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Current Tesla owners low take rate on reservations

dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,470
6,354
Knoxville, Tennessee
I'm in my 30s. My household makes around 100K+ a year and I own a home.
I think represent the "average" person that stood in line on 3/31.
I don't own many luxury things and i think i live pretty modestly. My current car is an old 1998 acura.

With that being said, we I thought this was going to be a 35K car and with options I would probably spend around 40-45K.
With the 7500 tax credit, it brings it down to a reason price where I am willingly to splurge a little. Yes, you got to live a little.

BUT 2 years later...
The car is actually 55K (with taxes, no EAP), and the fact that the 7.5k tax credit will be reduced by the time the 35,000 car comes out, it has us all looking for other options.

While I probably will get a STILL get a 3, if another car company (specifically honda or toyota) announces an EV like the BOLT or the 3 but at a 30K price tag i am sold. (i specifically did not buy a bolt because I will not buy from GM)

And for those that speak of supercharging network, well guys.... i rather just fly and rent a car with all the $$$ i saved from not buying a 55K car.

While many people that drive teslas make $$$$ and can easily buy a 100K car, there is a market of people like me who just want a really good deal like Elon stated. "Best car for 35000" Well that hasn't come and i'm starting to look elsewhere.

I guess I'm not as pessimistic as you are on that tax credit phase out vs the $35,000 config.

On the topic of Tesla and 200,000 the current insideevs scrorecard totals are:

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

Jan 2018 was ~3400
Feb 2018 was ~4500

Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?

Mar 2018 will be ~6000
April 2018 will be ~7000
May 2018 will be ~8000
June 2018 will be ~9000
July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.

Q3 2018 Full credit still
Q4 2018 Full credit still
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 50% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 25% of full amount
Q1 2020 no credit

To do that they can't sell more than 30,500 or so in the US between March 1 and June 30. Then they can open the flood gates on Jul 1 with no reason to hesitate or focus on Canadian or European shipments. Any thing they make over 30,500 in that time they need to sell outside the US.

If they can't make more than 30,000 in 4 months it doesn't matter.

In a nice scenario they make 45,000 or so in those 4 months and sell the excess 15,000 to Canadian customers. Maybe they switch over to Canadian car production for a couple of weeks in June and then switch back to US and stock pile a couple of weeks worth for July delivery.

If somehow they make more than US and Canada need in those 4 months they have to pick a 3rd country to start sending cars to. I doubt it comes to that. Surely there are enough Canadian reservations to absorb any overflow for a few months.

So to finish up I expect there to be a $35,000 config before the full tax credit goes away and I expect 20,000 or so of the low end configs going out before that first phase out to half credit.
 
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daniel

Active Member
May 7, 2009
4,800
3,612
Kihei, HI
Surprisingly, Most Tesla Model S and X Owners Haven't Opted For Model 3

I’m afraid Tesla is about to learn something that most legacy automobile manufacturers have had to learn the hard way.

Lots of initial interest, pre-orders, reservations, etc, frequently do not translate into actual orders and sales. Especially with EV’s. This is still a niche market. It’s unlikely there is anywhere near 400,000 a year actual demand for the M3.

Why would the owner of a Model S or Model X buy a Model 3? They already have an amazing Tesla electric car. Some have because they were in the market for another car. But I would not expect the number to be large.

2: Nobody expected the demand would be 400,000 cars a year. That's how many people put down $1,000 reservation fee for a car that would not be available for nearly two years.

3: An owner who chose not to configure is not someone who has "Opted not to get the car" unless he/she asks for a refund of the deposit. Otherwise these folks are waiting for an option that's not available yet. Mostly folks are waiting for AWD, P-AWD, the short-range battery, or the car without the upgraded interior.

I think an awful lot of owners are waiting for one or more of these options, because I reserved on Day 2, but was able to configure very soon after Tesla started accepting orders from outside California. There had to have been a lot of owners here in WA who reserved before I did. The fact that I was able to configure when I was suggests that a lot of folks deferred. But that's very different from choosing not to get the car.
 

ℬête Noire

Active Member
Jan 30, 2018
3,105
2,556
TX
3: An owner who chose not to configure is not someone who has "Opted not to get the car" unless he/she asks for a refund of the deposit. Otherwise these folks are waiting for an option that's not available yet. Mostly folks are waiting for AWD, P-AWD, the short-range battery, or the car without the upgraded interior.

It appear a somewhat surprising number are waiting for White interior, that they don't even know the specifics of yet. Which I don't 'get' and I'm sure leaves you puzzled as well, but there it is. :)

P.S. A common theme I've seen among those looking for a second car is they've got 90/100 S/X batteries they feel fulfills their long range/trip requirements so the SR is the predominant logical choice.
 
