Like someone with a bigly, beautiful brain who could have been a doctor once said- "what do you have to lose?"
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Like someone with a bigly, beautiful brain who could have been a doctor once said- "what do you have to lose?"
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Another virus shooting. This time at McDonalds.
Customers shot 2 McDonald's employees in Oklahoma City after being told to leave due to coronavirus restrictions - CNN
Customers shot 2 McDonald's employees in Oklahoma City after being told to leave due to coronavirus restrictions - CNN
you forgot to include your essential oils
That's my estimate as well Alan it's about 40 to 35 times elevated from what I calculate as my rough risk of mortality from this disease.
Obvious explanation is that the same folks running that are running the Florida unemployment website.
Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:
"Monday: 1448—512 on vents
Today: 1349—466 on vents
So far 9,500 admitted, and discharged well over 6,000
We don’t think the whitehouse should do away with the task force. We think we should double down on the task force. Here in New York we are going to see very cautious reopening.
We are going to be expanding to a number of patients soon and renew some of our services
Clinical developments:
Vaccines is an interesting topic. There are over 90-100 different developmental programs for vaccines, some of which have even started being tested on humans. There are 7-8 different methodologies to try out.
We need to prove they are safe and effective and then we need to prove, can these vaccines prevent the virus from taking hold—this is what takes time.
Starting next week we are going to start offering our antibody tests to our healthcare workers. It is unclear what the results mean. Even if you test positive on a good test, it’s still not clear if you have immunity. In no way should you consider yourself immune.
PPE: still in good supply but we still need to conserve."
"Monday: 1448—512 on vents
Today: 1349—466 on vents
So far 9,500 admitted, and discharged well over 6,000
We don’t think the whitehouse should do away with the task force. We think we should double down on the task force. Here in New York we are going to see very cautious reopening.
We are going to be expanding to a number of patients soon and renew some of our services
Clinical developments:
Vaccines is an interesting topic. There are over 90-100 different developmental programs for vaccines, some of which have even started being tested on humans. There are 7-8 different methodologies to try out.
We need to prove they are safe and effective and then we need to prove, can these vaccines prevent the virus from taking hold—this is what takes time.
Starting next week we are going to start offering our antibody tests to our healthcare workers. It is unclear what the results mean. Even if you test positive on a good test, it’s still not clear if you have immunity. In no way should you consider yourself immune.
PPE: still in good supply but we still need to conserve."
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the update. There is one part that doesn't jive with what we know to date:
"Starting next week we are going to start offering our antibody tests to our healthcare workers. It is unclear what the results mean. Even if you test positive on a good test, it’s still not clear if you have immunity. In no way should you consider yourself immune."
If this were true, multiple countries would not be asking people that have recovered to donate convalescent plasma. And convalescent plasma is one of the few things we know makes a big difference for the sickest of patients.
Thoughts?
Why is we haven't heard of this in reports out of China or Italy? Perhaps not related to COVID-19 but coincidental?
More children hospitalized in New York City with rare condition that may be linked to COVID-19
More children hospitalized in New York City with rare condition that may be linked to COVID-19
Definitely the best line of the week!
It is bizarre to see the emphasis on how we haven't "proven" in some bank-vault-world-of-absolute-certainty fashion immunity from covid-19 antibodies. There is the South Korean study which does show reinfection does not happen although my recollection of that is that it had a rather small N. I'm not sure why we keep hearing over and over again that immunity has not been proven. I suppose it could emerge from some desire to squash overconfidence and reckless behavior. But it's still in my estimation a mis-emphasis.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's a relatively new finding. In pediatric circles they are still collecting data and talking about the findings.
China - who knows. I've viewed their reports with a large degree of skepticism.
Italy - they have a much older population. Additionally their hospital system was overwhelmed, so more subtle findings like this might have been overlooked in the chaos.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
This is the problem when in the public's eye and on social media poorly-weighted evidence, or conjecture with no evidence at all, gets the same level of attention as things backed with solid data.
Here's a chart of the deviation of actual deaths through 05/06 vs the 03/30 IHME forecast for each state:
You can see the numbers for the top 25 deviants on the left. I use +-50% for the colors to "zoom in" on the ones closer to the forecast.
The raw data is from covidtracking.com. Note that their US total (67,146) is significantly different from the worldometers.info total for 05/06 (74,799). Which one is correct? I don't know.
