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Our daughter tested negative for CV19 using the rapid test (antigen?). She had the J&J vaccine back in April and had a pretty strong reaction to it. She felt fine after the shot but was sick when she woke up the next morning. IIRC, the sickness lasted around 12 hrs.

I should get my results by tomorrow morning (PCR test like my wife). I don't have any symptoms.

Funny. As I'm typing this my wife got a call from the health department, following up on her positive test.

My doctor told me that if someone has a reaction to the vaccine within 24 hours of getting the shot, they likely had COVID and the body's immune system recognizes the vaccine as the virus.

I had a pretty strong reaction within a few hours and my partner had a response that could be clearly seen in her brainwave patterns, but she noticed nothing more than some soreness.
 
Just received my test result: negative. The CVS page says this for the "component":

LabCorp/Helix SARS-COV-2 RNA, QL NAAT, RT PCR/TMA

I really didn't need to see the results because I feel perfectly fine. What baffles me is that I clearly have been massively exposed to this virus. We didn't change our routine at home and I work from home. I only slept in another room one night, when she got the positive result around 10pm and could not get to sleep until 1am (I didn't want to wake her with my snoring, she needed sleep most of all at that point!).

Anyway, we assumed she got it at the Girls Night Out at the winery the previous weekend when they were drinking and dancing in a crowd. Having a fun time. Of the three people, only my wife is positive and sick. I really should be counted as a fourth person given my exposure when we know she was contagious. Here are the results:

Wife: positive, Pfizer vaccine in Mar/Apr
Daughter: negative, J&J vaccine in Apr
Friend: negative, had cv19 in Sep2020 and the Moderna vaccine in Apr
Me: negative, Pfizer vaccine in Mar/Apr

One other data point: my wife went to work last Fri morning and left around noon for a court case. By that point, she was contagious but not sick. None of the three other people in the office have become sick. I believe all three of them have been vaccinated and I know that at least two of them had cv19 last Fall.

Final note: the most bizarre symptom is her almost complete inability to taste food. Of course, me, being the experimentalist, I had to test it. She can't taste anything but salt and a little pepper. No red wine, white wine (tart as hell to me!), fish, caesar dressing, homegrown tomatoes, seasoning, etc. Even my straight bourbon, which she normally would recoil from, didn't faze her. Jalapenos are next :)
 
New cases in the last week.
LQoc5z9.jpg
 
Just received my test result: negative. The CVS page says this for the "component":

LabCorp/Helix SARS-COV-2 RNA, QL NAAT, RT PCR/TMA

I really didn't need to see the results because I feel perfectly fine. What baffles me is that I clearly have been massively exposed to this virus. We didn't change our routine at home and I work from home. I only slept in another room one night, when she got the positive result around 10pm and could not get to sleep until 1am (I didn't want to wake her with my snoring, she needed sleep most of all at that point!).

Anyway, we assumed she got it at the Girls Night Out at the winery the previous weekend when they were drinking and dancing in a crowd. Having a fun time. Of the three people, only my wife is positive and sick. I really should be counted as a fourth person given my exposure when we know she was contagious. Here are the results:

Wife: positive, Pfizer vaccine in Mar/Apr
Daughter: negative, J&J vaccine in Apr
Friend: negative, had cv19 in Sep2020 and the Moderna vaccine in Apr
Me: negative, Pfizer vaccine in Mar/Apr

One other data point: my wife went to work last Fri morning and left around noon for a court case. By that point, she was contagious but not sick. None of the three other people in the office have become sick. I believe all three of them have been vaccinated and I know that at least two of them had cv19 last Fall.

Final note: the most bizarre symptom is her almost complete inability to taste food. Of course, me, being the experimentalist, I had to test it. She can't taste anything but salt and a little pepper. No red wine, white wine (tart as hell to me!), fish, caesar dressing, homegrown tomatoes, seasoning, etc. Even my straight bourbon, which she normally would recoil from, didn't faze her. Jalapenos are next :)

I lost my sense of smell and most of my sense of taste in Feb, 2020. I noticed when I had a jar of Mentholatum open and couldn't smell it. I forgot about it until the next day when my partner was experimenting with chile Colorado and I thought it tasted bland. She could barely eat it because it was too hot.

My sense of smell and taste came back in a couple of days. I have heard some people lost their senses permanently. That would suck.
 
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I am kind of starting to think this surge is due more to behavioral changes than anything particularly special about Delta. It was just three weeks ago the CDC said no to masks inside. And July 4th was freedom-from-the-virus day and people seem to have taken that to heart. Obviously rises in these heavily-affected states started occurring prior to that time and Delta plays a role. But I think it is more than just a crazy contagious variant.

Delta is likely pretty contagious, more so than the original as it evolves to the human body, but I don’t think we can ignore that people are doing nothing now to stop the wave.

There’s no data on this of course. I just wonder how much is lack of precautions vs. anything particularly special about this variant. (Again - not saying it is not worse - all evidence says it is worse, just not sure how much.)

