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WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
Different tangent -- battery replacement cost.
Three important factors at play here:
Three important factors at play here:
- The battery doesn't fail catastrophically (usually), so you can choose when to replace the unit, based on when you need more range than it's providing.
- The prices of batteries (in real dollars) are falling slowly but steadily. Moore's law isn't in play, but long-term forces have been driving down prices by 7%/year or so.
- The battery has substantial resale value. Although the battery (per point 1) no longer provides the range you want, it still holds a goodly amount of electricity. I predict that some clever company will start buying up used EV batteries, bundle them, and use them as grid-scale electric storage devices.
If Tesla should fail, even then replacement battery's won't be a problem.
It uses of the shelf batteries, put into series.
If Tesla fails, i think many battery-companies will like to buy the patents or take licenses to provide you with replacements!
Bit like you can find all kind of replacement-parts for all kinds of old-timers!
So being afraid to have no replacement-battery is not grounded I think!
It uses of the shelf batteries, put into series.
If Tesla fails, i think many battery-companies will like to buy the patents or take licenses to provide you with replacements!
Bit like you can find all kind of replacement-parts for all kinds of old-timers!
So being afraid to have no replacement-battery is not grounded I think!
I was actually thinking about this. GA Power offers some real nice prices with their EV time of use schedule 'super off peak' at 1.25 cents per kWh. You have to pay 19.3 cents during ‘peak’ (daytime summer). But if I could buy a used battery pack and an inverter I could charge it during super off peak and then power my house from the battery during ‘peak’ times and probably half my power bill. If I got 30kWh out of my battery I could probably never use ‘peak’ power times. And if I got at 60kWh pack I could only pay ‘super off peak’.
Right now I am paying about 5 cents in the winter per kWh, and about 7 cents a kWh in the summer. I would pay top tier power for my EV in the summer which would be 8.6 cents a kWh. But if this went to 1.25 cents per kWh I could quarter my power bill in the winter, and cut it to 15% in the summer. It would easily be worth it to install such a system. I have room in my garage right next to my breaker panel too!
Does anyone have a used Roadster battery they want to sell?
EDIT: I also just realized with this setup I could put in a 100A feed to charge my Model S and not have to worry about drawing more than my houses 150A feed. Because I could power my house with the used battery, while the car charged, then charge the used battery and power my house with the power company power. And then stop using anything by 7am.
EDIT: I am actually thinking my battery dying on my Model S will now be a boon, versus a serious cost.
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Once again I got bored and started messing with my comparison spreadsheets. This time around Google Drive (aka Google Docs aka Office Online knockoff) has matured to the point where all the equations/functions I was using work. Here's the
TeslaVsICEv4 Google Drive link
Brief list of things changed added to the original post.
TeslaVsICEv4 Google Drive link
Brief list of things changed added to the original post.
Nice work but I would argue it's not realistic. A few things:
1) It's unrealistic to assume gas will increase at 8% per year on average more than the general rate of inflation. I know a lot of real estate agents who talked that way back in 2006. Past performance is no indication of future performance. Markets would react and bring down demand which is already happening due to many other much cheaper sources of fuel such as natural gas.
2) You should figure the entire cost of the car in your interest calculations, not just the loan amount. The cash that you put up would otherwise be making you money if you didn't use it to buy the car. You also have to do this for the ongoing expenses which will reduce their cost due to the fact that you won't have to pay them for several years. That will make the gasser a lot cheaper in the comparison.
3) Why did you stop at 10 years? A car with only 150k mi on it is considered low mileage around here.
4) Tesla MS maintenance fees are ridiculously high for an EV but aren't shown that way on your spreadsheet. Without tires it's $600 /12,500 mi. Your spreadsheet shows it less than that - were you hoping to get 150,000 mi on the original tires?
5) Other minor stuff but I'll leave it alone... Don't want to discourage you... especially if this is your justification for buying the car!
Thanks for the feedback. No comparison like this can be truly realistic without being able to accurately predict the future. The best you can hope for is to bound the problem with the best knowledge you have and like others have mentioned that isn't done by looking at just one snapshot of your calculations. Several scenarios should be examined of the most likely variables that would impact what you're looking for. I whipped this together for fun so I'm not expecting extra fine accuracy. As long as I can be in a ballpark for costs I was satisfied.
