CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion

[Dave EV]

So if you know anyone on the fence about solar, Biden just handed them more money to get solar, and California just handed them more time to get solar. Tell them to stop dragging their feet and get their azz in gear.

Yes - not only does solar get bumped back up to 30% tax credit until the end of 2032, standalone batteries also now qualify for 30% tax credit as well, with no need for them to be tied to solar.

This should be good for net metering, as this will reduce the cost of batteries for load shifting for those who can't install solar.

 

[Dave EV]

Diablo Canyon can't run forever. At some point it will be decommissioned, or cleaned up after an earthquake, so no worries your nice NBCs will get used.

Diablo Canyon happens to be a contender for the US version of Fukushima in my book, and I hope that Diablo Canyon's backup generators have been earthquake reinforced and raised- but I doubt it.

Not only that, but the LCOE of Diablo Canyon is not cost effective.

Way back in 2016, Forbes reported that energy from the plant costs $70/MWh (levelized 2014 $). I've seen one report reports that claim that keeping it open through 2035 will save $2.6 billion, but that's hard to believe given than standalone solar was $34/MWh in 2020 (before ITC). Adding batteries to solar projects of similar size (same peak power output, 4-hour duration) adds about $20/MWh. So now you're looking at $54/MWh for solar + storage - quite a bit less than the $70/MWh cost of keeping Diablo running.

https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/utility-scale_solar_2021_technical_brief.pdf

The only thing Diablo does is buy time - it's inevitable that it will close and be replaced by solar and batteries.

Anyway, now that NEM3.0 has been kicked down the road - don't delay as @holeydonut says - get off your behind and install as much solar and batteries as you can while things are still good!

 

[STS-134]

Anyway, now that NEM3.0 has been kicked down the road - don't delay as @holeydonut says - get off your behind and install as much solar and batteries as you can while things are still good!

They can still screw you over, simply by adjusting the rates (peak vs. off-peak) and the times each rate takes effect. I've told every solar person who's come to my door to get me an agreement from PG&E in writing to not change the hours of peak and off-peak rates or the ratio of the cost of peak to off-peak (adjusting the rates themselves is fine but they must be adjusted up and down by identical percentages). Not a single one has been able to do it.

 

[holeydonut]

They can still screw you over, simply by adjusting the rates (peak vs. off-peak) and the times each rate takes effect. I've told every solar person who's come to my door to get me an agreement from PG&E in writing to not change the hours of peak and off-peak rates or the ratio of the cost of peak to off-peak (adjusting the rates themselves is fine but they must be adjusted up and down by identical percentages). Not a single one has been able to do it.

You should add some batteries man. And if you go with Tesla you’ll basically be able to grid charge from the Grid during off-peak.

 

[getakey]

Not only that, but the LCOE of Diablo Canyon is not cost effective.

Way back in 2016, Forbes reported that energy from the plant costs $70/MWh (levelized 2014 $). I've seen one report reports that claim that keeping it open through 2035 will save $2.6 billion, but that's hard to believe given than standalone solar was $34/MWh in 2020 (before ITC). Adding batteries to solar projects of similar size (same peak power output, 4-hour duration) adds about $20/MWh. So now you're looking at $54/MWh for solar + storage - quite a bit less than the $70/MWh cost of keeping Diablo running.

https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/utility-scale_solar_2021_technical_brief.pdf

The only thing Diablo does is buy time - it's inevitable that it will close and be replaced by solar and batteries.

Anyway, now that NEM3.0 has been kicked down the road - don't delay as @holeydonut says - get off your behind and install as much solar and batteries as you can while things are still good!

would like to see that report. Hard to replace 24/7 10% of the grid with renewables
shutting Diablo down cost more than keeping it going

 

[STS-134]

You should add some batteries man. And if you go with Tesla you’ll basically be able to grid charge from the Grid during off-peak.

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/powerwall/powerwall_2_ac_warranty_us_1-4.pdf

Powerwall cost: $11k
Warranty: 37.8 MWh of aggregate throughput

($10000/37.8MWh)*(1MWh/1000kWh)*(100¢/$) = 26.455¢/kWh

So the powerwall adds 26.455¢ to the cost of each kWh you push through it (!?!?). Why do people buy these? Even if it lasts for twice as long as the warranty, it still adds around 13¢/kWh to the cost of your electricity.

