Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Average age of 78? The data doesn't dispute that, but confirms it. Yes there will be younger and older.
>Covid kills people who are unhealthy, old, close to death

What is the average age of death from all causes?

Find the answer and think about what this implies.

Covid kills people who are unhealthy, old, close to death.

Also 0.2% of COVID deaths are children. This is a staggering quantity especially for a communicable disease. Note that 0.2% of all deaths from cancer, and 0.2% of heart disease deaths, are in children.

About 20% of the deaths of children are in children who have no known medical conditions at all.

COVID is a #4 to #6 killer of children, depending on the month - it may be even higher in some specific child age groups - and it is a LOT easier to stop than some of the other causes of death in children.

COVID is most certainly NOT a disease of the old, if 0.2% of the deaths are in *children* (we’re not even looking at 18-50!) and the average age of death from COVID is 78. In fact, that average age proves that it kills a huge number of young people. It’s just simple math.

Perhaps a better metric would be years lost due to death.

It’s about 11 years last I checked, but that was a while ago, so not sure the current numbers - they’re probably increasing since elderly people are preferentially vaccinated now. Insane.

 

[Terminator857]

I'm claiming that stating that just because the average age of death may very well be into the retirement age category (65+), that does not mean that very significant numbers of people who are younger are not dying.

That does not dispute any of my claims.

You claimed "Covid kills people who are unhealthy, old, close to death. Plane crash kills people in the prime of their life." This is not true or at the very least

O.K. let me talk more like a lawyer to please you. Plane crash kills people that are healthy and younger on average than Covid.

... it does not account for hospitalizations or long-COVID cases which are far greater than deaths.

long-covid: is that fear mongering? Wasn't intended to account for hospitalizations, but we can talk about that too.

Either way, I guess you're with killing people as long as they are close to death.

There has to be some balance between a normal life, inconveniencing people, increasing crime, because people where masks, and saving lives. As I previously stated I'm in favor of stronger measures during winter when deaths and hospitalizations are higher.

I guess we should encourage the spread of disease in elder-care facilities?

Not sure how that sarcasm is helpful. No one has suggested anything close to this.

You're right - why spend money, time and effort keeping people alive when they're going to die soon, anyway?

I see I have struck a chord and you are angry.

So long, grandma!

Yes, the people at risk should take preventative measures, whatever that means, including self isolating, regular booster shots, etc...

 

[EVNow]

Covid kills people who are unhealthy, old, close to death. Plane crash kills people in the prime of their life. Perhaps a better metric would be years lost due to death.

So ?

Would you get less time in jail if you murder an old person vs a person in the "prime of their life" ?

 

[EVNow]

yet we still continue security theater without complaint.

Yes - esp that shoes thing.

One mentally challenged guy tried to smuggle some explosives in shows and try to light the match to his own shoes and failed to do it. Once.

Now millions of people have to daily take off their shoes when going through airports.

Ofcourse nobody wants to remove that restriction now because that would attract attention and may be some other nut will try it and is successful this time.

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504110799249367041

 

[wdolson]

long-covid: is that fear mongering? Wasn't intended to account for hospitalizations, but we can talk about that too.

Are you doubting that long-COVID exists? It does, my partner has it. It's real and it really sucks.

 

[bpobill]

Yet, from Googling for covid deaths us, which brings up NY Times data, current 7-day moving average of COVID deaths in the US is 1,026 in a day. That's still pretty terrible.

One airplane crash killing everyone aboard is tragic, but we're still having the equivalent of 3 or 4 of these EVERY day in the US. But, it's ok? Mild? Get on with life? Put on your big boy pants?

The worst flu season at Burden of Influenza killed 52,000 in a year in the US, or only 142/day if you spread it out over 365 days. If we got down to say 142 COVID deaths/day and stayed there or below, then yeah, probably the US would be fine w/that level of deaths, no masking, no social distancing, no at home school, no regular testing, etc.

As I posted earlier, COVID is surging in some places in China and Hong Kong. At last check, South Korea is getting hit hard again. Europe's hitting surges again: Covid cases rise in Europe as omicron subvariant spreads. Will the U.S. be next?.

Death from covid or death with covid? Cant differentiate between the two with numbers. Big difference buddy. Lots of incentives to mark people that died from covid. This has been an issue the entire pandemic.

The overwhelming majority of people want to get on with a normal life as polls show. If you are scared wear 10 masks or stay home. I just had it along with my entire household and extended family. It was very mild for everyone.

I feel sad for people that live in fear like this. I truly do. I dont understand the logic behind it at all. It doesnt matter what you do. You will get it at one point of another. Probably many many times for the rest of your life. Its not going anywhere. Just like a cold, flu, and many other viruses. We will get milder and worse strains. Just like the flu. My suggestion? Grow a pair and accept reality. Masks wont save you, and theres a vaccine to prevent severe illness. The chances of you being fine are incredibly favorable to you. I have gone back to reality the second the vaccine was available to me. Fear was gone. Not even a blip on my radar. Thumb me down all you want but im stating facts. You are using fear to make life choices then so be it. You live your life in fear, I will not.

