I'm in my 30s. My household makes around 100K+ a year and I own a home.
I think represent the "average" person that stood in line on 3/31.
I don't own many luxury things and i think i live pretty modestly. My current car is an old 1998 acura.
With that being said, we I thought this was going to be a 35K car and with options I would probably spend around 40-45K.
With the 7500 tax credit, it brings it down to a reason price where I am willingly to splurge a little. Yes, you got to live a little.
BUT 2 years later...
The car is actually 55K (with taxes, no EAP), and the fact that the 7.5k tax credit will be reduced by the time the 35,000 car comes out, it has us all looking for other options.
While I probably will get a STILL get a 3, if another car company (specifically honda or toyota) announces an EV like the BOLT or the 3 but at a 30K price tag i am sold. (i specifically did not buy a bolt because I will not buy from GM)
And for those that speak of supercharging network, well guys.... i rather just fly and rent a car with all the $$$ i saved from not buying a 55K car.
While many people that drive teslas make $$$$ and can easily buy a 100K car, there is a market of people like me who just want a really good deal like Elon stated. "Best car for 35000" Well that hasn't come and i'm starting to look elsewhere.
I guess I'm not as pessimistic as you are on that tax credit phase out vs the $35,000 config.
On the topic of Tesla and 200,000 the current insideevs scrorecard totals are:
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
Jan 2018 was ~3400
Feb 2018 was ~4500
Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?
Mar 2018 will be ~6000
April 2018 will be ~7000
May 2018 will be ~8000
June 2018 will be ~9000
July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.
Q3 2018 Full credit still
Q4 2018 Full credit still
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 50% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 25% of full amount
Q1 2020 no credit
To do that they can't sell more than 30,500 or so in the US between March 1 and June 30. Then they can open the flood gates on Jul 1 with no reason to hesitate or focus on Canadian or European shipments. Any thing they make over 30,500 in that time they need to sell outside the US.
If they can't make more than 30,000 in 4 months it doesn't matter.
In a nice scenario they make 45,000 or so in those 4 months and sell the excess 15,000 to Canadian customers. Maybe they switch over to Canadian car production for a couple of weeks in June and then switch back to US and stock pile a couple of weeks worth for July delivery.
If somehow they make more than US and Canada need in those 4 months they have to pick a 3rd country to start sending cars to. I doubt it comes to that. Surely there are enough Canadian reservations to absorb any overflow for a few months.
So to finish up I expect there to be a $35,000 config before the full tax credit goes away and I expect 20,000 or so of the low end configs going out before that first phase out to half credit.