Coronavirus

[bhzmark]

Not sure why the "playing doctor or evolutionary biologist" is pertinent here. Seems unnecessary.
Here's the passage I found interesting:
"The researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5 in all but two of the patients, who had more serious illness. The two, who developed early signs of pneumonia, continued to shed high levels of virus from the throat until about day 10 or 11.
This pattern of virus shedding is a marked departure from what was seen with the SARS coronavirus, which ignited an outbreak in 2002-2003. With that disease, peak shedding of virus occurred later, when the virus had moved into the deep lungs.
Shedding from the upper airways early in infection makes for a virus that is much harder to contain."
Completely agree about the not-yet-peer-reviewed caution, as well as the small numbers in the study.
Robin

THat is so anecdotal and small sample and unreliable and unreviewed. But I agree it is interesting. Would be nice to find something more robust on the point to really question the more common evidence that transmissible viral shedding and symptoms start roughly at the same time.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Thank you for the updates. Can I ask your approximate ages? Comorbidities? I hope you feel better soon.

We are both mid 40's. Very healthy, not overweight, exercise regularly.

 

[bkp_duke]

Not sure why the "playing doctor or evolutionary biologist" is pertinent here. Seems unnecessary.
Here's the passage I found interesting:
"The researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5 in all but two of the patients, who had more serious illness. The two, who developed early signs of pneumonia, continued to shed high levels of virus from the throat until about day 10 or 11.
This pattern of virus shedding is a marked departure from what was seen with the SARS coronavirus, which ignited an outbreak in 2002-2003. With that disease, peak shedding of virus occurred later, when the virus had moved into the deep lungs.
Shedding from the upper airways early in infection makes for a virus that is much harder to contain."
Completely agree about the not-yet-peer-reviewed caution, as well as the small numbers in the study.
Robin

Point is: this is SYMPTOMATIC SHEDDING. Not asymptomatic.

All 9 of the patients were already hospitalized for symptoms.

 

[Causalien]

THat is so anecdotal and small sample and unreliable and unreviewed. But I agree it is interesting. Would be nice to find something more robust on the point to really question the more common evidence that transmissible viral shedding and symptoms start roughly at the same time.

I actually read another study where they know the date of transmission as the patients were in close contact of a confirmed cases. Then proceed to swab them for viruses until the symptoms showed up. Can't find the research anymore as it got lost in the huge amount of papers I've read so far.

 

[Flehmenlips]

I personally sort of hope my family and I get Covid-19 on this round while the virus seems to be fairly mild. Hopefully that will allow us to build some natural immunity for the inevitable when the virus cycles back this fall or sometime in the future. I'm worried that on subsequent cycles it could be much more lethal and few of us will have any immunity. Reading about the 1918 influenza, 1st wave was mild, 2nd was terrifyingly deadly to young and healthy. 3rd wave horrific but less than 2nd wave. Why wait for a vaccine when we can receive natural immunity now?

 

[Snapdragon III]

Sorry to hear that you got sick and hope you and your family have a swift recovery.
I saw stories online that you can enroll in seatle flu study to get tested for covid19. I believe it's funded by Bill Gates's charity.

Elizabeth Schneider

I signed up yesterday, and am waiting for the test kit to arrive.

 

[hridge2020]

 

[KSilver2000]

We are both mid 40's. Very healthy, not overweight, exercise regularly.

This is an example of why people shouldn’t be labeling this as just another flu and brushing it off. There are healthy 20-some year olds who have been hospitalized from this virus in my region.

 

[KSilver2000]

The economic impact to the hotels, etc., will be massive.

the president is working to fix that

 

[EVNow]

I signed up yesterday, and am waiting for the test kit to arrive.

BTW, your GP can send the samples to UW, they will test it. Infact now they are handling samples from all over the country.

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Qualitative PCR

 

[kpedraja]

I think I might have the distinction of being the first COVID-19 positive member of TMC. My wife is a provider in Kirkland WA, and was exposed at work. She came down with symptoms Sunday evening, and I came down with almost the exact same symptoms a few hours later. We were only able to get her tested, because she is a health care worker. Normal people can not get tested unless they are bad enough to be hospitalized. Her results came in this morning and she was a "strong positive." We both are miserable, but so far our symptoms are on the mild end of the spectrum. It is very scary. Hopefully our symptoms will remain mild. We also know a number of other health workers who have been infected and had much, much worse times of it, than we have so far. This is definitely not just another flu. We are extremely afraid for ourselves, our parents, our community, and the economy.

Take care of yourselves and get well soon.

 

[kpedraja]

speaking of buffets, good to hear this is happening:

https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local...rily-close-buffets-amid-coronavirus-concerns/

MGM Resorts International says they will be temporarily closing their buffets at ARIA, Bellagio, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor and Excalibur amid coronavirus concerns.
The changes will go into effect on Sunday, March 15, according to their Public Relations department.
The closures are temporary and MGM says it will be evaluated on a weekly basis.

