Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

That's why everything is misleading.

No, this is why everything has uncertainty.
The armchair medical analysts end up with garbage because, as your example demonstrates, basic understanding of infection is missing.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

"with no symptoms" and "truly asymptomatic folks", or am I misunderstanding?

Sorry, just a misstatement on my part. I edited and screwed it up - totally said the wrong thing. Should have read: 50-75% refers to asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic folks. And the % is probably wrong for that matter. If I had to guess out of every 10 people with the disease, in South Korea:

10% - asymptomatic and recover.
30% - mildly symptomatic, not tested, recovered
60% - tested (1.8% of whom die...)

There is also the uncounted dead - no idea how many of those in Korea. But won’t worry about that.

Obviously all a total guess, the exact amounts are not based on data or anything. But that seems conceivable.

 

[Norbert]

No, this is why everything has uncertainty.
The armchair medical analysts end up with garbage because, as your example demonstrates, basic understanding of infection is missing.

What example? I asked questions for clarification.

Here are examples:

Specifically, regarding the South Korea numbers, it looks like the CFR is heading towards 2% long term (if not higher). People who have no symptoms at first (which is everyone) but develop symptoms later on, are likely to be tested eventually in SK and contribute to the CFR.

Only those infected who remain without symptoms are less likely to be tested in SK, but some percentage of them are tested as well, as a result of tracing and of additional testing like in that church.

If 25% is an upper bound for those infected who remain without symptoms enough not to be ever tested in SK, it means that the number of total cases is 75% of the number of infected, so a ratio of 4 to 3. That means IFR would be 3/4 of the CFR of 2%, which is 1.5%.

On the one hand, there seems to be a gray zone with mild symptoms, where it is not clear to me yet if they are included in the CDC number, on the other hand SK's CFR does include some percentage of both mild and non-symptomatic case.

A different question is if there could be 50% to 75% infected without symptoms at a specific of time of testing. At the very beginning of a spread, all infected could still be without symptoms, so the number could be as high as 100% theoretically. At the end of a spread, the number should go down to 25%, if I understand the CDC number correctly. So for a specific test at a specific time, the number could be anywhere between 25% and 100%.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I’d blame Mitch on not restocking. Recall he fought most stimulus programs and we had the budget limits for defense and social spending until Trump was elected. It succeeded in reducing the deficit 75%, but limited defense restructuring and inhibited wise social spending.

But that isn’t what happened. The money was funded by Congress, the Obama admin just spent it on other stuff like anthrax vaccines.

 

[SageBrush]

What example? I asked questions for clarification.

No, you said

So If I differentiate the following groups, which ratio does 25% refer to, and which ratio does 1% refer to, and what are any other ratios for which you have an estimate:

1) not infected
2) infected without any symptoms
3) infected with mild symptoms
4) infected with serious symptoms
5) infect and dead or bound to die.

The answer is none of your choices. The correct answer is that up to 25% are "asymptomatic" at the time of testing, and that "asymptomatic" is in the eyes of patient.

CFR is best examined examined with stat methods as the infection growth rate over time has reduced uncertainty, but it is a mistake to presume that one country is similar to another because the environmental variables matter a lot more than the infection itself. As for IFR -- forget about it until random sampling is undertaken. There is not much to be said for now beyond the range we are seeing in countries with ~ 0 growth rates for 2+ weeks

 

[Norbert]

No, you said

The answer is none of your choices. The correct answer is that up to 25% are "asymptomatic" at the time of testing, and that "asymptomatic" is in the eyes of patient.

No, especially early in the spread the percentage at time of testing can be higher than 25%. And actually there are examples of that.

But I never meant to ask about the time of testing. Almost anything can happen at the time of testing, depending on who you test. I meant to ask about the percentage in the long run.

CFR is best examined examined with stat methods as the infection growth rate over time has reduced uncertainty, but it is a mistake to presume that one country is similar to another because the environmental variables matter a lot more than the infection itself. As for IFR -- forget about it until random sampling is undertaken. There is not much to be said for now beyond the range we are seeing in countries with ~ 0 growth rates for 2+ weeks

Those points are probably obvious ones (not sure I you mean what I think you mean), but we want to understand the situation with the limited data that we have. The data we have for looking at the later stages of a spread happens to come mostly from China and SK, so that's what I am looking at, and trying to understand.

 

[nwdiver]

Pandemic causes person to become unemployed => Person loses health insurance because they live in 'Merca were health insurance is linked to employment => Person gets sick because of the pandemic that caused them to become unemployed and also lose their health insurance. Now sick with no job, no income and no health insurance.

A house of cards is more stable than this. When are we going to fix this insanity? I'm tired of lying to people and saying I'm Canadian out of shame......

How do 3 million newly unemployed people get health care?

 

[Papafox]

Pandemic causes person to become unemployed => Person loses health insurance because they live in 'Merca were health insurance is linked to employment => Person gets sick because of the pandemic that caused them to become unemployed and also lose their health insurance. Now sick with no job, no income and no health insurance.

A house of cards is more stable than this. When are we going to fix this insanity? I'm tired of lying to people and saying I'm Canadian out of shame......

How do 3 million newly unemployed people get health care?

My understanding is that if someone shows up at a hospital ER in need of treatment, they will be treated, health insurance or no health insurance. If the person cannot afford to pay the bill, they can either negotiate a smaller amount (with the help of people who do this for a living) or they simply cannot pay and the hospital may end up eating the cost.

If this representation of mine is inaccurate, someone currently working in hospitals please chime in.

 

[Electroman]

P


Please tell me this is a sarcastic comment. Soap doesn't kill or disintegrate anything. All soap does is facilitate the removal of bacteria and viruses from surfaces. The bilipid nature of soap means it stick to both hydrophobic and hydrophilic things. Soap never has and never will kills germs.

