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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
No I don't do Twitter. In general I regard 'social' media as at best a mixed bag, at worst part of why we're in the toilet. I know that makes me some kind of dinosaur,
Anybody that's trying to cook the data books in order to improve their covid-19 statistics should be impeached. Wait a minute, you can't do that cuz that would mean impeaching the president! And about six or seven governors! Whatever happened to transparency?
N5329K
Active Member
The mortality calculus is way more complicated than that, and probably has more variables than we know. Not just age, not just comorbidities, but probably unknown genetic / polymorphism issues, possible contributions from vitamin D levels, and perhaps from a dozen known other modulators of immunity, including prior exposure to other coronaviruses which may give you some cross-reactivity and therefore partial immunity. Size of the inoculum may be an important variable but like I said there are probably are a dozen or more important ones, Some of which we may know nothing about. We just don't know. In that context, any level of confidence that somehow you're virtually invulnerable because of your age and because of some absence of known comorbid risk factors for severe outcome seems ill-advised.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
San Antonio started to re-open and had their mask order overturned at the start of May. Technically restaurants were restricted to 50% and so forth, but a lot of people went back to life as usual. Still, we saw no change in the numbers for 5+ weeks. Then it went exponential. Not as bad as NYC, but bad enough to max out our hospitals.
Officials blamed it on Memorial Day family and neighbor parties. I agree that played a role, but I also think it started spreading undetected among young people almost immediately after re-opening. It takes 10x as many young people to catch it before it shows in the numbers because few get tested and even fewer end up in the hospital. So it took 3 extra weeks (5 instead of 2) for it to show up in the numbers.
6.9% with antibodies in NYC during the 3/23-4/1 sampling period means ~7% infected by mid-March. COVID Projections has NYC at 7.7% infected on 3/15, so that lines up well. But most infections happened after 3/15 - they estimate 25% of NYC has had it by now. Not herd immune yet, but still way above 10%.
I know a family that drove from California to RI, about 3 weeks ago. Staying at her mom's for the summer and put 3 of her 4 kids in day camp. Now they're looking for a school in R.I. staying for a whole year because she doesn't think California schools will open until next year. We shall see if there's school "anywhere" this year.
Australia's suppression strategy had effectively resulted in general elimination of community covid19, but then Victoria let their quarantine guard down, a quick ABC interview as follows
This is relevant, in so far as a NZ style elimination lockdown would've also fallen over at the same point. So while border controls are not sufficient, they are totally necessary.
First point, were security guards really instructed to supply their own PPE at a quarantine hotel? Tragic
This is relevant, in so far as a NZ style elimination lockdown would've also fallen over at the same point. So while border controls are not sufficient, they are totally necessary.
First point, were security guards really instructed to supply their own PPE at a quarantine hotel? Tragic
Dr. J
Active Member
Mortality rate:
How Deadly Is Covid-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer
Research suggests the new coronavirus kills about five to 10 people for every 1,000 that it infects, though rate varies based on age and access to health care
Researchers, initially analyzing data from outbreaks on cruise ships and more recently from surveys of thousands of people in virus hot spots, have now conducted dozens of studies to calculate the infection fatality rate of Covid-19.
That research—examining deaths out of the total number of infections, which includes unreported cases—suggests that Covid-19 kills from around 0.3% to 1.5% of people infected. Most studies put the rate between 0.5% and 1.0%, meaning that for every 1,000 people who get infected, from five to 10 would die on average.
How Deadly Is Covid-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer
Research suggests the new coronavirus kills about five to 10 people for every 1,000 that it infects, though rate varies based on age and access to health care
Researchers, initially analyzing data from outbreaks on cruise ships and more recently from surveys of thousands of people in virus hot spots, have now conducted dozens of studies to calculate the infection fatality rate of Covid-19.
That research—examining deaths out of the total number of infections, which includes unreported cases—suggests that Covid-19 kills from around 0.3% to 1.5% of people infected. Most studies put the rate between 0.5% and 1.0%, meaning that for every 1,000 people who get infected, from five to 10 would die on average.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Can anyone explain how a payroll tax cut makes any sense in the current situation? Clearly what they need to do is remove the cap on deductions for state and local taxes 
Anyway the additional $600 a week unemployment adder is expiring and Congress better come up with a replacement unless they want to really tank the economy. I would advocate something scaled with past income instead of a fixed amount though since it's been put off to the last minute that may not be practical to implement. Some sort of support for businesses hard hit by the pandemic would also be good.
Anyway the additional $600 a week unemployment adder is expiring and Congress better come up with a replacement unless they want to really tank the economy. I would advocate something scaled with past income instead of a fixed amount though since it's been put off to the last minute that may not be practical to implement. Some sort of support for businesses hard hit by the pandemic would also be good.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Our local numbers track with that
2515 cases, 21 deaths, 0.83%
It still surprises me every time I look to see that we have a local gap of no deaths between 65-74 years old. I guess 21 cases just isn't enough to fill out a random distribution.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Can anyone explain how a payroll tax cut makes any sense in the current situation? Clearly what they need to do is remove the cap on deductions for state and local taxes
Anyway the additional $600 a week unemployment adder is expiring and Congress better come up with a replacement unless they want to really tank the economy. I would advocate something scaled with past income instead of a fixed amount though since it's been put off to the last minute that may not be practical to implement. Some sort of support for businesses hard hit by the pandemic would also be good.
I'm not defending a payroll tax cut, but the SALT deduction has never made sense to me. Why should the federal government subsidize through tax breaks the more expensive state and local governments that want to impose local taxes? It should have never been in place to begin with.
I agree...and I live in NYS with very high property taxes and very high income taxes. Plus the SALT deductions really only benefit the highest earners. The standard deduction is $24,000+ for a married couple...you would need a very high income to exceed the standard deduction.
I was wondering about the payroll tax cut that Trump is desperate for. People who are working are generally doing well. After years of having a depressed housing market here in the Poconos houses are now selling like proverbial hotcakes as New Yorkers are escaping NYC and able to work at home. It is the unemployed that need the continuing assistance since a lot of their jobs are still not back. PA Governor just cut back restaurant indoor dining to 25% and restaurants were barely viable at 50% occupancy.Can anyone explain how a payroll tax cut makes any sense in the current situation? Clearly what they need to do is remove the cap on deductions for state and local taxes
Anyway the additional $600 a week unemployment adder is expiring and Congress better come up with a replacement unless they want to really tank the economy. I would advocate something scaled with past income instead of a fixed amount though since it's been put off to the last minute that may not be practical to implement. Some sort of support for businesses hard hit by the pandemic would also be good.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Concur. A payroll tax won't help those out of work.
Why haven't we seen an infrastructure bill pass? Seems like with so many people out of work right now it would be a great time to work on building roads, bridges, etc. I could see in cities where it might be a risk for workers with COVID-19, but out in the boonies where there is a lot more space, seems like it would be a good way to put a lot of people out of work back to work.
Or am I over-thinking this?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
It was a joke!
I'm also against the SALT deduction, though I would certainly take it if offered.
Was Trump ever concerned for people in the lower brackets?
And houses are selling like hotcakes everywhere it seems. At least in CA, the Fed-suppressed interest rates is the primary factor for houses selling over ask.
I can see your position regarding the unemployed, but how soon will people be back to commuting to work en masse? Would rather have that "debt" be utilized on more direct needs right now.
Added: I am on board for expanding HSI access out into the boonies, though. Better ISP and cellular coverage across the country is needed IMO.
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