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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You do need regulations. You don’t want fraudsters selling cheaper equipment as N95. That can render a lot of Medical staff infected.
But obviously in pandemic times you need pandemic rules, not regular. This is where the agility and seriousness of federal government matters.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
SP 50% down because of the nonsense.
I think TMC needs to figure out how to handle macro events that overwhelm SP in the investor thread.
- trade wars
- coved-19
- elections
We should see case number 'decelerate' with new policy to stop testing everyone ill, only those hospitalized.
You've just described me the last few weeks.
I remember that post. Wanted to find it for posterity's sake, but never could.
Note, the idea of reusing N-95 mask by zapping it with UV-C light. Smart!
pz1975
Active Member
At my medical office, my staff and I are saturating our masks (after stretching them out so all parts get hit) on both sides with 70% isopropyl alcohol at the end of the day with a squirt bottle. It evaporates pretty quick and the we reuse them the next day. We have extras but want to save them in case the ones we are using get contaminated. Strange days but doing the best we can.
good, not perfect, there are occupations that rely on these masks to protect against a wide variety of life shortening pollutants.
tip for any medics out there.
miners use a lot of P2 face masks (also called N95)
they use both disposable and reusable versions, i doubt the reuseable versions are cosmetically acceptable enough for medical use (even though it is a superior seal and filter, ie sundstrom SR 100 with p3 filter), but their suppliers could've had a few disposable masks available.
edit
https://www.srsafety.com/pub/media/wysiwyg/srsaftey/CompCentre/Articles/Sundstrom_COMP_Corona.pdf
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This aged well. Due to lack of a coherent federal response over the last couple days, at this point, I'm inclined to increase my nationwide total estimate to 350k. And of course the timeline will be extended too, by a few weeks, from an investing standpoint, due to the several day delay (I'm assuming we'll have a mostly nationwide stay-at-home order this week sometime). I think we're probably still on target for 100k in New York, but in other cities across the nation I think we'll see some much higher numbers than we should have, as well. The political balancing act is really hurting things.
I understand the inclination to not put in restrictions where there are apparently no problems, but the lack of testing makes that really hard to ascertain. The virus appears to be nearly everywhere now. Have to act earlier than you would think is appropriate.
McMountain
Member
That news is about a week old, Germany has started exporting equipment again.
Can you tell us what you're seeing in the Vancouver area? Given what happened just south of the border to you, and your large Chinese population (meaning you would think there would have been a lot of travelers to and from China), you'd think Vancouver would be a hot spot.
Yet I'm reading that you guys are just doing baby steps there. No lockdowns. Presumably no surge in patients? How is test availability?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Italy now shutting down completely as health system imploding in the north. Spain to follow in two days. US now has more infections than Spain, rate of infections accelerating. Hoping for good news.
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pz1975
Active Member
This is all anecdotal but testing results are delayed by 1 week or so from time of test (my daughter had a fever and was tested 8 days ago and we just heard today she is negative) Front-line MD test results are coming back in 1 day. I’ve heard some sobering stories about various hospitals in the area being swamped by presumed COVID19 patients (symptoms and/or XR/CT findings). These aren’t showing up in our country’s data yet. As we know the only accurate measure is deaths. And they lag actual cases by days to weeks of course. People are still not in full lockdown here. I went to the grocery store 2 days ago and myself and 2 others were the only ones wearing masks.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
"Lack of testing" is finally going away. Admiral Giroir showed this chart in today's briefing.
This doesn't yet include tests at hospitals and some smaller labs, but it gives the basic idea. More importantly, he said this would continue to increase dramatically in the next period (week). I first heard Adm. Giroir speak at the briefing on Sunday the 15th and it was immediately obvious he meant business. Unlike some of the other suck-up bureaucrats. He heads up the Public Health Service, a military branch I'd never heard of that operates under HHS. At last Sunday's briefing he said they would put a couple thousand drive-thru and walk-up test sites all over the country, each with the ability to collect up to 2000 samples per day. He's already producing results, as shown above, and I believe him when he says testing will continue to ramp dramatically.