Also just because I entered a number in the shared form of the spreadsheet doesn't mean I believe it to be the most accurate prediction of the future. The great thing about the spreadsheet is this number is easily edited if you believe the trend will be different :wink: Just load the spreadsheet then select File -> Make a Copy and you will be able to edit all of the number in your account.
1) If it weren't for the terrible US economy gas would have probably followed the 8% trend of the past but for the moment gas is holding steady and at times getting cheaper. Even with the heavy subsidies for oil in the market the more the "easy" oil is no longer available to get it would be impossible for the price of gas to remain the same.
2) Yeah that can be done but that would make reading and editing the data even more difficult to manage.
3) It can go out for over 20 years but like the Mayan calendar it had to end at some point. If you enter that you drive over 15000 miles a year you can simulate extra wear and tear on a vehicle that way but then you get into the territory of possible engine component replacements and possibly battery pack replacements. I wasn't focused on that for this. IMO battery pack replacement is preferable cheaper to rundown ICE related repairs at that high of mileage
4) If you prepay the MS maintenance it is cheaper than $600 per year or 12500 miles, whichever comes first. I also mentioned that I assumed tire replacement to be equivalent for both vehicles so it's not included. I guess it can be lump into the expenses section if someone really wanted to.
5) This is just a for fun thing I whipped up so no amount of criticism would discourage me. Nothing like this would be perfect. It is nice to see that when I adjust the inputs to be like other comparison tools that is does pretty good though :smile: Nothing's perfect though.
To me it was amazing when attempting to equal out the total cost numbers and seeing what the MSRP the ICE would have to be (~$70k MS would be similar to a ~$40k ICE over 150,000 miles. After that many miles I usually want a new car anyway. Might as well have it be an awesome Tesla Model S)
My numbers low ball the ICE maintenance costs too. Every ICE car I've worked on past 100,000 miles was so much money/time beyond general preventative maintenance.
Fair enough! Yeah I kind of did some of the same when trying to convince my wife that my Roadster didn't really cost as much as it did.:wink: She didn't fall for it.
You will find most people on TMC agree with you. But I disagree. I think all of the obvious arguments for wild year over year gas price increases (and 8%/yr is wild) have already been taken into account in the current price. Why wouldn't they be? Last time I checked I think the GAO was using about 80 basis points per yr above the general rate of inflation for gasoline. That's 1/10th as much as you are predicting and they are seasoned economists who have spent boat-loads of money to get their numbers.
It shouldn't. In Excel look up the functions NPV() and PV(). They require that you come up with an interest rate or rate of return on investment.
The latest predictions for MS battery lifetime are 14 - 20 years at 12.5k mi per year. Nobody knows this for sure but it's a lot more likely than 8%/yr gas inflation.
Yeah, it's fun to do these things. I agree that you probably low-balled the ICE maintenance. Tweak that until it makes up for your inflated gas prices!:smile:
I recently had a teacher call me from a local voc-tech center who thinks a good EV would be more like an airplane than a car - cost effective to keep it on the road for several decades. Not sure I'd go that far, but an interesting concept. It bothers me every time I read another article that only goes out 3 or 5 years and then concludes EVs are "still way more expensive." Duh.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I've been making that same point for a while, especially a vehicle like the S which uses aluminum, or an EV that uses composite materials. They should last much longer than a conventional vehicle and could be thought of more like an airplane, or boat. People often recondition planes and repower and upgrade boats since the initial investment in building it is higher and the basic structure remains sound for decades. At some point a Model S could get a new interior, new suspension parts, a new pack, and be ready for another 20+ years of service. Of course no one takes that into account when calculating environmental impacts and ownership costs.
I am in 100% agreement with you. I think about every 8-12 years I will need a new battery. And maybe in the future getting a new screen/computing bits. I fully expect to give this car to my unborn children!
Not me.
I think that comparing this car to a PC is at least as appropriate as comparing it to a boat or airplane. PCs require little maintenance but the state of the art moves very fast. Boats and airplanes require a ton of maintenance, but the state of the art moves rather slowly. Car technology moves relatively quickly, and I don't see that slowing down. Model S is already behind its contemporaries in adaptive cruise control, pre-collision avoidance, lane departure warning, blind spot warning, etc. A few years ago, that stuff was only in flagship luxury cars. Today you can get pre-collision warning and lane departure warning on a Chevy Malibu (for $400). Google has built driverless cars. In 16 years, I imagine most cars will be substantially safer for inattentive drivers. Even if the cars aren't completely autonomous, they'll probably at least be able to sense when the driver's inattention is making a crash likely. In 2030, are you going to want your teen driving one of those newer smart cars or some 2012 model that doesn't even realize that it's hurtling toward a stopped car at 50 mph?
