Coronavirus

[Thekiwi]

It seems like you're arguing with nobody. No one is disagreeing that the vast majority of people who contract it will be fine.

In related news: on average 5 out of every 6 people who play Russian roulette will be fine.

 

[AMN]

Which articles are you referencing if you don't mind sharing.

Getting a bit OT for this thread, so I'll try to be brief: Iceland has a company named deCODE Genetics, which was designed around doing whole-population genetic studies for disease modeling, so the company has been repurposed into doing randomized sampling of the population to look for COVID-19 in people who are not suspect cases - just the general public. They found the disease in around 1% of the general population over a period of a couple weeks (reported 1 week ago) - an implied per-capita rate twentyfold that of the country's official diagnoses at the time of reporting (which in turn has involved one of the most aggressive testing regimes in the world). Over half had no symptoms whatsoever, and the rest, generally just a minor cold.

In an experiment which started several weeks ago, Italy tested the entire town of Vò in a series of rounds and successfully eradicated the disease from the town. Again, this is one of the few cases of experiments of testing of the general population rather than suspect cases. 3% of the population was determined as infected during the first round. 50-75% of them were entirely asymptomatic. Most of the rest had only minor cold symptoms and did not suspect that they had the disease. During the study, asymptomatic cases usually remained asymptomatic, and most minor cases remained minor.

The net picture is that the disease was already widespread even several weeks ago; that people with no symptoms whatsoever are the majority; and of those with symptoms, symptoms so minor that people don't get tested are by far the most common. To match with the death rate (as severe cases almost always get tested), a widespread disease in the population implies a low IFR (infection fatality rate), and implies that places with overloaded medical systems are overloaded not because the disease sends a large percent of its victims to the hospital, but because a large percent of the population has already gotten infected. This implies that the disease will tend to play itself out sooner.

As mentioned, the other study I mentioned (still preliminary) estimated that Wuhan hit a 19% infection rate at its peak, and that the disease had a non-time-delay IFR of 0,04% and a time-delay IFR of 0,12%. They also found (as others have) that the disease is highly prone to nosocomical transmission (spread inside hospitals and clinics, generally by staff) - that is to say, prone to spread to the most vulnerable of patients. I.e. that stamping out nosocomical transmission is one of the most important steps that can be done. Both Wuhan and Lombardy had extensive problems with nosocomical transmission before the severity of the situation was realized.

ED: Well, so much for trying to be brief...

 

[MXLRplus]

In related news: on average 5 out of every 6 people who play Russian roulette will be fine.

Depends on whether or not you use a Glock I suppose...

 

[dw4ngg]

Which articles are you referencing if you don't mind sharing.

First deCode COVID-19 Findings Are In

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

How about portable, battery-powered masks that purify air with arrays of high-intensity UV leds or ceramic heating elements [cost next to nothing]?

Is something like this possible? I'm asking because I was going to design an air purifier that would also serve double duty as a keyboard/package sanitizer. I figured I'd use multiple UV-C LED's on a Starboard. But, I wasn't sure how much power I needed.

I found a RayVio one that was around $25EA, and it spit out 18mw of radiant power @ 280nm. But, I wasn't sure if that was enough. From some of the application notes on RayVio it seemed like it was at least in the ballpark (there is also a time element as well).

But, I'd much rather design a 3D printable (at least the enclosure part of it) battery-powered air purifier mask that used UV-C LEDs. The part that worries me is there wouldn't be enough time element for the air purifier to purify the air.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients | March 21
... “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy *sugar*, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.” ...
A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica

Well, that was terrifying. Thanks. I already knew I really didn't want it, being a fit 42 year old. Now I really really don't want it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Sorry if already posted, but...Good interactive visualizations of the COVID Tracking data, though he can't spell coronavirus:

Coronovirus Efforts

Looks like you can even edit the code yourself if you want to plot % positive, etc. - though I haven't played with that.

 

[Sean Wagner]

But, I'd much rather design a 3D printable (at least the enclosure part of it) battery-powered air purifier mask that used UV-C LEDs. The part that worries me is there wouldn't be enough time element for the air purifier to purify the air.

I don't know the intensity required to reliably kill off CV. Yes, it may turn out to be a brain fart. If it's very high and needed a lot of power, I was thinking there could be a switch/proximity sensor that triggered the well-shielded UV lights. Might require a spiral chamber and radial pump? [Those two go well together!]

Alternatively, heaters are dirt cheap.

It's past midnight here, so I'll be curious to know what you dug up!

 

[X Fan]

Are we confident that Florida is even bothering to test and report its cases...It seems to have huge discrepancey between expected cases and reported cases...