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novox77

1.21 Gigawatts
Nov 25, 2017
1,637
3,543
NH, MA
Model 3 Invites spreadsheet, while hardly representative of everyone who reserved, has a statistically significant population that makes it quite accurate. Bloomberg noted this as well and has compared their estimator to that of the spreadsheet's.

And the spreadsheet had employee + owners deferring just under 30% and 70% configuring first production model. This coincidentally is backwards from the Marketwatch reporting, which said 70% was deferring and 30% was configuring. It sure feels like someone mixed up their numbers.

Also, for those saying why would a current S/X owner buy a 3, the report did say that these were S/X owners WITH a reservation for a 3, not all S/X owners. One should be able to assume that if you put down a reservation, there's some intent to buy.

Then there are real cancellations, where people forfeit their place in line and get their deposit back. There's no way for anyone to know this rate. There's hearsay and rumors, but hardly a basis for solid reporting/journalism.

Here is the current config/defer rate which includes recent non-owner invites. We're trending toward more configs than deferrals.

o8Ne0ST.png


Link to the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...AJNfEF-vzj-vRo-3skcCXgO_Nc/edit#gid=348166296
Screenshot above came from the "Invites" sheet.
 
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daniel

Active Member
May 7, 2009
4,800
3,612
Kihei, HI
It appear a somewhat surprising number are waiting for White interior, that they don't even know the specifics of yet. Which I don't 'get' and I'm sure leaves you puzzled as well, but there it is. :)

I didn't even realize that. But I can understand waiting for your preferred color if you're in no hurry to get the car. Also, I wonder how many people are waiting for the white interior with a strong secondary reason of avoiding an early-production car. Some also might have several reasons but only state the most important one.

P.S. A common theme I've seen among those looking for a second car is they've got 90/100 S/X batteries they feel fulfills their long range/trip requirements so the SR is the predominant logical choice.

That makes a lot of sense.

I'm actually surprised that only 30% are deferring. It made more sense to me when I thought it was the other way around. To me this suggests that people want this car so badly they are buying a configuration they don't really prefer, in order to get the car sooner. (This is my case: I'd have gotten standard interior, no glass roof, P-AWD with EAP. I settled for upgraded interior, glass roof, and EAP because I wanted the car now. I figure I'll give it a year or two and then decide if I want to upgrade. I think I'd prefer AWD if I say in Spokane, but wouldn't need it if I move to Maui.)

I notice that "Avoid early production" is not on the list of reasons. I wonder if it was not offered as a choice on the survey, or there were too few to show up on the pie chart, or if those are the 47% "unspecified."
 

xav-

Active Member
May 26, 2016
1,187
821
Orange County CA
If you compare the base S-75D with the lowest price M3 currently available, there's about a $25K difference (50% more expensive).

On the M3, you get 50 miles more range and a better stereo, but you give up lifetime Supercharging, AWD, air suspension, quicker acceleration, a larger more luxurious car on a more mature (i.e. stable) platform, and maybe half of the $7,500 federal tax credit.

It would be interesting to learn how many M3 reservations are converted to 75D orders.
Base S + autopilot + leather + pano roof -> $84k If i remember. 250 mile range (and The range of the S is not underestimated unlike the 3)... $84k and no premium package no premium audio...

The only transactions that are converted into model S are from people who just don't want to wait... there are not many people who think the S is very competitive right now... except of course the YouTube Tesla channels who want to give you that "free supercharging"
 
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Evthusiast

Member
Nov 3, 2017
48
72
California
Stock holder since $20-$30 a share
Panicked when it went down to $18-19 a share way back when but did not sell
Sold a bit over the last year to diversify
Still holding a good amount and love the company

2013 Model S owner (paid by a small portion of my stock gains)
Had fit and finish issues with my 2013 Model S along with paint defects
All issues were fixed by Tesla along with some upgrades for free

Model 3 Reservation day 1
Could have ordered my Model 3 in December 2017
Decided to wait due to fit and finish concerns, but also curious about dual motor range (might get dual motor)
I am not willing to go through fit and finish issues with my second Tesla
Tesla should have it all figured out by now
Disappointed with execution of new products, ability to build a car without defects

I test drove a friends Model 3 in December
That particular Model 3 had body panel alignment issues

Extremely disappointed that there is not a heads up display or even a tiny screen behind the steering wheel with minimal information.
Also Extremely disappointed that the 3rd stalk is not on the Model 3 steering wheel. (perhaps an order option in future model 3s?)

Might get another Model S instead of the Model 3 due to the above statements. Could this be what Tesla intends? They want Model S and X owners to continue buying the S & X and they want a new type of customer for the Model 3?

Still think I will get a Model 3, but thinking about an S... just a thought but it could evolve

Will never own a gas car again. Electric mobility is the best.

