This is the real curious situation. Why is CA rising at the same time as TX and AZ. States I have theorized are spiking due to general disinterest across a wide set of their populations in masks and social distance. CA does seem not to fit with these sorts of theories and data.
Mask use in CA and general attitude towards covid seemed to be similar to Northeast region. Europe has so far seen no resurgence.
If this happens in CA does it mean the whole world is on track for resurgence? That one cannot open if ones neighbors have cases? Maybe we would assign this in CA to behavior changes due to social distance fatigue? That isn’t good for US in total. Maybe it’s due to weather and indoor/outdoor behavior? That’s also not good. Maybe it’s just a different sub population picked it up this round in CA so it’s spreading into a different set of people. Seems unlikely.
CA is a very curious case. I hope your local struggles in stopping the growth are successful and everyone you know stays healthy!
You have to look at spread per county. This is a good site for that
Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths
If you click on the confirmed cases per day and go through time you can see the outbreak spread in California. The outbreak in California and Arizona really got going on the AZ/CA border. A few weeks ago Imperial County in California was the only real hot spot. Since then it grew throughout California, up the San Joaquin Valley, and is now beginning to heat up in the Bay Area.
In Washington state Yakima county has been a mess for a month, but the western part of the state (where most of the population is has been OK). Yakima county is one of the biggest agriculture counties in Washington and it's been cherry picking season the last month. In California, the Imperial Valley has the most harvesting activity this time of year, but the crops in the San Joaquin Valley are beginning to ripen now. Most of the crops grown in the San Joaquin Valley (which has the 3 biggest agriculture counties by crop value in the world) come in mid to late summer.
Yuma county in Arizona grows a lot of spring lettuce that is harvested in May and June.
In some places agricultural outbreaks are contained to the area where they started. Oregon had an outbreak at a fish processing plant on the coast that has now calmed down. The current hot spot in eastern Oregon was started at a big church service about a month ago in La Grande. Outbreaks in the SE corner of South Dakota have not spread to the rest of the state, but Iowa (just across the border) is a mess.
In California and Arizona, it doesn't look like the agricultural outbreaks were very well contained and the virus has spread to more populous counties. Los Angeles also has been a warm spot this last month in part because when they relaxed restrictions, too many people went nuts and flocked to the beaches. I grew up in Los Angeles and never understood the beach thing, but it's a popular thing to do in the area and there was pent up demand when the restrictions were eased.
The spread in California around the agricultural regions may be due to the fact that this time of year migrant workers are now moving from the Imperial Valley to the San Joaquin Valley for the start of harvest season there. My sister lives in Kern County with a partner who is very high risk. She was confident a few months ago that the outbreak there will be mild, but while it's a smaller outbreak there than other parts of the valley, it's growing. Kern County has the advantage of having a higher average education than most of the rest of the valley because it's the center for California's oil business and there are a lot of college educated people there who have a better understanding of the precautions. My sister is very conservative politically, but she has been wearing a mask when out and going out very little since early March. Her partner has been essentially under house arrest.
Many of the regions of the country where governors actively discouraged social distancing and mask wearing have widespread outbreaks with little hope for containment any time soon.
Gov. Greg Abbott issues statewide mask order
"In a groundbreaking move on Thursday, Gov. Greg Abbott issued a statewide mask order.
This means every Texan is required to wear a mask or facial covering when out in public. According to the governor, the order applies to all counties in the state with more than 20 confirmed COVID-19 cases."
"COVID-19 is not going away," said the governor in the announcement above published on his social media accounts. "In fact, it's getting worse."
No shite Sherlock. Remains to be seen how much use it is, many many 'free' people in Texas.
It is a bit like starting a burn ban when the forest is already a conflagration, but it is a good sign that some governors who were doubting how dangerous this is are starting to get a clue.
The lesson from San Diego County is that even with quite high mask compliance (people are really quite good about it here), as long as people are allowed to congregate in restaurants indoors (without masks of course), it will continue to spread with R greater than 1.
So masks alone are unlikely to stop the spread. They need to remove the superspreading events from the mix as well. (This is the value I see in focusing on classifying outbreaks, I think - it allows you to see what activities to shut down immediately. The number of outbreaks alone is not a metric for success though - but if you have zero, that implies you are no longer allowing any high-risk congregate settings.)
Anyway, mandatory masking is essential, but I don’t think we’re going to see sustained declines in AZ/FL/TX/CA until indoor dining, etc., are banned. I hope I am wrong because without declines immediately, the numbers are going to get frighteningly high - along with the deaths, which are now steadily rising in AZ/FL/TX.
As bad news as it is for the restaurant industry, I just don't think indoor dining is going to be safe for a while. For places where you can eat outdoors, outdoor restaurants might be safer, but we'll continue to get take out.
I believe if we allowed people that got sick from COVID-19 to sue those people they have been in contact with that REFUSE to wear masks, this attitude would change.
And from a societal standpoint, it is an interesting development that in the past 10 years or so the mindset of "freedom" has become unlimited. In the past, it was understood that one's freedom had reasonable bounds (i.e. I'm not free to go out and shoot anyone for any reason, it just doesn't work that way). When freedom infringes on the freedom and personal liberty of another individual, it is clear that there should be an obvious limitation.
So yeah, if those people that get sick are allowed to sue those people that don't comply with "common sense" guidelines and regulations designed for the safety of the population, perhaps we might see some of these attitudes change.
My 0.02.
It's a misinterpretation of libertarianism. In a true libertarian philosophy, if someone is doing something that someone else doesn't approve of or is even dangerous to myself, but it does not put others at risk or cause harm to others, it should be allowed. However as part of the same theory, dangerous behavior that puts others at risk or harms others should be controlled.
The concept has been warped as it's moved into mainstream political thought. Both parties have partially embraced libertarian ideas, but there is a segment out there that has warped it into a pretzel with an attitude that basically boils down to "I can do anything I like and you can't stop me, but if I disapprove of anything you're doing, that needs to be banned." None of the adherents to this have actually thought it through, but that's what their behavior says.
So if they don't want to wear a mask and expose the rest of the population to a deadly disease, that's their "right", but if they happen to hate lawn bowling that should be a crime. It's nuts and completely unworkable in society.
True libertarians wear masks at times like this because they see that not wearing a mask is putting others at risk. Faux libertarians use it as an excuse to be a dangerous jerk.
