Coronavirus

[Ocelot]

probably not wwII , but point is valid. especially the blacked out pun.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Many millions more will fall into extreme poverty worldwide. When they do a retrospective study of this pandemic they'll be more deaths due to economic shutdowns than being infected with covid-19

80% of MERS sufferers never fully recovered
It’s sad that death is the only metric used to quantify action
There are going to be hundreds of thousands of chronically ill & permanently disabled people from Covid19

 

[Daniel in SD]

Many millions more will fall into extreme poverty worldwide. When they do a retrospective study of this pandemic they'll be more deaths due to economic shutdowns than being infected with covid-19

This seems very likely. The question is how much economic damage would occur without mitigation efforts? I suspect even more. It's a lose-lose situation.
I would note that in wealthy countries all cause mortality decreases during recessions. In fact in the US all mortality decreased during the great depression!

 

[lascavarian]

I woke up this morning thinking about how Veterinarians that treat cats must be thinking. Our Vet has an office cat Stuart that has the run of the place. The office is very clean but his fur is about. If cats are capable of transmitting to other cats then what is the mode of transmission. Is it on simple fur or must there be more close contact - a scratch?

Seems a mostly open question. Maybe someone can offer some knowledgeable comments from the Vet perspective?

 

[madodel]

This is not exactly what happened. I have been mountain biking and road biking in parks and other places since early March.

I do agree they could have been less aggressive with some measures, but keep in mind closures occurred AFTER the social distancing rules went into effect, and then people demonstrated they were going to congregate in parks and generally not understand the order. Now people are better educated and hopefully things can be opened back up. (Unfortunately the “freedom” crowd appears to be trying to kill people.)

Well in PA they closed the state parks but our local parks were open. It was mostly large gathering facilities that were closed, but we don't have beaches. The idiots doing the protesting are really doing it for politics, but the fact that almost every photo I see has them almost all without masks but close together is probably going to be seen in the statistics in another week or 2.

 

[GFernandes]

No, Sweden has not had a 'significant outbreak'. Like its neighbors Norway and Finland, Sweden took early countermeasures. Sweden's milder approach allows more deaths, but their actions brought Rt near 1.0 early enough to prevent a large outbreak.

Sweden had virtually no COVID deaths until late March and thanks to a mild flu season was ~1500 below the all causes trendline. Then the tide turned. Sweden averaged 340 deaths/day in April, up 36% from 250/day average rate. That's 10,200 dead in April (so far, some data is still coming in) vs. the 7500 average. Add 300 in late March for 3000 excess deaths during the outbreak (3/20-4/30).

You tend to post stuff without links, so we can't verify anything. My numbers come from the Excel file linked on this page.

The graph I sent you comes from the exact same source, you can fact check if you believe my numbers are wrong.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Let's be clear about what the bulk of the issue is here. No question vitamin C and for that matter vitamin D (which isn't really a vitamin) is essential to immune function. No question that vitamin C is taken up in large amounts by neutrophils (which use oxidative burst in immune attack - unclear what role Vit C might play there whether anti or pro-oxidant). No question that vitamin C is essential to at least 10 to 15 enzymatic reactions and via that essential to our health.

The question is whether IV pharmacologic doses of Vitamin C - in other words hundreds and hundreds of times higher then we would ever take in as a food substance - is a treatment for severe pneumonia/viremia. The bone of contention is whether or not there is adequate scientific evidence to support the claims that these high IV doses are a workable and effective treatment. We are still awaiting the results of double-blind studies on this. That will decide the issue. In the meantime you have claims by several members of the forum and you have skepticism on the part of other people. I'm a skeptical-show-me-the-money (good scientific data) kind-of-guy. The results of those studies will answer the debate. I for one would be thrilled if it turns out that high-dose IV vitamin C is in fact a safe and effective treatment in viral pneumonia/sepsis. But the conflict is about whether or not Claims can be made in the absence of adequate double-blind results.

Why would scientists be waiting until now to determine the results of high doses of Vit C against any illness involving immunity. So why should today's outcome be any different? Let's put it this way, I'd much rather any studies come from outside the US and unaffiliated. That goes for the tests and the vaccines that will surely appear before Nov, or I'm a Pigeon on my roof.