Well, don't know for sure but testing availability has increased greatly over the last week and one report I saw showed had Lab Corp and Quest with over 1,000 tests each. Other item I'm tracking is hospitalizations.....it's over a 1,000 but I don't know what percent are the elderly with underlying conditions (or younger people too with underlying conditions too).

Sure wish someone could create a test that could predict the "severe" version and patients could be preventively treated.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I don't know the intensity required to reliably kill off CV. Yes, it may turn out to be a brain fart. If it's very high and needed a lot of power, I was thinking there could be a switch/proximity sensor that triggered the well-shielded UV lights. Might require a spiral chamber and radial pump? [Those two go well together!]

Alternatively, ceramic heaters are dirt cheap.
https://www.alibaba.com/product-det...?spm=a2700.details.deiletai6.8.19bb2d01EvxzRz

It's past midnight here, so I'll be curious to know what you dug up!

I've been debating about this one.
https://www.digikey.com/products/en?keywords=1807-1010-nd

It's too expensive at Digikey, and other vendors seem to want people to go through the whole request a quote thing. Even when they already say what the price is going to be.

I might still get it because I don't think there is any question that it can sanitize a keyboard.

 

[SageBrush]

Other item I'm tracking is hospitalizations.....it's over a 1,000

Hospitalization for any cause, or something else ?

 

[sparcs]

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS 25,493 US

US is #3 according to that site. cases are picking up. i'm guessing a product of the testing ramp.

Strangely Illinois and Michigan are showing more cases than Florida. I find that highly suspect or maybe Florida is due for an update?

Texas starting to add to the count as well.

 

[vwman111]

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS 25,493 US

US is #3 according to that site. cases are picking up. i'm guessing a product of the testing ramp.

Strangely Illinois and Michigan are showing more cases than Florida. I find that highly suspect or maybe Florida is due for an update?

Texas starting to add to the count as well.

Does anyone know if Florida is performing tests? Or are they choosing to not test in order to suppress the number of case?

 

[sparcs]

Does anyone know if Florida is performing tests? Or are they choosing to not test in order to suppress the number of case?

this site has Florida up to 764, but still lower than Michigan. Maybe Florida testing hasn't caught up?

United States Coronavirus: 25,896 Cases and 316 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[SageBrush]

Does anyone know if Florida is performing tests? Or are they choosing to not test in order to suppress the number of case?

To a degree testing suppression, but mostly they are affected by the brain-dead trump plan that delayed volume test production by a couple of months.

This site
Here’s How Many People Have the Coronavirus in Your State
Reports total tests. Correct for population and start of outbreak for a better indication.

 

[Shayne]

can not follow this thread entirely but if not posted and you need a smile right about now,

 

[SMAlset]

In related news: on average 5 out of every 6 people who play Russian roulette will be fine.

Do they then go on to sicken or kill others?

 

[SMAlset]

#New Orleans
A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients | March 21
... “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy *sugar*, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.” ...
A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica

Well, that was terrifying. Thanks. I already knew I really didn't want it, being a fit 42 year old. Now I really really don't want it.

Yes thanks for commenting on that link and to @Sean Wagner for posting it. Yes, that was a eye opening article of what goes on in the infected lungs; very well written for a layman's consumption. I know we've been hearing more so that under 50s are accounting for maybe 40+ percent of the ICU beds in places and also been hearing about how this disease can damage your lungs and doing simple things like walking can be hard afterwards because of being out of breath. I'm glad you guys have been discussing this disease for a while now and been following along and feel probably more informed than the average person out there, and likely much more so than the citizens in states that have yet to see the rising numbers where they live. It's not exactly news you want to consume but all the same important to realize the seriousness of the disease and things you can do to try to stay healthy during this time until treatments or a vaccine become available.

 

[CSFTN]

IIRC, Medtronics ventilator mfg is in Ireland? Medtronics requested we not shutter our doors. Ditto for other medical device companies. Every day we don't work, adds one day to the release of all the medical devices we are working on.

Medtronics did an inversion and nominally is now an Irish company. IIRC they have a number of factories around the world including Minneapolis, Boston, Memphis, Ireland, and China.

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon Musk: Should Have 1000 Ventilators Next Week, + 250,000 N95 Masks For Hospitals Tomorrow — CleanTechnica Exclusive | CleanTechnica

That's a lot of masks to just have lying around, isn't it?

Is it? If you have 10k employees and need to hand one out to each every day that is only 25 days worth.

And really you are only supposed to use them for up to 8 hours, so a 10 hour shift would require 2 masks per person cutting your days of supply closer to 12.