Absolutely love Tesla
 

SlicedBr3ad

Member
Feb 25, 2017
922
828
Fl
it does seem like the article and the data from the article is pure speculation. however, internally, i really struggle with the rollout progress and reconciling amount of deliveries ~11k with reservation info in the spreadsheet. if you consider numbers that most non-owners haven't had a change to order, we'd be at a point that we had 10k deliveries to employees and existing owners. if the uptake rate from spreadsheet is correct, there were less than 20k owners (US based) who placed a reservation which does seem low. i'd expect this number to be around 30-60k if we're talking about significant amount of existing owners and employees placing the reservation.

again, these are guesses so take it or leave it. gut feel says the article if full of sh!t but also that our spreadsheet has a significant part of data missing for us to state that the defer rate in spreadsheet is what it actually is.
 

Dexterryu

Member
Nov 14, 2017
107
88
Cleveland, Ohio
It could also just be that they are simply happy with their S/X. I haven't test driven (or even seen a M3 yet) but I did get to test drive an S. It's an amazing car. Going to a 3 is a downgrade in most aspects.
 

daniel

Active Member
May 7, 2009
4,800
3,612
Kihei, HI
It could also just be that they are simply happy with their S/X. I haven't test driven (or even seen a M3 yet) but I did get to test drive an S. It's an amazing car. Going to a 3 is a downgrade in most aspects.

Interestingly, though it might be a minority opinion, a few people have said they like their Model 3 more than their Model S. Depending on your view, the Model 3 is either the baby brother or the smaller, improved version of the Model S. :)
 

Dexterryu

Member
Nov 14, 2017
107
88
Cleveland, Ohio
Interestingly, though it might be a minority opinion, a few people have said they like their Model 3 more than their Model S. Depending on your view, the Model 3 is either the baby brother or the smaller, improved version of the Model S. :)

No argument there. I'm just going my own very limited experience behind the wheel of an S.

The other thing is that as current Tesla owners, their is possibly less "need to have it NOW" than a non-owner. They already have theirs, and without that extra "need it now" they could be pickier with the features/options they really want. Again, this is just a guess as non-owner.
 

daniel

Active Member
May 7, 2009
4,800
3,612
Kihei, HI
No argument there. I'm just going my own very limited experience behind the wheel of an S.

The other thing is that as current Tesla owners, their is possibly less "need to have it NOW" than a non-owner. They already have theirs, and without that extra "need it now" they could be pickier with the features/options they really want. Again, this is just a guess as non-owner.

Driving a Roadster, the long wait for the Model 3 was not as bad as it would have been if I'd been driving a stinker all that time. And until the last minute I didn't know if I'd get the first production, or wait for AWD or P-AWD. But when I finally got the email, I didn't want to wait any longer.

I think a Model S driver would have much less need to "get it now," except that the second car is probably not for the same driver. If you have an S but your wife takes it every day and leaves you with the stinker, you might be in just as much of a hurry to get that Model 3 as any first-timer. (Living alone I don't have that issue, so I'm just speculating.)
 

novox77

1.21 Gigawatts
Nov 25, 2017
1,637
3,543
NH, MA
If you have an S but your wife takes it every day and leaves you with the stinker, you might be in just as much of a hurry to get that Model 3 as any first-timer. (Living alone I don't have that issue, so I'm just speculating.)

This is exactly my situation.
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,311
17,983
USA
Waiting on 2 Model 3's.

AWD model for father in law
PLRAWD after turning in the Volt Lease

140% of existing Tesla owners wanting a Model 3 is probably more accurate than the 30% stated.

:D
 
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Krazaak

Member
Jul 30, 2017
892
995
Charlotte, NC
The article is FUD. It might be news if 70% of owner reservations were being cancelled, but being held isn't news. Some of those owners might be waiting on the SR for a cheaper 2nd car or maybe for a family member, others are probably waiting for a more expensive AWD or performance model. Either way, every $49,000+ model being manufactured now is being sold and will probably continue to be through the majority of this year. It is unfortunate that people who were hoping for the $35,000 model and the full tax credit might miss out, but it seems pretty critical for Tesla's financial health that they sell as many LR Model 3s as possible, lest the people waiting for the SRs may never see them.

I was waiting for the white interior to be offered, since my wife wanted a light interior, but I don't see Tesla making any real changes until they significantly ramp up production. Of course, my luck says they'll start offering white right after ours gets delivered.
 
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MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,311
17,983
USA
No argument there. I'm just going my own very limited experience behind the wheel of an S.

The other thing is that as current Tesla owners, their is possibly less "need to have it NOW" than a non-owner. They already have theirs, and without that extra "need it now" they could be pickier with the features/options they really want. Again, this is just a guess as non-owner.

You are correct and great analytical skills.

Update amongst current owners would be way higher if AWD came out first but it would be a 55-57K or so Model 3.
 
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