My daughter got her first dose of Moderna in Germany today. That is a relief for my wife and I. 3 weeks she gets the second dose. Hopefully we can visit there or somewhere else this Summer. It's been a year and a half since I last saw her in person.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Anyone know what the data shows regarding vaccine efficacy over time from the first shot for vaccines, in particular Pfizer?
The data I've seen (see chart below from the FDA) seems to indicate that in as little as 10-14 days after the first shot you already have a significant resistance to picking up COVID. To me this makes sense, since single shot vaccines like the J&J are deemed effective after 14 days.
Trying to judge the amount of risk for those who are partially vaccinated vs fully vaccinated.
The data I've seen (see chart below from the FDA) seems to indicate that in as little as 10-14 days after the first shot you already have a significant resistance to picking up COVID. To me this makes sense, since single shot vaccines like the J&J are deemed effective after 14 days.
Trying to judge the amount of risk for those who are partially vaccinated vs fully vaccinated.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
My understanding is that they really have seen less efficacy after the first dose. There have been nursing home and hospital studies (the hospital study is widely published so you should be able to look it up). Here's a nursing home study: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2104849?query=featured_home
This is of course a special population so don't extend absolute efficacy there to a broader population - just look at dose one vs. dose two. This is also not ideal to look at for efficacy because the effects of vaccination help the unvaccinated residents...but anyway...you get the idea.
The problem with the above plot you provided is that the N is so low that it is nearly impossible to see the difference between the first and second doses, or really make any precise claims about efficacy at all (though pretty clearly it is doing something - you can claim significance, but without precision). There are just two vaccine-group events between day 14 and 21. Also, it's hard to unpack differences in people's behavior in the trial subsequent to vaccination vs. the real world. And efficacy with lower antibody levels depends on the amount of virus in the air, too, from reasonable physical models of infection, apparently. So there are a lot of variables which affect efficacy - another reason you can't compare AZ and J&J trial results to Moderna & Pfizer. (Though I do think AZ and J&J are somewhat less effective, most likely - especially J&J after just the single dose.)
There is a lot of discussion of this, and how to interpret efficacy, about 100 pages back.
I personally think the answer is that after one mRNA shot, after 14 days, you probably have about 60-80% protection for a typical low-dose exposure. Previously I thought it was a bit higher, closer to 90% (and it might be - that's what the strict point-estimate low-N calculations suggest in the 7-day (Pfizer) and 14-day (Moderna) window, I think) - but I'm not sure. So probably a bit less protection than from natural infection (about 80-90%). This is assuming typical strains without strong immune escape characteristics. So advisable to stay as safe as possible until you get the superpowers from the second dose (after two weeks).
For J&J it may be better after a single shot as compared to the mRNA. Physically I don't know how the fact that DNA is getting transcribed to RNA affects the strength & duration of the immune response (rather than just direct expression of a finite amount of mRNA). There are also the knock-on effects of the immune system's response to the AdV vector which may have adjuvant-like effects (I have no idea - this stuff is super complicated, or at least requires a substantial background knowledge in immunology). I am not a doctor, an immunologist, or a research scientist.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Childhood immunization during the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas
In 2020, the state of Texas implemented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing guidelines in order to prevent surges at Texas hospital …
www.sciencedirect.com
inserting just a couple of the graphs for a simplistic preview
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
besides all the reasons above why others are still wearing masks that apply to me as well, I'll add:
* allergies
* hides when I'm not in the mood to shave
* any residual risk from variants of Covid-19 and "breakthrough"
* flu
I got a flu vaccine in 2020 and Moderna in 2021 so I'm not double masking any more and I'm not bothering with super high quality masks (not worried about a proper seal and N95 or better level filtration), but I'm still doing single masks so I don't pull in other viruses like the flu or irritants like pollen.
I literally sneeze less on days when I wear a mask vs days that I don't. I'm on antihistamines 24/7/365 and my allergies still break through. Nothing serious but I consider it a good day if I sneeze 2 times or less.