 

[getakey]

I bought PWs for backup. Do the math for a whole house generator. At least there is some return with a PW

 

[STS-134]

I bought PWs for backup. Do the math for a whole house generator. At least there is some return with a PW

PWs are kind of a crappy backup. 13.5 kWh and then done. At least a whole house generator can keep you running all day if the power goes out. If you have two AC units and each consumes around 3 kW, a PW will only power those units for around 135 minutes (and that's assuming nothing else is running). I suppose you could buy 2 or 3 or 4 PWs, but that's WAY more costly than a whole house generator.

 

[getakey]

PWs are kind of a crappy backup. 13.5 kWh and then done. At least a whole house generator can keep you running all day if the power goes out. If you have two AC units and each consumes around 3 kW, a PW will only power those units for around 135 minutes (and that's assuming nothing else is running). I suppose you could buy 2 or 3 or 4 PWs, but that's WAY more costly than a whole house generator.

I have 3 PWs. I have solar plus PW so its not just the PW capacity. Yes Costly, but I can go multiple days in the Summer without power - perhaps indefinitely without fuel charges!
While I'm not in a power outage, I get to arbitrage my rates through the PWs so I'm saving money every day. Sure that savings might have an ROI of 10 years but what is the ROI of a generator? Its nothing. Watch it sit there after you've paid $10K+ and wait for the outage. Plus pay for fuel when you do get an outage. Plus does your street have the NG capacity to keep it running. Many houses do not.

If you have solar, PWs are the perfect backup

 

[STS-134]

I have 3 PWs. I have solar plus PW so its not just the PW capacity. Yes Costly, but I can go multiple days in the Summer without power - perhaps indefinitely without fuel charges!
While I'm not in a power outage, I get to arbitrage my rates through the PWs so I'm saving money every day. Sure that savings might have an ROI of 10 years

I'm pretty sure that the ROI of the PW is way longer than 10 years. The peak/off-peak rate spread on my rate plan is only about 13.5¢, for 3 hours per day, for 4 months of the year. For the other 8 months, it is only 4¢. I highly doubt that the PW is even going to last long enough to pay for half of itself. As things stand, it would have to last for double the warranty (twice 37.8 MWh aggregate throughput) assuming it is only ever used during June, July, August, and September.

But there's another, bigger issue and that is time. One PW can provide 13.8 kWh worth of power, so if we assume that it's cycled 100% every day for those 4 months (121 days), it would have to last over 22 years to pay for itself. We could assume that it's cycled to 100% on the other 244 days as well. In this case, it would save $1.8225 per day in June through September, and $0.54 per day during the other 8 months. Total savings per year: $1.8225*121 + $0.54*244 = $352.2825. Payback period in years: $11000/$352.2825 = ~31.2 years. At this point, you're asking for over 11,000 cycles from a battery that's being cycled from 0-100% every single day with zero degradation, which is basically not gonna happen.

Assuming it is only used during June through September, payback period is ~49.9 years and you're asking for around 6000 cycles from it.

Oh, and this assumes that you would have gotten a 0% ROI on the $11k if you'd invested it in something else. And that PG&E (or its successor) won't change the rate plans over those 30-50 years, which you know they will.

but what is the ROI of a generator? Its nothing. Watch it sit there after you've paid $10K+ and wait for the outage. Plus pay for fuel when you do get an outage. Plus does your street have the NG capacity to keep it running. Many houses do not.

I wouldn't depend on NG to run a generator. If the NG goes out at the same time your power does, you're back to being without power. Perhaps you can use NG, but you'd better have an on-site propane tank as a backup to the NG service.

 

[getakey]

I'm pretty sure that the ROI of the PW is way longer than 10 years. The peak/off-peak rate spread on my rate plan is only about 13.5¢, for 3 hours per day, for 4 months of the year. For the other 8 months, it is only 4¢. I highly doubt that the PW is even going to last long enough to pay for half of itself.