Cases are rising fast, but I would guess slower than they did in NYC in February & March 2020.


the most bizarre symptom is her almost complete inability to taste food.
I hope she regains it quickly. Can take many months, but hopefully the vaccine limits the damage.
 
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I am kind of starting to think this surge is due more to behavioral changes than anything particularly special about Delta. It was just three weeks ago the CDC said no to masks inside. And July 4th was freedom-from-the-virus day and people seem to have taken that to heart. Obviously rises in these heavily-affected states started occurring prior to that time and Delta plays a role. But I think it is more than just a crazy contagious variant.

Delta is likely pretty contagious, more so than the original as it evolves to the human body, but I don’t think we can ignore that people are doing nothing now to stop the wave.

There’s no data on this of course. I just wonder how much is lack of precautions vs. anything particularly special about this variant. (Again - not saying it is not worse - all evidence says it is worse, just not sure how much.)

Cases are rising fast, but I would guess slower than they did in NYC in February & March 2020.

NYC was the perfect storm conditions. NYC is the biggest concentration of humans in North America and the pandemic was still so new that few were taking adequate precautions. It also arrived in New York at a time of the year when people were still mostly indoors.

It's hard to realize now but pandemic precautions were essentially dead in living memory in North America when this started. The few who remember the last serious pandemic were small children at the time and are now over 100.

Both Cuomo and de Blasio knew it was going to get bad as soon as it got started there.

Many parts of Asia and Africa responded more quickly to the threat because they have had serious pandemics in living memory. For those in East Asia it was SARS part II. Africa has had Ebola outbreaks.

Pandemic fatigue, politics, and changes in guidance are probably contributing to the latest outbreak, but I also think Delta is the most severe variant we've seen yet. We'll know more in a few weeks when the infectious disease experts finish analyzing the data.
 
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It's hard to realize now but pandemic precautions were essentially dead in living memory in North America when this started. The few who remember the last serious pandemic were small children at the time and are now over 100.
Correct, although there are some like me who recall those who lived through the 1916 flu and their behaviours that (presumably) changed due to it. I had an uncle who would never cough in the same room where there were other people. He would always get up and walk in a different room.
 
My doctor told me that if someone has a reaction to the vaccine within 24 hours of getting the shot, they likely had COVID and the body's immune system recognizes the vaccine as the virus.
That makes some sense for someone who has a strong reaction to the first shot. Most people I know had very little reaction to the first shot, but moderate-to-strong reaction to the second.

I am kind of starting to think this surge is due more to behavioral changes than anything particularly special about Delta.
I'd expect to see all variants surging if that were the case. Delta would still surge faster, but not as dramatically.
 
NYC was the perfect storm conditions. NYC is the biggest concentration of humans in North America and the pandemic was still so new that few were taking adequate precautions. It also arrived in New York at a time of the year when people were still mostly indoors.

It's hard to realize now but pandemic precautions were essentially dead in living memory in North America when this started. The few who remember the last serious pandemic were small children at the time and are now over 100.

Both Cuomo and de Blasio knew it was going to get bad as soon as it got started there.

Many parts of Asia and Africa responded more quickly to the threat because they have had serious pandemics in living memory. For those in East Asia it was SARS part II. Africa has had Ebola outbreaks.

Pandemic fatigue, politics, and changes in guidance are probably contributing to the latest outbreak, but I also think Delta is the most severe variant we've seen yet. We'll know more in a few weeks when the infectious disease experts finish analyzing the data.

OT... Those who built America's infrastructure are over 100 years old. That explains why there are so many objecting to infrastructure upgrades.
 
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I'd expect to see all variants surging if that were the case. Delta would still surge faster, but not as dramatically.
I guess I should rephrase what I said slightly. “Anything particularly special about Delta” is understating Delta and misses the point I made earlier about the very short serial interval. It is probably a bit more contagious too, that seems clear. But it also spreads faster (not necessarily the same as more contagious!!!!), which makes a HUGE difference in how it can outcompete other variants. The question I was getting at is how much are those characteristics contributing to the rise vs. just general carelessness? Since it spreads so fast, you’d expect it to rapidly outcompete other variants…and even squeeze them out even in an environment where overall conditions are conducive to healthy growth of those other variants (because Delta generates immunity). So I’m not sure you should expect other variants to surge. Delta surges because it spreads so fast and people are careless, while other variants may gradually decline, even though normally they would grow in the current environment.

Time constants are a huge factor here - but if precautions were being maintained, time constants would not matter as much - if Rt is less than 1 it does not matter how short the serial interval is.

That’s what I was getting at - it doesn’t appear to me (yet!) to be some superbug, unlike the other variants, where it penetrates defenses and renders basic protections less useful. It just seems like it spreads really fast.

I might be wrong. As I said, it’s a bit more contagious- seems like you would expect that since it is probably contagious for a longer period since it becomes contagious earlier. But just doesn’t seem like it is doing anything special.

