I immediately assumed he must have another relationship problem FWIW.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
I immediately assumed he must have another relationship problem FWIW.
Florafauna
Member
I'm not so sure about that. December 31st 9999 is looming...
There is a smidgen of risk here. You are correct that demand may skyrocket. IANAL, but the issue that could come up is that if the holder of IP is not able to meet demand. IP rights can be at risk if the case can be made that Gilead cannot meet the need. Gilead may be in a situation where opening the IP to all comers is their best recourse. I suspect that Gilead has already started contracting out as much capacity as they can.
Manufacturing drugs is a daunting process. IV administration is limiting. There needs to be a shot or pill if possible. Best kind of problem to have though...
deonb
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
Something like this from Purdue school of engineering, YMMV.
The moving guys from Dire Straights' "money for nothing" should have worn better PPE.
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To be blunt and at risk of error, I do have some perspective:
First, we know with certainty that some jurisdictions in various countries do manipulate data. Here are some from this morning only;
Miami Herald reported today that FL Medical Examiners were now prohibited from releasing data after their aggregate death counts were 10% higher than State reports;
O Globo reported this morning that some favelas (slums)in three States SP, RJ, MG are now sometimes unable to get removal of corpses because of lack of morgue capacity. None have been hospitalized or treated so are uncounted as cases or deaths;
New York Times this morning reported that CDC data shows "total deaths in seven States that have been hard hit...are nearly 50% higher than normal for the five weeks from march 8 through April 11...";
I did not link any of those because they are being reported widely and copious corroboration is easily findable. if I need to I can post the links. There are others, including not counting nursing home fatalities, finding corpses in trailers when neighbors complained about the bad smells, abandoned nursing home in IIRC Madrid.
We need no conspiracy theories nor even analytics to know there is massive excess mortality right now in many places. How do we know? Funeral homes, morgues and cemeteries are overwhelmed in many places in many countries. Use only that single metric, corpse processing backlogs, and it becomes evident that systematic undercounting is happening.
Again, no conspiracy is needed. Much of the probable undercounting is due to people undiagnosed up to and including death. Much also is certainly due to uninfected people with acute diseases that are untreated due to COVID-19 overload, such as heart failure.
Where ever we are in the world we need to be very concerned. If this catastrophe teaches us anything it is that few countries are well prepared for novel health risk. Taiwan, stands alone as a stellar example despite its [formal] exclusion from WHO and most international organisations. Others from Singapore to Germany to Canada, New Zealand and Finland, have managed to devise practical solutions. Those have varied greatly in tactics and strategy, with Singapore as the stellar example of a society that exists and thrives due to global commerce using huge proportions fo imported labor.
All the good examples share exhaustive data, some obsessively so. All track cases and map individual cases physical movements, seeking testing of people who may have been exposed. Each has strong health systems with a generous supply of emergency services including ICU's at the ready to activation if needed. Each was fast and efficient in establishing testing and PPE.
Of the major countries with the worst case results there is little surprise. Each has major political and social difference with consequential lack of central government social control. Oddly all but one of them have national health systems. Every one have major political differences. Linguistic diversity might be a factor, but each of the best examples is multi-lingual.
Net, none of these total infection estimates are particularly credible IMHO. The inescapable obvious reason to be very worried is the lack of preparedness and quick professional response.
The candidates for my personal avoidance list are some fo my favorite places and a couple less so: more or less in order:
UK, US, Spain, Italy, France. Notably each fo them has very large socially and economically disenfranchised residents, coupled with acute political disarray including demonization of minorities.
Some of that is shared in some fo the best examples, but not all of it, and all the good examples still provide good health care for their 'detested classes'.
From my perspective COVID-19 is not in itself catastrophic. It is with no doubt 'a canary in a coal mine'.
deonb
Active Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Merc has reopened the Alabama plant with 4K workers. Temp checking, social distancing etc. it will be a good test case.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Agreed. The problem is that right now, for reasons I don’t understand at all, tests are difficult to come by.
True.
In general what you are saying will work, but we actually have to have it in place before opening up. They need to get to it, rather than having Elon raging on Twitter and on conference calls about fascism.
I think so. The test just locks onto a sequence of the RNA and amplifies it. But a functioning coronavirus requires the envelope to be intact to be able to enter the cell via receptor mediated fusion. So you can definitely have non viable RNA fragments floating around for amplification to go nuts on.