I wouldn't depend on NG to run a generator. If the NG goes out at the same time your power does, you're back to being without power. Perhaps you can use NG, but you'd better have an on-site propane tank as a backup to the NG service.

so what is the ROI for a propane generator? Nada. Same for NG nada
The ROI on my PWs is 10 years. My peak is $.60/kWh. My partial peak is $.35. My Off Peak is $.12/kWh

There is no ROI with a generator. Buy a Honda generator, save your food and roast in the heat. I'll be basking in AC

 

[STS-134]

so what is the ROI for a propane generator? Nada. Same for NG nada

It depends on how much you value having electricity when the grid power is down.

The ROI on my PWs is 10 years. My peak is $.60/kWh. My partial peak is $.35. My Off Peak is $.12/kWh

EV-A I'm guessing? Your peak is only 60¢/kWh for 4 months of the year. And I think your off-peak is probably 25¢. They took away/raised the 12¢ off peak rates a while ago. The other 8 months, your peak is 42¢, partial peak is 29¢ and your off peak is 22¢.

There is no ROI with a generator. Buy a Honda generator, save your food and roast in the heat. I'll be basking in AC

I have a small 120V generator. Been thinking about a 240V unit and generator transfer switch, or whole house, but I use it so infrequently, it's really not worth it.

PWs are still grotesquely overpriced. The Model 3 (let's assume performance model) costs around $56k and has a 82 kWh battery with 75 kWh usable capacity. This is about $747 per kWh of usable battery capacity assuming you just paid $56k for the batteries alone and don't care about the fact that you got a whole car along with the batteries. One PW is $11k for 13.5 kWh of usable capacity, or $815 per kWh of usable capacity. It's more expensive than the darn car and you don't even get a whole car!

 

[cwied]

I'm pretty sure that the ROI of the PW is way longer than 10 years. The peak/off-peak rate spread on my rate plan is only about 13.5¢, for 3 hours per day, for 4 months of the year. For the other 8 months, it is only 4¢. I highly doubt that the PW is even going to last long enough to pay for half of itself. As things stand, it would have to last for double the warranty (twice 37.8 MWh aggregate throughput) assuming it is only ever used during June, July, August, and September.

I think you're not considering the right rate plan for Powerwalls. PG&E's EV2-A rate has a peak/off-peak spread of $.352 during the 4 summer months and a spread of $.185 the rest of the year. The credits add up a lot more quickly with these numbers. $4.8576 * 121 + $2.553 * 244 = $1210.70, which means a 9 year break-even. The other thing to consider is that if you buy two Powerwalls (IMO, the minimum number that really makes sense at this point), the cost comes down to $8,500 per Powerwall, which cuts a couple of years off the pay-back period. After the 30% tax credit, the break-even time comes down further to five years.

Obviously it's not reasonable to cycle 100% every day, but it does show that the price is not that out of line.

 

[getakey]

It depends on how much you value having electricity when the grid power is down.

EV-A I'm guessing? Your peak is only 60¢/kWh for 4 months of the year. And I think your off-peak is probably 25¢. They took away/raised the 12¢ off peak rates a while ago. The other 8 months, your peak is 42¢, partial peak is 29¢ and your off peak is 22¢.

I have a small 120V generator. Been thinking about a 240V unit and generator transfer switch, or whole house, but I use it so infrequently, it's really not worth it.

PWs are still grotesquely overpriced. The Model 3 (let's assume performance model) costs around $56k and has a 82 kWh battery with 75 kWh usable capacity. This is about $747 per kWh of usable battery capacity assuming you just paid $56k for the batteries alone and don't care about the fact that you got a whole car along with the batteries. One PW is $11k for 13.5 kWh of usable capacity, or $815 per kWh of usable capacity. It's more expensive than the darn car and you don't even get a whole car!

and the generator has an ROI of ???
$11K but minus tax credit

 

[ohmman]

I'm pretty sure that the ROI of the PW is way longer than 10 years. The peak/off-peak rate spread on my rate plan is only about 13.5¢, for 3 hours per day, for 4 months of the year. For the other 8 months, it is only 4¢. I highly doubt that the PW is even going to last long enough to pay for half of itself. As things stand, it would have to last for double the warranty (twice 37.8 MWh aggregate throughput) assuming it is only ever used during June, July, August, and September.