And I suspect if we had not changed the messaging, telling everyone to rip their masks off in enclosed spaces, we’d be in a better place. (Masks probably work just as well with Delta!) There is a subset of people not wearing masks anyway, but the set of people who just follow the basic guidance and listen to the gov’t is not small. Adding them to the pool of vulnerable (vaxxed or not) wasn’t helpful. At all.
 
Addendum: remember back in the day the 10-14 day quarantine period. And sometimes it seemed to take 5-7 days to show symptoms (not that unusual). It seems like with Delta that could be short. People have looked at this because it is important!


(Says no change - would be worrying!)

Alpha for reference (4-6 days or so):


I think it will be interesting to see how the distribution shifts when there is more data. Mechanistically it seems like it could be shorter, due to the viral load change.
 
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This article has an interesting angle on the latest Covid statistics.


The country’s summer of freedom from covid-19 is turning savage for the half of the nation that is still not fully vaccinated.


Coronavirus cases are increasing almost exclusively in the unprotected population. So The Washington Post adjusted its case, death and hospitalization rates to account for that — and found that in many places, the virus continues to rage among those who have not received a shot.
 
In San Diego, we're in the "infect all the children and young people" phase.

It irks me that they don't give good up-to-date incremental statistics on location of outbreaks & cases (this info lags by up to two weeks on TOP of the reporting lags).

I figure we'll double cases again by next week. Generally it looks like workplace and bar&restaurant exposures are rising while education-related exposures of course have dropped. Overall it continues to be really unclear where people get infected but I would guess work and restaurants are the primary risk factors. Retail also a significant risk factor.




Screen Shot 2021-07-20 at 5.16.05 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-21 at 11.18.18 AM.png
 
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The most frustrating thing right now is that the FDA cannot expedite approval of EUA for children, nor can they apparently expedite full approval for the vaccine in general.

It does not seem to me the full approval process is designed to match a case where an EUA is issued followed by 300 million administered doses…yet somehow it is not deemed safe for full approval. I am not sure what they are waiting for. I guess double-checking all the manufacturing steps and other safety and regulatory issues not related to inherent vaccine safety? Still, seems like time is of the essence.

It’s particularly important to get the EUA for 6-12 year olds ASAP. We are nearly out of time for the start of school. But does not seem like it will happen. Very sad.
 
I am kind of starting to think this surge is due more to behavioral changes than anything particularly special about Delta. It was just three weeks ago the CDC said no to masks inside. And July 4th was freedom-from-the-virus day and people seem to have taken that to heart. Obviously rises in these heavily-affected states started occurring prior to that time and Delta plays a role. But I think it is more than just a crazy contagious variant.
I think we are in the midst of a global experiment with many factors combined: delta (and other) variants, policy changes (re mask wearing, social distancing, etc.), vaccine hesitancy, politics, and more. Statistical analysis can help tease apart some of the data but cause and effect is very hard to prove.
 
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Efficacy against Delta was discussed earlier:

Reduced efficacy looks to be real, and it's a blow to hopes of returning to normal.
. I agree that the evidence is really not clear, but the evidence of efficacy dropping below 85-90% is really not clearcut yet. I know the study from Israel was an outlier on the low side.
Substantially lower (more than 5-10% lower) efficacy than against Alpha? I think it is really unclear right now.

It looks like the reduction is from 94% to around 88%, so 6%. (This is from a very large UK dataset - PHE has done excellent work on quantifying various aspects of the pandemic.) This also shows us one additional reason (beyond higher levels of natural immunity) to be hopeful that the US will see a slightly different response to Delta (in areas with decent vaccination rates) than the UK - we don't use the AZ vaccine, which is less effective (74.5% -> 67% (Delta)).

This is all efficacy against symptomatic disease (actual protection against infection is a bit lower), and is also not an indicator of efficacy against severe disease (which is likely substantially higher for both vaccines).


E62ePEjVoAUb-ci.jpg


So, still some hope. Seems like we should issue strongly worded-mask advisories nationwide for everyone.
 
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'It's too late': Alabama doctor shares final moments of Covid patients, urges vaccination was mentioned on ABC News earlier tonight. That’s insane to think there are still people in the US who think it’s a hoax.

Dr. Brytney Cobia’s impassioned and sobering Facebook post from Sunday has been widely circulated on social media. The Birmingham physician said people are listening to her firsthand accounts of treating critical patients who regret never getting inoculated.

“I’m admitting young healthy people to the hospital with very serious COVID infections. One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late,” she wrote.

“A few days later when I call time of death, I hug their family members and I tell them the best way to honor their loved one is to go get vaccinated and encourage everyone they know to do the same,” she posted.

“They cry. And they tell me they didn’t know. They thought it was a hoax. They thought it was political. They thought because they had a certain blood type or a certain skin color they wouldn’t get as sick. They thought it was ‘just the flu,’” Cobia wrote.