I'm sure all those people sitting right next to each other at the tables and the slots will be just fine.

 

[PamelaRachel]

A 103 year old woman over in China just survived the Coronavirus. Here is hoping everyone gets the care they need to get through it.

 

[dfwatt]

I think I might have the distinction of being the first COVID-19 positive member of TMC. My wife is a provider in Kirkland WA, and was exposed at work. She came down with symptoms Sunday evening, and I came down with almost the exact same symptoms a few hours later. We were only able to get her tested, because she is a health care worker. Normal people can not get tested unless they are bad enough to be hospitalized. Her results came in this morning and she was a "strong positive." We both are miserable, but so far our symptoms are on the mild end of the spectrum. It is very scary. Hopefully our symptoms will remain mild. We also know a number of other health workers who have been infected and had much, much worse times of it, than we have so far. This is definitely not just another flu. We are extremely afraid for ourselves, our parents, our community, and the economy.

Courageous and admirable that you are disclosing this. God's speed in your and your wife's full recovery.

 

[SageBrush]

caution

That is not what I said.
IF you have read the article you would know that the throat swabs were taken from people who presented to the hospital who were ill.
It is nonsensical to turn that into a warning that asymptomatic people may be infectious.

I'm sorry, I just cannot tolerate play doctors in this thread spreading FUD. You are placed on ignore. My list is growing daily.

 

[Molnarnj]

I think I might have the distinction of being the first COVID-19 positive member of TMC. My wife is a provider in Kirkland WA, and was exposed at work. She came down with symptoms Sunday evening, and I came down with almost the exact same symptoms a few hours later. We were only able to get her tested, because she is a health care worker. Normal people can not get tested unless they are bad enough to be hospitalized. Her results came in this morning and she was a "strong positive." We both are miserable, but so far our symptoms are on the mild end of the spectrum. It is very scary. Hopefully our symptoms will remain mild. We also know a number of other health workers who have been infected and had much, much worse times of it, than we have so far. This is definitely not just another flu. We are extremely afraid for ourselves, our parents, our community, and the economy.

I’m so sorry to hear about your and your wife’s illnesses. I hope your symptoms stay mild and wish you a speedy recovery.
this is certainly very scary, given the lack of available tests.

 

[N5329K]

Point is: this is SYMPTOMATIC SHEDDING. Not asymptomatic.

All 9 of the patients were already hospitalized for symptoms.

I see another point: that this particular virus might be front-loaded when it comes to transmissiblity, and that people "going about their normal routines" and not under anyone's observation or care may be actively shedding it. If so, this seems like an important distinction vis a vis SARS, where more virus was shed later - rather than earlier - in the disease process. This may have some important implications for slowing the pandemic, which WHO has finally decided to call it.
On a weird, local note, the pax from that Oakland cruise ship are not all being sent to quarantine at military bases. Not all of them, anyway. Between 4 and 8 will be housed at Asilomar...a local hotel and state park. Where minimum-wage workers will have no choice but to show up for work.
Pretty odd choice.
Robin

 

[Causalien]

Man, I don't know why the feds are trying to hide this or slow down the testing.

There's still so many months to the voting day. Ok, say they slow the testing and disclosure of cases by 1 months. There's still many months to go. Once this virus infects 70% of the population, there's nothing you can do to hide it.

Even the anticipated summer. We are still about 2 months away and in 11 days we'll be like Italy. 2 months is what? Apocalypse?

 

[EVNow]

THat is so anecdotal and small sample and unreliable and unreviewed. But I agree it is interesting. Would be nice to find something more robust on the point to really question the more common evidence that transmissible viral shedding and symptoms start roughly at the same time.

Few things to think about
- This is really a fast evolving scenario. We don't have very many peer reviewed reports. So, we'll have to look at the reputations of authors and how many of their papers have been withdrawn after peer review in the past.
- The confidence with which resident "experts" are saying the disease doesn't spread before symptoms is NOT reflected in what CDC says. CDC just says "thought to be" - a very weak assertion.

ps:

with few to almost no exceptions people are not infectious until they are clinically ill.

​

• People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
• Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

​

 

[bkp_duke]

I see another point: that this particular virus might be front-loaded when it comes to transmissiblity, and that people "going about their normal routines" and not under anyone's observation or care may be actively shedding it. If so, this seems like an important distinction vis a vis SARS, where more virus was shed later - rather than earlier - in the disease process. This may have some important implications for slowing the pandemic, which WHO has finally decided to call it.

This is pretty much how most viruses with upper respiratory prodrome spread. It's nothing novel to Corona. Influenza, rhinovirus, adenovirus, etc. all have a latency phase where people have some mild symptoms, but are actively spreading the virus.