But there's another, bigger issue and that is time. One PW can provide 13.8 kWh worth of power, so if we assume that it's cycled 100% every day for those 4 months (121 days), it would have to last over 22 years to pay for itself. We could assume that it's cycled to 100% on the other 244 days as well. In this case, it would save $1.8225 per day in June through September, and $0.54 per day during the other 8 months. Total savings per year: $1.8225*121 + $0.54*244 = $352.2825. Payback period in years: $11000/$352.2825 = ~31.2 years. At this point, you're asking for over 11,000 cycles from a battery that's being cycled from 0-100% every single day with zero degradation, which is basically not gonna happen.

Assuming it is only used during June through September, payback period is ~49.9 years and you're asking for around 6000 cycles from it.

Oh, and this assumes that you would have gotten a 0% ROI on the $11k if you'd invested it in something else. And that PG&E (or its successor) won't change the rate plans over those 30-50 years, which you know they will.

I wouldn't depend on NG to run a generator. If the NG goes out at the same time your power does, you're back to being without power. Perhaps you can use NG, but you'd better have an on-site propane tank as a backup to the NG service.

I think the more fair comparison is to do the math for when the PWs come to parity with the cost of the generator, not to where they pay for themselves entirely. The latter disregards the backup functionality they provide. And even comparing that way, you have to remember that after that time, they will continue to provide some return while the generator will not.

 

[sunwarriors]

PWs are kind of a crappy backup. 13.5 kWh and then done. At least a whole house generator can keep you running all day if the power goes out. If you have two AC units and each consumes around 3 kW, a PW will only power those units for around 135 minutes (and that's assuming nothing else is running). I suppose you could buy 2 or 3 or 4 PWs, but that's WAY more costly than a whole house generator.

I think for summer and if you run AC a lot, PWs or any batteries are tough to keep up since ACs just drain too much, but for the other 6+ months, having batteries can pretty much allow some folks to use 0 grid electricity since no AC needed in the winter and in So Cal (and some other places), it's sunny more than it's not.

I use more power now due to AC, but during the winter months, had many many days of 0 grid use since no AC, batteries were enough to run overnight before the next day and even if cloudy early, there is enough sun to charge up batteries 100% by 12pm or so.

I think as long as someone (not you, it sounds like) cares less about ROI on batteries, they feel like a no brainer to me since it feels great to have them (wish I got 2 more). If ROI is your only deciding factor due to no power outages, etc....hard to make a case and I don't even try.

Just not for you really and not even going to bother trying to convince you since no point.

In San Diego, peak power over baseline is ~$0.70 kWh now going up soon. On EV-5, that spread is $0.70 and $0.12 so a massive gap for people who need to export high and consume low. I think SDG&E just asked to raise rates for another $4 billion.

If the world gets worst or rates/climate gets worst, we'll look into a generator too. Lastly, $$ in a bank account doesn't really do much for anyone I feel. It's just a number after a certain point and for folks who can afford it, not a big deal (and some got free PWs). Some folks also like to just run the house at 70 degrees all day when it's 95 out or waste it on other things.

 

[BGbreeder]

For many people, I think that WFH changed the perception of the utility of having power through disruptions, such as storms, wildfire smoke, and grid failures.

It is my personal experience that folks installing generators tend to overestimate their demand (e.g. do you really have to run the double oven and the AC simultaneously in the middle of a power outage?), and seriously underestimate both the likely duration of outages, and the amount of fuel that they would need, or in the case of natural gas generators the certainty that for some disruptions there won't be natural gas available. The other item that often gets overlooked is the maintenance (annual service (filters, fluid(s), batteries every few years), daily/weekly oil changes when in use) and the weekly cycling of the generator. Those costs do add up, especially if the owner isn't doing the servicing. My suggestion would be to take your longest expected outage and triple it, and if you aren't then planning for ten days, you have probably underestimated the likely duration. Based on what I have seen, I would count on not getting refueled for the duration of the event.