 

[GFernandes]

Prof Michael Levitt made an analysis on Excess Mortality from Euromomo ( he must also come from the moron cave obviously ):
Michael Levitt on Twitter

In summary in most of Europe we had an excess of ~153k deaths, roughly 15% above the excess in 17/18. Population in Euromomo is ~359M so this means 42.5 Excess Deaths / 100.000 population.

Now if we go to 2014/2015 that I attach, we have, surprise surprise, moron cave delivery: 42.5 ?!?

So we had *excess mortality* like in 2014/2015. If we go by *total mortality* 2014/2015 was worse than 2019/2020. Why we didn't lockdown back then?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Sean T at RCP on Twitter

This is an excellent thread. The news media really needs to do a good job on this one. This sort of nonsense reporting has to stop. Just say what is happening, CNN. It is entirely possible that case counts will go up due to reopening and then spiral out of control. But there is no reason to get ahead of themselves with a narrative and then try (poorly) to fit data to that narrative.

These details matter, as the thread says. We want massive testing. Keep in mind that Trump is opposed to it because it will make cases go up. We need to change that incentive for the President.

People who are interested in getting a handle on this epidemic should be wholeheartedly advocating for a massive fivefold increase in case counts. That is a sign of success (if it is because of 10-50x increased testing). We should insist on an increase in cases. More identified cases is a GOOD thing!

It really is our only hope.

 

[KenC]

Like the Swedes say, this virus is here to stay and we need to accept that we'll all probably get it at some point. It's something we'll have to go through, just like we used to go through chicken pox et al. There's no guarantee of a vaccine/cure.

To me, it would make sense to optimize your immune system.
I'll admit something... I've been playing soccer all along, haven't stopped. Every week, with a big group of people. Outside, no mask. High intensity as usual.
A lot of these guys are in their 50s and 60s (I'm frankly surprised they play without a care). No one, to my knowledge, has gotten sick.

Hmm... Maybe playing a sport outside is what everyone should be doing...

Maybe the virus is weakened in the sunlight.
Maybe the it has a hard time transmitting in the wide open outdoor air.
Maybe vigorous running helps with oxygen saturation at rest.
Maybe it helps the lungs operate efficiently.
Maybe burning all those calories help keep BMI in check - reduces obesity as a risk factor (even though many of us are somewhat overweight).
Maybe burning all that glucose helps normalize blood sugar levels, reducing risk of diabetes, a major risk factor.
Maybe it helps with blood pressure, another risk factor. And maybe having fun reduces stress and helps the immune system. And the sunlight helps you not be Vitamin D deficient.

Hmmm... I don't know for sure... just speculation. This is not a peer reviewed study. But I have a hunch! hmm...

But if those with weakened immune systems get it, like those in nursing homes, they are far more likely to die. Their only hope is that they don't get the virus, before we get a vaccine or treatment. Sweden's reporting their inflated 364deaths/Million, while their neighbor Norway is reporting just 43deaths/Million. We're not talking small differences, but orders of magnitude differences.

If you had an elderly parent, in which country would you rather have them living?

And why are there such vast differences in the rates around the globe? Why are Western European numbers so much worse than Eastern European numbers? Why are the old West Germany numbers worse than the old East Germany numbers? They use the same counting methods in Germany, whether the old West or old East, no?

Strange virus. In my home country (Portugal) all babies are vaccinated

Many millions more will fall into extreme poverty worldwide. When they do a retrospective study of this pandemic they'll be more deaths due to economic shutdowns than being infected with covid-19

Vaccinated with what? It is interesting to compare Portugal with its neighbor Spain, and wonder what they're doing differently.

 

[traxila]

It depends on "net deaths" on an annual basis. Many of those folks would have died soon regardless. We'll have a wait a year or so to get an accurate picture.

But what I would say is, your logic can be applied to any cause of death, so it's a moot point.

For ex, how many car accident deaths are you ok with? "so that the rest of us can get on with the challenges we face"

Attack and deflect, but never ever never answer the question.

 

[dfwatt]

Why would scientists be waiting until now to determine the results of high doses of Vit C against any illness involving immunity. So why should today's outcome be any different? Let's put it this way, I'd much rather any studies come from outside the US and unaffiliated. That goes for the tests and the vaccines that will surely appear before Nov, or I'm a Pigeon on my roof.

I asked you about a cryptic statement and you respond with another cryptic statement.