Mechanisms of Coronavirus Cell Entry Mediated by the Viral Spike Protein
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The vast majority of Americans are sitting at home watching CNN all day. News has an interest in keeping fear to a maximum
Goal is to get to China’s numbers? Anyone who thinks China is being remotely honest with their numbers is a fool.
we already had a test case last month. It’s called giga Shanghai. It worked
Basing a hypothesis only on a "cui bono" argument without any other compelling evidence is the hallmark of a conspiracy theory.
And by the way: from the evidence, a large number of people is sitting at home watching Fox News (including someone in a large white building in Washington, DC).
Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:
"We continue to see a decline in numbers. We still have many sick patients in the hospital but the trends have been favorable for us.
The rest of the country is talking about reopening. We have concerns about reopening too fast.
Reopening carries some risk to it, so we hope it will be done in a thoughtful and measured manner.
1753 Monday, 1661 today
613 vented Monday, 585 today
We plan to stockpile protective equipment and we have to be aware that if there is a resurgence we are prepared.
We have to resist the urge to go back to where we were, we have to grow from this.
This is a deadly disease:
20% of patients that come into our hospitals have died.
And over 65% patients who are put on ventilators have died.
We need to be thoughtful still about the use of PPE.
Masks are necessary! We are staring a campaign to say it is cool and important to wear a mask.
We are going to start to offer the PCR testing of our healthcare workers who are asymptomatic. If you test positive the guidance would be to stay home for 7 days.
Antibody test is for positive PCR test, or if they have had symptoms."
"We continue to see a decline in numbers. We still have many sick patients in the hospital but the trends have been favorable for us.
The rest of the country is talking about reopening. We have concerns about reopening too fast.
Reopening carries some risk to it, so we hope it will be done in a thoughtful and measured manner.
1753 Monday, 1661 today
613 vented Monday, 585 today
We plan to stockpile protective equipment and we have to be aware that if there is a resurgence we are prepared.
We have to resist the urge to go back to where we were, we have to grow from this.
This is a deadly disease:
20% of patients that come into our hospitals have died.
And over 65% patients who are put on ventilators have died.
We need to be thoughtful still about the use of PPE.
Masks are necessary! We are staring a campaign to say it is cool and important to wear a mask.
We are going to start to offer the PCR testing of our healthcare workers who are asymptomatic. If you test positive the guidance would be to stay home for 7 days.
Antibody test is for positive PCR test, or if they have had symptoms."
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Possible yes, but the fly in the ointment is that these case were deemed 'recovered' by testing RNA negative, and then perhaps more importantly retested positive when they developed new symptoms. The most benign conjecture would be a false negative test in the middle, and later symptoms unrelated to Covid.
I think you are asking if any of these cases are immune failures. Not enough information is available to draw conclusions. My personal WAG is that a few people are immune failures, perhaps related to certain treatments. From information available so far, I doubt this group has public health significance.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The level of infection in Shanghai at the time of reopening was orders of magnitude lower than Fremont.
I mentioned the other countries first. It is fine to doubt the details of China’s numbers, but do you actually think all of these countries are lying? And last I checked, GF3 was open and pumping out cars - that tells you something, and it would be pretty difficult to have the virus circulating with life going on as normal. It is telling you the virus is effectively suppressed!
Now, I am not saying the virus will not make a comeback attempt - that it will is certain. But as long as they stay on top of things there is plenty of reason to believe these countries will be able to avoid sustained community transmission. The job will become easier as other countries get their act together.
@jbcarioca
May I share this with my nephews, unedited?
You have a better organized, disciplined and cogent reply than I am capable of
Doggydogworld
Active Member
They track by date of infection, so you need a 3-4 week lag. A 24 day lag gives an IFR a bit above 1.1% in the US. They have CA just above 1% and NY about 1.3%.
Lots of interesting stuff on that site. They say only 0.9% have been infected so far in CA, which seems low given their early start. They show 105 total infections in the US on 2/5, doubling the next day to 209. The rate declines quickly, averaging 34%/day from 2/5-25 but only 20%/day from 3/1-15. Still trying to get my head around all of it.
You almost never hear about test&trace being a great tool for learning how the virus spreads. Airborne vs. contact, inside vs. outside, etc. We're opening and closing stuff randomly. Do fitness centers spread 10000x more virus than parks and beaches? We have no clue because we have no effective test&trace. An app would generate all kinds of great data, of course. But no.....
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