Personally, I think that a simple ROI calculation that omits costs like the cost of spoiled food and medicines, lack of water for many, the need to move to hotels for those with medical needs, water damage risks (from frozen pipes), and the ability to continue to work from home / have your kids be able to do their class work, is an incomplete ROI, and would shed light on why for some a generator or powerwalls are a straightforward decision. If the plan is trusting emergency services to keep you fed and housed, I would suggest getting involved with those organizations in advance, so you know first hand what kind of support to expect, and when you are likely to get it. My county fairly recently had a major disaster event, with evacuations, and they did not offer any location to evacuate to, not even a parking area, and needless to say no support services, and this is not a poor county. The local malls, and shopping centers were running folks off. We ended up camping in the street in front of a friend's home, who mercifully had sympathetic neighbors. Neighboring counties offered human and animal evacuation arrangements, including shelter, food, and other services, so know what you might be in for.

Powerwalls certainly aren't a fix for every problem for everyone, but for many folks, myself included, they offer a substantial increase in resilience in case of disruptions, and for many months of the year enable us to be entirely electrically self sufficient.

As the Texas ERCOT electricity fiasco has shown, there are certainly scenarios under which there will not be natural gas, and the duration of the outage increases with the area of the impact, also borne out by recent wildfires, and recent earthquakes elsewhere in the world.

For us, the worst case events would be outages during overcast winter storms, but with conservation we could eke out ten to fourteen days. YMWV.

All the best,

BG

 

[STS-134]

For us, the worst case events would be outages during overcast winter storms, but with conservation we could eke out ten to fourteen days. YMWV.

Actually I think the worst case scenario is another Carrington style CME aimed directly at Earth that takes out so many transformers simultaneously that it takes months to get the electric grid back online, that happens at the beginning of a month long heat wave. PG&E can't even stop its grid from starting fires. Do you really think they designed it to properly shut down during a geomagnetic storm so that it can at least be brought back online manually in an undamaged state?

 

[Merrill]

When I was looking for backup I did not want any kind of propane or gas running, I was lucky enough to qualify for the powerwall incentIves. I now run the house on the powerwalls during peak hours and during the summer I have been getting credits from PG&E.

 

[BGbreeder]

Actually I think the worst case scenario is another Carrington style CME aimed directly at Earth that takes out so many transformers simultaneously that it takes months to get the electric grid back online, that happens at the beginning of a month long heat wave. PG&E can't even stop its grid from starting fires. Do you really think they designed it to properly shut down during a geomagnetic storm so that it can at least be brought back online manually in an undamaged state?

If you have not read what actually happened during the 1859 Carrington event, I recommend reading about it and then thinking about your current life, and lifestyle.

I am firmly on the page that a Carrington event today is an existential threat to most humans on the planet, and it is certain that it will occur sooner or later. This solar cycle is looking especially vigorous and we aren't at the peak yet.

Realistically, the effects from a Carrington sized event would more likely last many many years, and as a result, likely the end of life as we know it, and for many people on planet, the end of their lives, especially those in urban and suburban areas. How many factories are currently self powered in a way that is likely to survive an EMP? Likely not many, which means post Carrington, almost all manufacturing will be off line, and stay that way. Refrigeration would be gone, medical supplies would run out in a couple of weeks, fresh food would be gone, and not many people can access grains and legumes directly and cook them without electricity or natural gas. Survival skews toward subsistence farmers in lesser developed countries who have surface water. Being realistic, most of the readers of this post would be very unlikely to survive the ensuing year. The scale of the problem is enormous, and thinking that the current population could forage their way out of it is ostrich thinking. Even if you had five years of food, water, and supplies cached, the odds that someone with less foresight and more desperate would not find you is pretty low. You would have to be pretty hidden for a long time. Really hidden. I suspect that it would need to be underground, never above ground, hidden.

Lest you think I am a die hard prepper, I am not. I know that I live too close to too many people; the psychos would be here in the first month.

Let me share a small story about the power of a single point failure; I once worked at a large facility (it employs over 13,000) that generated a significant percentage of its own power, using the waste heat for heating and chilled water for the facility. One day two squirrels met in the transfer switch from the grid to the plant to rest of the facility. Instant plasma, and no more switch. There happened to be one, and only, other switch in existence in the US, on the opposite side of the country. It took ten days or so to source it and install it. If the switch hadn't been available, the factory said it would be six months to build a new one. One item, for one facility, with no other damage. In a Carrington event, that would be time hundreds of millions. Oh and nobody to call as the phones are out. You would need to personally visit each supplier, in your self powered transportation. That is a big hole to dig out of, with no working infrastructure.

All the best,

BG