Ugh. That's what I feared was going on in Canada. The testing sounds worse than what's going on now in the better parts of the US (but it's probably about the same in other parts of the US).
Is it the usual compliant Canadian press that isn't publicizing what is going on in area hospitals? I grew up in Canada, and one of the culture shocks coming to the US was how loud, some would say sensationalist, the US press was in comparison. Are there any news stories about the hospitals getting swamped?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Not going to happen. Remember, the Trump administration is locked into this being a temporary 15-day shutdown (we're now about 8 days in), and they are group-thinking, thinking that length of time will work, and in 7 more days the mission will be accomplished.
On Friday:
"Q So we’re about a week into your 15-day guidelines. Are you happy with the progress? Would you like to see the 15 days extended?
THE PRESIDENT: I am happy. I am happy with it. We’ll have to see what the results are at the end of 14 days, let’s say. We’ll know by the 15th day to see what we do."
So, as far as I can tell, they are proceeding with policy decisions, and the urgency of action, with the assumption that this will all be over in about 7-8 more days. It is all under control.
Incidentally, in preparation for the success they expect to see, they are now preparing the narrative for assigning blame after the recovery after next week. ( Jeremy MORE PPE NOW Konyndyk on Twitter ) This narrow-minded approach - moving on before succeeding with heading off the crisis - needless to say, has some peril.
The thread is a good read, and if you read the embedded Twitter thread ( Jeremy MORE PPE NOW Konyndyk on Twitter ) from Jeremy, you can see him analyze the issues that the administration had in the leadup to the crisis, and they still seem to be falling into that trap (again):
This is what Jeremy said about the incorrect approach in the lead-up to the crisis:
"Seeing some folks in the mentions saying COVER-UP!! and LIES!!, etc.
To be abundantly clear - I don't think that's the case. I think this was an honest but avoidable mistake, driven by groupthink, unexamined assumptions, and process failure. So by the logic of the assumptions the Task Force was making, and signalling to the public, the USG's posture seemed rational. "
Looks like the same mistake is repeating here - the Trump administration has a narrow policy assumption, and an expectation of a specific result, and they are not planning for all contingencies. While it is not clear to them yet (they'll realize it in a few days), they will be unprepared for any alternative result other than success.
And here's Trump's response to the question about a national lockdown:
"Q Given what Governor Cuomo has done in New York, is there any more consideration to a national lockdown to keep people in their homes?
THE PRESIDENT: I don’t think so. Essentially, you’ve done that in California, you’ve done that in New York. Those are really two hotbeds. Those are probably the two hottest of them all, in terms of hotspots. I don’t think so, because you go out to the Midwest, you go out to other locations and they’re watching it on television but they don’t have the same problems. They don’t have, by any means, the same problem.
New York, California, Miami — the governor is doing an excellent job. Governor DeSantis in Florida. We have some pretty hot spots in Florida too. But we’re generally — and the State of Washington, of course, but that was largely — if you look at it, it was one nursing home that had problems like you wouldn’t believe.
So, no, we’re working with the governors and I don’t think you’ll — I don’t think we’ll ever find that necessary."
He actually does believe this stuff - he thinks that he will not ever need to contemplate a shutdown because:
1) Other than California, New York, and Miami/Florida, the same problem does not exist anywhere else, specifically in the Midwest.
2) The issue in Washington was largely limited to a nursing home.
Basically, he thinks after this week, this issue will be put to rest and we'll start seeing a reduction in cases. As far as I can tell, he does actually believe this (there is no other explanation for the behavior).
So, it's not quite time to trade yet - remember, the market is only pricing in another week or two of shutdown, as Trump has signaled clearly that this will be all over by then. 40% of the people in the country will believe that, for now.
I think their next fallback plan is a vaccine, or possibly hydroxychloroquine. All great options. Remember - Trump is optimistic that those both offer short-term solutions to the crisis as well.
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