So I don't wear a mask at my desk, but I put it on to go to the bathroom or to go to lunch or to go outside for any reason. I wear it in any resturant drive through or carry out situation. I haven't eaten in but should I do so I'd take it off when I got to the table and put it back on as I was leaving the table.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Got my second Moderna shot Wednesday morning. As with the first shot my arm was sore that evening. Unlike the first shot I woke up the next morning with a mild fever and general soreness/fatigue with occasional chills. Symptoms went away after 12 hours. Not a fun experience, but not as bad as my ex who felt awful for three days even with constantly alternating Tylenol and Advil.
uujjj2
Member
This is horrifying. Is it just people delaying shots because they are delaying pediatric well visits or a real spike in anti-vaxxerism?Childhood immunization during the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas
In 2020, the state of Texas implemented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing guidelines in order to prevent surges at Texas hospital …
inserting just a couple of the graphs for a simplistic preview
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
probably more of the first than the second.
Parents were home schooling so weren't required to vaccinate children for school and taking them to a doctors office to get a vaccine for something else would expose them to covid-19 (no Covid vaccine for kids). So I think people were sheltering in place (stay at home) to avoid all illnesses.
I can't say what the split is but I imagine this is mostly just one of the many after effects of Covid, not a major change in
attitude towards vaccines.
Presumably vaccinations will resume as parents feel safe to leave the house.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The infant (neonate) vaccination rates are sky high (all time high), so it's the former. It's mentioned in the paper I think. Access and disruption are the real problems.
uujjj2
Member
It looks like there's a bigger drop in the 12-18 month shots than the shots given at birth. So that also points to more of delayed doctors visits than anti-vaxxerism. Hopefully that's what it is.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
An alarming number of Americans are unvaccinated despite wanting a jab
While some have no plans of getting vaccinated due to personal reasons, others want it, but are having trouble obtaining it.
I got the J&J vaccine, but I found it burned going in. My partner said it felt about 1/2 as bad as Lovenox (she's about the most stoic person I've ever known, lives with chronic pain from nerve damage 24/7, but she yelled at the top of her lungs every injection of Lovenox when she needed it for 2 weeks after surgery).
scottf200
Well-Known Member
My brother who regularly gets allergy shots indicated that he could "feel" his J&J shot going in over a several second duration. Vastly different than my Moderna shot where I barely even knew it was happening and seemed like it only lasted a second.
Tweet from
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
https://twitter.com/EricTopol
Pandemic analysis in cities around the world: case vs vaccination rate
https://nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/15/world/covid-inequality-vaccines.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
by @dawncai624
Los Angeles is the best in the US for low cases and note the 60% vaccination threshold
The Pandemic Has Split in Two
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
https://twitter.com/EricTopol
Pandemic analysis in cities around the world: case vs vaccination rate
https://nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/15/world/covid-inequality-vaccines.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
by @dawncai624
Los Angeles is the best in the US for low cases and note the 60% vaccination threshold
The Pandemic Has Split in Two
I guess there are 2 days to get to herd immunity...
247wallst.com
States Where COVID-19 Cases Are Climbing Fastest – 24/7 Wall St.
New cases of COVID-19 are falling in the United States. There were an average of 9.4 new daily cases of the virus for every 100,000 Americans over the past week, down from an average of 12.8 new daily cases per 100,000 the week before. Nationwide, the average number of new daily infections has...
247wallst.com
The discomfort at the injection site went away for me after a few minutes, but my arm got numb on the way home, I developed a fever a couple of hours later, and was OK for two weeks. Two weeks later the injection site started to hurt and I had pain in the opposite calf for a few days. Both went away and I seem fine now.
For my partner the injection site hurt constantly for about a week. She had a neurofeedback appointment a couple of hours after the injection and they couldn't do the session because her brain was lit up like someone having a seizure. The extra brain activity calmed down, but it has left some artifacts in her brain patterns.
I may have had more pain if my body could do chronic pain. I have a genetic anomaly that I never feel chronic pain. My father had it and my sister has it. I feel acute pain, and when injured disturbing the injury will hurt, but usually not moving won't hurt. People say it's a benefit, but I've ended up re-injuring myself because I forgot about an injury that should have been hurting.
WSJ News Exclusive | Intelligence on Sick Staff at Wuhan Lab Fuels Debate on Covid-19 Origin
Three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a U.S. intelligence report, fueling debate over Covid-19’s origin.
www.wsj.com
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