WHO officially declares pandemic
BBC News - Coronavirus confirmed as pandemic by World Health Organization
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51839944