Alcohol bases things like hand gel do denature viruses. BUT SOAP DOES NOT. That is why you must thoroughly scrub and rinse.

If we can't get people to realize that after 3 months of this damn thing we are screwed.

All right then. What is the function of hand sanitizers? Does it kill? if so why not use them to disinfect the masks?

 

[eevee-fan]

My understanding is that if someone shows up at a hospital ER in need of treatment, they will be treated, health insurance or no health insurance. If the person cannot afford to pay the bill, they can either negotiate a smaller amount (with the help of people who do this for a living) or they simply cannot pay and the hospital may end up eating the cost.

If this representation of mine is inaccurate, someone currently working in hospitals please chime in.

Wow, must be nice, so just go to the ER and get any care you need and if it bankrupts you, then you get to skip out on the bill. The current system is perfect and takes care of everyone regardless of insurance status or the ability to pay. Wait, are you talking about Cuba or USA?

 

[eevee-fan]

Washington state nonprofit files lawsuit saying Fox News misled viewers about coronavirus

 

[1208]

Pandemic causes person to become unemployed => Person loses health insurance because they live in 'Merca were health insurance is linked to employment => Person gets sick because of the pandemic that caused them to become unemployed and also lose their health insurance. Now sick with no job, no income and no health insurance.

A house of cards is more stable than this. When are we going to fix this insanity? I'm tired of lying to people and saying I'm Canadian out of shame......

How do 3 million newly unemployed people get health care?

I wonder how many people need to suffer because of this, before they are out on the streets protesting, saying enough is enough?

 

[cgiGuy]

I wonder how many people need to suffer because of this, before they are out on the streets protesting, saying enough is enough?

No.. no.. no... protest from home!

 

[Norbert]

So...it might still be close to 1%. Because while there may not be that many truly asymptomatic people, surely there are a considerable number of Koreans who had a mild illness, who thought they were likely COVID-19 cases, who simply stayed home and did not get tested, and did not infect anyone else. This is presumably happening in New York (perhaps by the hundreds of thousands - hard to know right now how many people), as we discuss this.

I agree that it might be. I see no reason to be completely certain about 1.5% either, so to speak. I'm not aware of any scientist who puts this number that high (yet). It just makes sense to me based on the limited and unreliable data that we have available in public, and the general impression that things still get underestimated. Maybe there is some other reason that makes estimates go upward, makes the low CFRs that were quoted go higher, and so on. Maybe it is just me, but to me it looks like they all have to adjust upwards.

 

[Messagepads]

This pandemy is affecting the entire world at different degrees but we will overcome this, as we did with the previous ones.

The attitude of our leaders and of the population will impact the time needed to cross this ordeal.

 

[guidooo]

If we've hardly done any testing+most people have no or mild symptoms=how do we have any accurate sense of how many people really are/have been infected?

In the Netherlands blood donations are being tested to get some insight in that matter:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...blood-donations-for-unseen-coronavirus-spread

 

[cwerdna]

Not sure if this is a repost:
Inside China's Smartphone 'Health Code' System Ruling Post-Coronavirus Life

BY ASSOCIATED PRESS

APRIL 2, 2020
(WUHAN, China) — Since the coronavirus outbreak, life in China is ruled by a green symbol on a smartphone screen.

Green is the “health code” that says a user is symptom-free and it’s required to board a subway, check into a hotel or just enter Wuhan, the central city of 11 million people where the pandemic began in December.

The system is made possible by the Chinese public’s almost universal adoption of smartphones and the ruling Communist Party’s embrace of “Big Data” to extend its surveillance and control over society.

Walking into a Wuhan subway station Wednesday, Wu Shenghong, a manager for a clothing manufacturer, used her smartphone to scan a barcode on a poster that triggered her health code app. A green code and part of her identity card number appeared on the screen. A guard wearing a mask and goggles waved her through....

 

[renim]

'
In the present study, 204 patients with COVID-19 and full laboratory, imaging, and. historical data were analyzed. The average age was 52.9 years (SD ±16), including 107 men. and 97 women. Although most patients presented to the hospital with fever or respiratory
symptoms, we found that 103 patients (50.5%) reported a digestive symptom, including lack of appetite (81 [78.6%] cases), diarrhea (35 [34%] cases), vomiting (4 [3.9%] cases), and
abdominal pain (2 [1.9%] cases). If lack of appetite is excluded from the analysis (since it is less specific for the gastrointestinal tract), there were 38 total cases (18.6%) where patients presented with a gastrointestinal-specific symptom, including diarrhea, vomiting, or abdominal
pain. Patients with digestive symptoms had a significantly longer time from onset to admission than patients without digestive symptoms (9.0 days vs. 7.3 days). In 6 cases there were digestive
symptoms but no respiratory symptoms. As the severity of the disease increased, digestive symptoms became more pronounced. Patients with digestive symptoms had higher mean liver
enzyme levels, lower monocyte count, longer prothrombin time, and received more antimicrobial treatment than those without digestive symptoms.'

https://journals.lww.com/ajg/Documents/COVID_Digestive_Symptoms_AJG_Preproof.pdf

 

[SageBrush]

My understanding is that if someone shows up at a hospital ER in need of treatment, they will be treated, health insurance or no health insurance. If the person cannot afford to pay the bill, they can either negotiate a smaller amount (with the help of people who do this for a living) or they simply cannot pay and the hospital may end up eating the cost.

If this representation of mine is inaccurate, someone currently working in hospitals please chime in.

Think 'credit card company' where you wrote 'hospital' and you have the right flavor

 

[renim]

so one way to dice covid19 afflicted.

Respiratory and gastro
Respiratory only
Gastro only
Asymptomatic
(Order of severity)