Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Essentially what we should do - rank every scenario by transmitability. If low transmit, then resume. High transmit can stay closed or must enact mitigation.
Low transmit would be most outdoor activities, or anything where people can stay spaced out and good ventilation.
High transmit would be where people are close together and poor ventilation.

Ok, so most people could not go back to work? What are you trying to accomplish?

I'm basing it on this: IHME | COVID-19 Projections

We're approaching the maximum rate of deaths, which lags the maximum rate of positive diagnoses by about two weeks, which lags the maximum rate of infections by about one to two weeks. Aligns fairly well with March 22nd.

I'm not sure how this supports your argument that the New York Pause caused a bunch of infections?

 

[blckdmp]

That's all employees. My numerator was for uniformed patrol cops. There's something like 18k of those.

The New York City Police Department (NYPD) is the largest and one of the oldest municipal police departments in the United States, with approximately 36,000 officers and 19,000 civilian employees.
About NYPD - NYPD

 

[dhanson865]

I would hope all restaurant workers are doing that now as they prepare takeout food. In reading all the stories of meat processing shutdowns due to “positive” workers I have to wonder if the meat processed is contaminated. Need some transparency on this too.

I for one like my meat well done (or on the edge between medium well and well done) so I'm not worried about that. But if you are the type to sous vide your steak rare or medium rare and then sear the outside that might be a problem.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'm basing it on this: IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Look up New York

Here's the daily hospital admissions in NYC for COVID-19. You can see that the number stopped increasing a week after NY Pause went into effect 3/22. That makes sense to me since it takes about a week from infection until hospitalization. Note that this implies that the reproduction rate is still about 1, not good. (note that it takes a few days for them to collect the most recent few days of data). I don't see how you can interpret this as anything other than exponential growth before lockdown and much slower growth after lockdown.

COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

I think you should look to Sweden to see how well your ideas will work. They have not been able to protect their vulnerable populations even though that has been their explicit goal. They have chosen to take minimal measures and allow the virus to spread through the population. It does look they are going to change their strategy soon.

 

[Doggydogworld]

There are 202k "confirmed cases" in NYC and 10,834 deaths. That's with hospitals refusing to test asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, or moderately symptomatic patients. I think it's fair to say that methodology is going to count maybe 10% of total actual infections at best, I would wager it's actually lower than 5%.

First, New York is a state. NYC proper has the majority of those cases and deaths, but not all of them. If their testing catches 10% of infections, as you suggest, then the state has 2m infections. That's 10% of their population.

4/10 is currently the peak for US deaths per worldometer:

4/10: 2035
4/11: 1830
4/12: 1528
4/13: 1535

View attachment 532209

4/14: 2154 and counting. A new peak.

 

[SMAlset]

Sorry if already posted, no time to check back pages, but here’s a study conducted that was halted due to deaths.

General public reading:
Study of High-Dose Chloroquine For COVID-19 Stopped Early Due to Patient Deaths

Pre-print of study in Medrxiv:
Chloroquine diphosphate in two different dosages as adjunctive therapy of hospitalized patients with severe respiratory syndrome in the context of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection: Preliminary safety results of a randomized, double-blinded, phase IIb clinical trial (CloroCovid-19 Study)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine's most recent worldwide IFR estimate is 0.1-0.36. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

We've already discussed this scraping site in this thread. Why do you keep posting from it? We're fairly sure it is clickbait, though they have a very fancy sounding name. Also, their CFR (not IFR) estimate as of April 9th is 0.72% (this estimate has little value to me). "Our current best assumption, as of the 9th April, is the CFR is 0.72% – the lowest end of the current prediction interval and in line with several other estimates."

This estimate has progressively been increasing...yet, they also say: "The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and trend downwards." (The opposite of what their analysis has shown.)

Here are a couple snapshots of their estimates from March 26th...compare the confidence intervals to their recent "analysis:"

It is important to not pollute the discussion about CFR/IFR with bad information, as it is dangerous to public health. This CEBM has nothing to add to the discussion.

Here is the recent data from a few countries. They are way outside their CI for many countries, already (Look at Germany, Italy, for example)! I suspect an issue with their method.... :

 

[TheTalkingMule]

First, New York is a state. NYC proper has the majority of those cases and deaths, but not all of them. If their testing catches 10% of infections, as you suggest, then the state has 2m infections. That's 10% of their population.

Gak! Sorry, really not putting the time in that these other nutjobs seem to have on their hands.

110425 cases in NYC
7905 deaths in NYC

I assumed hospitals were "catching" 7.5% of actual infections which would equal 1,472,333 infections in NYC and a mortality of 0.537%.

Apologies. Stand by all my related statements.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

4/14: 2154 and counting. A new peak.

Easter Sunday/ Monday lag? I believe we've been seeing a weekend lag since the start.

 

[EinSV]

The University of Oxford is one of the top universities in the world and the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine is a very well respected academic institution. Hardly clickbait.

CEBM is the academic lead for Oxford University's Graduate School in Evidence-Based Healthcare, together with the Department of Continuing Education at the University of Oxford. The Graduate School includes a MSc in Evidence-Based Health Care[2] and a DPhil in Evidence-Based Health Care.[3] along with a range of short courses, including a course on the History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Healthcare.