You can see the numbers for the top 25 deviants on the left. I use +-50% for the colors to "zoom in" on the ones closer to the forecast.
The raw data is from covidtracking.com. Note that their US total (67,146) is significantly different from the worldometers.info total for 05/06 (74,799). Which one is correct? I don't know.
Geneva is conducting an 8 week seroprevalance study and the authors released preliminary results from the first three weeks. By the third week of the study (April 20-24), almost 10% of the population tested positive, with the numbers increasing rapidly from week 1 to week 3:
The authors excluded (actually deferred) individuals who had symptoms or were in quarantine or isolation, so their numbers may underestimate the true prevalance. The authors don't estimate an IFR, but a reddit thread has some interesting details, including an IFR estimate of about 0.49% (or slightly higher or lower depending on assumptions used for lag times of antibody test and fatalities).
According to one post, the fatalities in Geneva are heavily concentrated in the over 80 age group, with only 2 fatalities in the under 50 age group:
30-39 years: 2
50-59 years: 6
60-69 years: 11
70-79 years: 46
80+ years: 180
All others are 0
Repeated seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a population-based sample from Geneva, Switzerland : COVID19
Will be interesting to watch as there are five more weeks of testing to conduct/analyze in the study.
"In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 3.1% (95% CI 0.2-5.99, n=343). This increased to 6.1% (95% CI 2.6-56 9.33, n=416) in the second, and to 9.7% (95% CI 6.1-13.11, n=576) in the third week." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20088898v1.full.pdf
The authors excluded (actually deferred) individuals who had symptoms or were in quarantine or isolation, so their numbers may underestimate the true prevalance. The authors don't estimate an IFR, but a reddit thread has some interesting details, including an IFR estimate of about 0.49% (or slightly higher or lower depending on assumptions used for lag times of antibody test and fatalities).
According to one post, the fatalities in Geneva are heavily concentrated in the over 80 age group, with only 2 fatalities in the under 50 age group:
30-39 years: 2
50-59 years: 6
60-69 years: 11
70-79 years: 46
80+ years: 180
All others are 0
Repeated seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a population-based sample from Geneva, Switzerland : COVID19
Will be interesting to watch as there are five more weeks of testing to conduct/analyze in the study.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
One likely difference is the inclusion of "probable" deaths. (Above 5,300 for NYC, one of the places where the number is reported.)
If you are using covidtracking.com data, it will be interesting to see that map in 2 weeks. (EDIT: Actually, either way.)
And you left out the most important part which is that none of this has been peer-reviewed. The worst example of people treating non peer-reviewed datasets as vetted was of course the joke Santa Clara study where they used grotesquely non-standard recruitment, and cooked statistics. This data looks like it's less biased but without peer review and without doing a deep dive on all kinds of issues, there's no way of knowing.
Norbert
TSLA will win
One thing that just looks funny to a naive layman is that it looks like each week they broke the previous confidence interval. I might be mistaken since I don't really know much about confidence intervals. (EDIT: Probably the infection level actually increased, just looks funny because each time it is a littbit above the previous CI.)
If you want to read the best investigative report about what has been happening in Lombardy, the most hit Italian region by Coronavirus, you can read it here:
Two months that shook Lombardy - Il Post
Allegedly, oneof the major culprits is their private health system, that in decades drained money and resources from the public one. But it's a long article and there are very interesting things inside. I recommend it.
Two months that shook Lombardy - Il Post
Allegedly, oneof the major culprits is their private health system, that in decades drained money and resources from the public one. But it's a long article and there are very interesting things inside. I recommend it.
Mader Levap
Member
"not in the public?" Someone would wonder how those care facilities got COVID-19 in first place if they are so safe.
That you never heard about it does not means "never been tried before". Ever heard about Spanish Flu?
In general I see COVID-19 pulled out of woodworks various crazies, conspiracy theorists, snake oil peddlers, Trump apologists and other mentally ill people. I guess I should have expected it.
This kind of thing is why people outside USA think about USA as country of gun-toting rightwing loonies. And don't even get me start on what Trump did to USA's reputation world-wide.
MXLRplus
Active Member
Why yes! Our president was gravely ill with H1N1, close to death during the Paris Armistice talks with Germany, IIRC. He was hallucinating and could not get out of bed.
EDIT added: Spanish Influenza in the President's Neighborhood
However the USA did NOT shut down. Please read up on your history before correcting people. Thanks in advance.
ps - if you read the thread, I believe this was already covered
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