I think Model S will become obsolete about as fast as any other car out there. Not because of maintenance, but because of a lack of features. If they allow low level 3rd party development through a powerful software development kit, I can see 3rd party people trying to extend the lifetime of the car. But if 2022's feature is heavily hardware intensive, I think you're just going to want to get a new car.
I expect today's cars (either BEV or ICE) will be far more reliable than 1990s cars, but will become obsolete just as fast.
my $0.02,
Derek
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
PC's are required to work in an ever more strenuous environment, (more demanding software), where a vehicle is not. The Physics of driving remain the same, that's why there is a huge classic car market, and those vehicles can still perform quite well, while older PC's never can. Certainly there will be people who always want the latest and greatest car, but there will also be a large market for older vehicles that can still perform admirably. Sub 6 second 0-60 will never be outdated as long as you are turning wheels against pavement.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
For me the Model S will definitely be cheaper
Model S vs E60 M5
Model S wins by miles, with the M5s fuel consumption and expensive maintenance makes the model s a perfect replacement
Also hoping for a sizable solar system to offset the electricity usage
Model S vs E60 M5
Model S wins by miles, with the M5s fuel consumption and expensive maintenance makes the model s a perfect replacement
Also hoping for a sizable solar system to offset the electricity usage
Total Lifetime Costs: ICE vs Tesla Model S Performance 85 KwH
Just ran the calculations of lifetime ownership costs. It's actually cheaper to own a Tesla Model S Performance 85 KwH vs a $55k priced ICE. This includes the 10k for replacement battery but also assumes that you own your own business and can deduct mileage. Those with smaller batteries may do better.
Here's the link and spreadsheet. Enjoy!
Just ran the calculations of lifetime ownership costs. It's actually cheaper to own a Tesla Model S Performance 85 KwH vs a $55k priced ICE. This includes the 10k for replacement battery but also assumes that you own your own business and can deduct mileage. Those with smaller batteries may do better.
Here's the link and spreadsheet. Enjoy!
Some things you just cannot buy.
I buy gas on average 3 times a week, just for commuting, at an average of 10+ minutes per fill up (NJ-attendant only service, admittedly). That's two hours a month, 24 hours a year. One FULL DAY A YEAR! Significant!
Assuming that I hang a charge cord in my bay, connecting should take about 10 seconds on each of 20 work days a month, 3.3 minutes a month or 40 minutes a year. Insignificant!
Now there's meaningful savings!
If I keep the car 10 years and
I buy gas on average 3 times a week, just for commuting, at an average of 10+ minutes per fill up (NJ-attendant only service, admittedly). That's two hours a month, 24 hours a year. One FULL DAY A YEAR! Significant!
Assuming that I hang a charge cord in my bay, connecting should take about 10 seconds on each of 20 work days a month, 3.3 minutes a month or 40 minutes a year. Insignificant!
Now there's meaningful savings!
If I keep the car 10 years and
SCW-Greg
Active Member
Here's a much simpler way to look at lifetime cost calculations, without being dependent on business ownership and mileage write-offs...
Saving and Rolling with a Tesla Sedan
Saving and Rolling with a Tesla Sedan
Alexander
P# 8,878
I ran similar numbers, but compared the Model S to the combined costs of my 64MPG Honda Insight, and my 22MPG Honda Accord. I have a 2012 Honda Accord to haul the kido around and a 2000 Honda Insight for work (that model year only seats two). My Model S will take the place of both cars, and afterrunning the numbers it turned out to be slightly more expensive to have the Model S then it did to keep the cars I have now. But the way I look at it, I'll be getting a lot more car for my money, not to mention the convenience of owning only one car instead of two. So even though it's not going to save me money in the long run, I think it'sworth it.
There have been a number of threads on this topic. Here are a couple that you may find interesting
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/5196-Cost-Comparison
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/8498-Model-X-Comparison-and-Total-Cost-of-Ownership
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/5196-Cost-Comparison
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/8498-Model-X-Comparison-and-Total-Cost-of-Ownership