 

[dqd88]

But if those with weakened immune systems get it, like those in nursing homes, they are far more likely to die. Their only hope is that they don't get the virus, before we get a vaccine or treatment. Sweden's reporting their inflated 364deaths/Million, while their neighbor Norway is reporting just 43deaths/Million. We're not talking small differences, but orders of magnitude differences.

If you had an elderly parent, in which country would you rather have them living?

And why are there such vast differences in the rates around the globe? Why are Western European numbers so much worse than Eastern European numbers? Why are the old West Germany numbers worse than the old East Germany numbers? They use the same counting methods in Germany, whether the old West or old East, no?


Vaccinated with what? It is interesting to compare Portugal with its neighbor Spain, and wonder what they're doing differently.

I really don't see the fuss. Death is a natural part of life. Everyone's elderly parent will die soon. It's just a fact.
They will die of something. What steps are you taking to ensure they don't die of flu induced pneumonia, or whatever... nothing. You've accepted that they will die of something.

Maybe one reason Western Europe has more cases is they have more elderly; they probably also have better testing so it gets reported more.

 

[dqd88]

Attack and deflect, but never ever never answer the question.

The answer to how many deaths am I ok with?
Ok, I'll try to answer. I'm ok with a # of deaths that is on par with the current # of deaths from all causes.
A death by corona eliminates a death by heart failure or something else. But net deaths remain about same (somewhat accelerated but over a year or so about the same).

Again, we accept millions of deaths by many other causes so the fact that you don't accept deaths by Covid is the truly weird thing.
It's psychological. Because it's new, it causes fear. But you have not zoomed out and gained proper perspective.

It's very important to note the avg age of death. About 80 yrs old.
Is an 80 yr old death equal to a 20 yr old death? As crass as it may sound, the answer is no.
A 20 yr old dying is losing approx 60 years of life.
An 80 yr old dying is losing not many years of life.
So they are not equal.

 

[GFernandes]

The answer to how many deaths am I ok with?
Ok, I'll try to answer. I'm ok with a # of deaths that is on par with the current # of deaths from all causes.
A death by corona eliminates a death by heart failure or something else. But net deaths remain about same (somewhat accelerated but over a year or so about the same).

Again, we accept millions of deaths by many other causes so the fact that you don't accept deaths by Covid is the truly weird thing.
It's psychological. Because it's new, it causes fear. But you have not zoomed out and gained proper perspective.

It's very important to note the avg age of death. About 80 yrs old.
Is an 80 yr old death equal to a 20 yr old death? As crass as it may sound, the answer is no.
A 20 yr old dying is losing approx 60 years of life.
An 80 yr old dying is losing not many years of life.
So they are not equal.

Totally agree. Years of life lost. Unfortunately influenza has some bad strains/years where it affects younger people much more significantly than COVID.

 

[phantasms]

I'm curious if you (or people you know) have thought about leaving NYC? If so, where would you move to?

I would highly suggest Northern Westchester. It’s as chill as Vermont, beautiful, sick schools, and NYC is an hour away.

If no kids of school age, Aspen, obviously.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Why we didn't lockdown back then?

Presumably because scientists predicted that there wouldn't be millions of excess deaths?
I guarantee you that if there is another pandemic flu strain like 1918 there will be lockdowns.
You seem to be assuming that "lockdowns" don't actually do anything to prevent the spread of the virus and that excess deaths would be exactly the same without suppression.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What steps are you taking to ensure they don't die of flu induced pneumonia, or whatever... nothing.

I encourage them to get their flu shot early, and emphasize to them how dangerous the flu can be (so to be careful)!

 

[AZRI11]

This seems very likely. The question is how much economic damage would occur without mitigation efforts? I suspect even more. It's a lose-lose situation.
I would note that in wealthy countries all cause mortality decreases during recessions. In fact in the US all mortality decreased during the great depression!

You have to watch the BBC and other international news outlets. Extreme poverty from shutdowns will erase 30 years of efforts to reduce said poverty. CNN and MSNBC, Fox are garbage as are most American newspapers. World needs to, and will open their economies. Hospitals will have to suffer this burden, but as long as they aren't overwhelmed were going forward with our livelihoods. All choices on the table are bad, chose the one that does the least damage.

 

[RandomJohnny]