 

[bpobill]

Furthermore the overwhelming majority of people with covid issues/death are obese. Why dont people devote their time to helping others make better choices and be healthier? Why dont we focus on being fat like they did with covid? Are we afraid to hurt others feelings?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Death from covid or death with covid? Cant differentiate between the two with numbers. Big difference buddy. Lots of incentives to mark people that died from covid. This has been an issue the entire pandemic.

Has it? I thought excess death numbers lined up pretty well in countries with good testing?
I do agree that the Omicron wave where you’ve got a significant percentage of the population infected at the same time may be different.

 

[EVNow]

Going to be an "interesting" couple of weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504508893879160847

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504491716690251776

 

[JRP3]

I have gone back to reality the second the vaccine was available to me. Fear was gone. Not even a blip on my radar. Thumb me down all you want but im stating facts. You are using fear to make life choices then so be it. You live your life in fear, I will not

The funny part is there are many people just a little bit more extreme than you who think you are a cowardly sheep for getting the vaccine at all. Your attitude is exactly like theirs, just one step removed.

 

[TespaceX]

Association between covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and risk of immune mediated neurological events: population based cohort and self-controlled case series analysis

Some people say Covid is just like the seasonal cold and there’s nothing to worry about.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think vaxxed and relaxed is a reasonable position at this point. If not now then when?
All the pharmaceuticals are readily available now and it doesn’t look like an Omicron specific vaccine is happening any time soon.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Death from covid or death with covid? Cant differentiate between the two with numbers. Big difference buddy. Lots of incentives to mark people that died from covid. This has been an issue the entire pandemic

I agree with many of your points, that Covid is now endemic and deaths in the US are largely "voluntary". But you discredit yourself with this denialist BS.

Total US deaths, all causes:
2015 - 2,712,630
2016 - 2,744,248
2017 - 2,813,503
2018 - 2,839,205
2019 - 2,854,838
2020 - 3,358,814
2021 - 3.460,000 (est)

That's a million deaths above trend through 12/31/21 vs. the official ~850k Covid count. Contrary to your claim, most incentives were to mis-classify Covid deaths as non-Covid, especially in the early days. And the numbers clearly show we did.

 

[Slipstream]

I think vaxxed and relaxed is a reasonable position at this point. If not now then when?
All the pharmaceuticals are readily available now and it doesn’t look like an Omicron specific vaccine is happening any time soon.

"...vaxxed and relaxed..."...I like that!

Not sure if all the pharmaceuticals are available. Paxlovid is still trying to ramp up, and some supplements (i.e. N-acetyl cysteine) have been pulled by the FDA. But hopefully we are getting closer to the best therapeutic options.

 

[Daniel in SD]

"...vaxxed and relaxed..."...I like that!

Not sure if all the pharmaceuticals are available. Paxlovid is still trying to ramp up, and some supplements (i.e. N-acetyl cysteine) have been pulled by the FDA. But hopefully we are getting closer to the best therapeutic options.

I didn’t come up with myself
Paxlovid is plentiful now because production has picked up and everyone already got COVID in January. It’s too bad they couldn’t get it out a couple months earlier.
I suspect the monoclonal antibodies that work against Omicron are also available now but I haven’t checked.

 

[DanCar]

Trevor bedford presentation:

First half is a review of old stuff. Second half more interesting.
Fatality rate of omicron .05% IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio). Fatality rate of delta and alpha: .5%
Omicron peak infection rate was 6. R0
Omicron 2 starting to take over.
Endemic estimate about 60K fatalities per year. Flu around 30K. Car accidents 32K. Heart disease: 670K per year, cancer 600K.
Summary slide at 35:30

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Fatality rate of omicron .05% IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio). Fatality rate of delta and alpha: .5%

Worth noting this is not really apples-to-apples.

Intrinsic IFR of Omicron is about one third that of Delta, so about the same as the original version (non-VOC is what he calls it).


But vaccination (and boosting) and population immunity bring it down to 0.05%. (And of course getting rid of all that pesky “dry kindling”. )

So if someone is still unvaccinated and haven’t got it yet, they’re at roughly 2020 risk levels.

Omicron peak infection rate was 6.

Peak Rt was about 3, similar to the initial completely unmitigated wave. R0 is about 6 (so nothing like measles…not a surprise at all…but very contagious compared to influenza).

 

[Terminator857]

...
Endemic estimate about 60K fatalities per year. Flu around 30K. Car accidents 32K. Heart disease: 670K per year, cancer 600K.
...

Perhaps enthusiastic thread participants should declare a war on sugar if they want to save the most lives.