Levels of Evidence
CEBM has developed a widely adopted[5] systematic hierarchy of the quality of medical research evidence, named the levels of evidence. Systematic reviews of randomised clinical trials (encompassing homogeneity) are seen as the highest possible level of evidence, as full assessment and aggregated synthesis of underlying evidence is possible.

Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine - Wikipedia​

Their IFR estimates fall well within the range of many other top epidemiologists. Dismissing test results because of assumptions about whose estimates about IFR are correct is backwards, in my opinion.

Let's stick with data and evidence, not personal attacks or broadsides at institutions we don't agree with.

 

[RandomJohnny]

Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 PEP - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov

Any comments on why they are using Vitamin C as placebo?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine is a very well respected academic institution, hardly clickbait.

Their IFR estimates fall well within the range of many other top epidemiologists.

Edit: I finally found their IFR estimate - which they arrived at by the very technical method of dividing their CFR estimate by 2 . My point is that their estimates are going one direction... Well respected?

They say this:

Their CFR estimate has progressively been increasing...yet, they also say: "The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and trend downwards." (The opposite of what their analysis of their CFRs has shown - and also the opposite of what has been observed in this pandemic (due to lack of testing resulting: exponential case growth outstrips test capacity).)

 

[dqd88]

Ok, so most people could not go back to work? What are you trying to accomplish?



We're approaching the maximum rate of deaths, which lags the maximum rate of positive diagnoses by about two weeks, which lags the maximum rate of infections by about one to two weeks. Aligns fairly well with March 22nd.

I'm not sure how this supports your argument that the New York Pause caused a bunch of infections?

Yes they can work, just wear mask, or make it optional. A young, healthy person can go about per usual.

 

[EVNow]

The mask statement wasn't tied to the restaurant statement. I would assume you take off masks while you're eating. And servers & others will wear masks.

Restaurants would be the most difficult to open safely. Next only to schools/child care.

There are so many problems with handling dishes, cutlery etc. Even chairs and tables. Are they going to wash hands every time after touching a dish or chair ? I don't think I'll feel safe going to a restaurant anytime soon.

BTW, with small children that we didn't want to catch a cold - we had to deal something like this a lot. We used to wipe down tables/chairs etc. But none of those would prevent Covid infection if a server is infected. The risk earlier was getting a cold for a week and a severe case would be an ear infection. Now its a trip to the hospital/ICU with a real possibility of not returning.

So, its not just whether the various governments would allow restaurants to open - but their businesses would probably down for a year or two.

 

[SageBrush]

Yes they can work, just wear mask, or make it optional. A young, healthy person can go about per usual.

I hope you will find nice company in my null bucket

 

[Daniel in SD]

Let's stick with data and evidence, not personal attacks or broadsides at institutions we don't agree with.

Their data has been wrong the vast majority of the time though. Just look at how many times things they say with 95% confidence turn out not to be true. I don't see how anyone can trust a source that is wrong so often.

 

[EVNow]

Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine's most recent worldwide IFR estimate is 0.1-0.36. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

3 weeks back - not exactly well received.

New update from the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. Based on Iceland's statistics, they estimate an infection fatality ratio between 0.05% and 0.14%. : COVID19

ps : When the denominator is not known, you can't figure out IFR.

 

[Daniel in SD]

3 weeks back - not exactly well received.

Here's what they said on March 26th:
"Therefore, to estimate the IFR, we used the estimate from Germany’s current data 22nd March (93 deaths 23129) cases); CFR 0.51% (95% CI, 0.44% to 0.59%) and halved this for the IFR of 0.26% (95% CI, 0.22% to 0.28%) based on the assumption that half the cases go undetected by testing and none of this group dies. Our assumptions, however, do not account for some exceptional cases, as in Italy, where the population is older, smoking rates are higher, comorbidities may be higher, and antibiotic resistance is the highest in Europe, which all can act to increase the CFR and the subsequent IFR."

Why do they keep changing their method of calculating IFR?
Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM
Sorry, anyone stupid enough to use this method is not worth listening to.

 

[EinSV]

3 weeks back - not exactly well received.

New update from the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. Based on Iceland's statistics, they estimate an infection fatality ratio between 0.05% and 0.14%. : COVID19

ps : When the denominator is not known, you can't figure out IFR.

The top upvoted comment and top upvoted response to that comment are:

Statistical_Methods
458 points·19 days ago
This is why we need the antibody tests.

Theseus_The_King
239 points·19 days ago
I would not be surprised if by the middle or end of summer some places actually have herd immunity or pretty damn close, we missed all these nearly asymptomatic infections where the person cleared it and is now walking around immune.​

New update from the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. Based on Iceland's statistics, they estimate an infection fatality ratio between 0.05% and 0.14%. : COVID19​

I would hardly characterize that as dismissive of the analysis (which many here are doing).

Anything else about the New York hospital study? Otherwise we're just wasting time going in circles (again) on IFR.

 

[defc0n]

All this talk of different strategies resulting in different calculated amounts of deaths reminded me of a scene from the old movie "Dr. Strangelove". I was going to avoid posting a clip (maybe a bit in bad taste), but then your "defc0n" username pushed me over the edge:

I took the name after watching War Games as a kid