Current Tesla owners low take rate on reservations

[Tforme]

Surprisingly, Most Tesla Model S and X Owners Haven't Opted For Model 3

I’m afraid Tesla is about to learn something that most legacy automobile manufacturers have had to learn the hard way.

Lots of initial interest, pre-orders, reservations, etc, frequently do not translate into actual orders and sales. Especially with EV’s. This is still a niche market. It’s unlikely there is anywhere near 400,000 a year actual demand for the M3.

 

[kingjamez]

I think a large percentage of owners are waiting for the 3LRD and P3LRD. This doesn't say anything about the average joe demand. Once more Model 3's get out on the street and "Joe" gets a ride in his friends 3 AND Joe can go order one and get it within a month or two, then and only then will we know the true demand.

-Jim

 

[Pkmmte]

I have a few cousins who put in their reservations on day 1. They're all waiting for the Standard Range battery, apparently.

 

[EinSV]

This is one of the more idiotic analyst reports (at least as summarized in the click-bait article).

Current S/X owners can have many reasons to defer ordering including:

• AWD
• Performance
• White seats
• Standard battery
• Non-PUP interior
• Existing lease hasn't expired
• Waiting for availability of Model 3 lease
• Would prefer not to have early build
• Etc.

If the analyst really wanted to know what percentage of S/X owners with a 3 reservation did not intend to buy one he could have asked them or asked if they had canceled. I wonder why he didn't ask those questions (or apparently did not report the answers).

 

[dwharrison]

In fairness, the analyst DID point out reasons why people might have been waiting. The issue is that the click bait articles have gone right to the "Model 3 isn't selling" perspective.

 

[steven415]

I'm in my 30s. My household makes around 100K+ a year and I own a home.
I think represent the "average" person that stood in line on 3/31.
I don't own many luxury things and i think i live pretty modestly. My current car is an old 1998 acura.

With that being said, we I thought this was going to be a 35K car and with options I would probably spend around 40-45K.
With the 7500 tax credit, it brings it down to a reason price where I am willingly to splurge a little. Yes, you got to live a little.

BUT 2 years later...
The car is actually 55K (with taxes, no EAP), and the fact that the 7.5k tax credit will be reduced by the time the 35,000 car comes out, it has us all looking for other options.

While I probably will get a STILL get a 3, if another car company (specifically honda or toyota) announces an EV like the BOLT or the 3 but at a 30K price tag i am sold. (i specifically did not buy a bolt because I will not buy from GM)

And for those that speak of supercharging network, well guys.... i rather just fly and rent a car with all the $$$ i saved from not buying a 55K car.

While many people that drive teslas make $$$$ and can easily buy a 100K car, there is a market of people like me who just want a really good deal like Elon stated. "Best car for 35000" Well that hasn't come and i'm starting to look elsewhere.

 

[Olle]

Yet another quote from a so called analyst followed by click-bait articles. Model 3 was first and foremost a $35,000 car for the people. Of course many of the people decline the current offer of buying it for $49000. Doesn't mean they won't buy it when they're preferred configuration becomes available.

 

[McRat]

I mentioned this when non-legacy reservationists started getting invites.
There were either very few legacy reservations (understand legacy stretches from Nov 2017 to March 2018), or very few conversions to orders, or both. I believe it was mostly the lack of conversions. Many legacy buyers were purchasing them for family or friends, so the MS/X owners often did want the cars being sold right now. How ever many legacy reservation conversions there were, the number of those who actually wanted the car personally was significantly less.

The long queue for the cars is negatively affecting conversions from what it appears. Which is good news for queue reservationists.

 

[dss33]

FWIW, I'm waiting for white interior and maybe AWD...but most importantly, we're LOVING our Model S so there's little reason to rush into getting one of the first 10,000-ish 3s off the line. We'll continue to enjoy our S, even though we can config whenever we want to, and order the 3 once there are a few more options and they're further into the ramp (meaning better parts, quality, etc.). Plus, this is one more spot that can go to someone who maybe actually needs the car in the mean time, and less time for us paying for two leases/car payments.

 

[McRat]

It is irritating that there are lots of folk who will buy the $56,000 variant today who were line waiters or early on-line reservationists, but must first wait until all the family and friends (and scalpers) to complete their transactions, many of whom don't want the cars themselves.

But that's just the way it is.

 

[N5329K]

I'm in my 30s. My household makes around 100K+ a year and I own a home.
I think represent the "average" person that stood in line on 3/31.
I don't own many luxury things and i think i live pretty modestly. My current car is an old 1998 acura.

With that being said, we I thought this was going to be a 35K car and with options I would probably spend around 40-45K.
With the 7500 tax credit, it brings it down to a reason price where I am willingly to splurge a little. Yes, you got to live a little.

BUT 2 years later...
The car is actually 55K (with taxes, no EAP), and the fact that the 7.5k tax credit will be reduced by the time the 35,000 car comes out, it has us all looking for other options.

While I probably will get a STILL get a 3, if another car company (specifically honda or toyota) announces an EV like the BOLT or the 3 but at a 30K price tag i am sold. (i specifically did not buy a bolt because I will not buy from GM)

And for those that speak of supercharging network, well guys.... i rather just fly and rent a car with all the $$$ i saved from not buying a 55K car.

While many people that drive teslas make $$$$ and can easily buy a 100K car, there is a market of people like me who just want a really good deal like Elon stated. "Best car for 35000" Well that hasn't come and i'm starting to look elsewhere.

Me too. It might take a while, but then, so would a base Model 3.
Robin

 

[SteveG3]

This is one of the more idiotic analyst reports (at least as summarized in the click-bait article).

Current S/X owners have many reasons to defer ordering including:

• AWD
• Performance
• White seats
• Standard battery
• Non-PUP interior
• Existing lease hasn't expired
• Waiting for availability of Model 3 lease
• Would prefer not to have early build
• Etc.

If the analyst really wanted to know what percentage of S/X owners with a 3 reservation did not intend to buy one he could have asked them or asked if they had canceled. I wonder why he didn't ask those questions (or apparently did not report the answers).

Precisely, if they wanted to find out the take rate, all they had to measure was the cancellation rate.

What’s more, the headline and story are from MarketWatch. While it’s not unusual for any media outlet to pump out false narratives about Tesla, those owned by Rupert Murdoch (Wall Street Journal, Barrons and MarketWatch) seem to have nothing to say about Tesla other than these abundant false narratives.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Also, keep in mind that S and X owners already have a pretty nice electric car. There is less incentive to buy a Model 3 than someone who doesn't already own a Tesla. Since those people are only just now getting an opportunity to buy one, I doubt we'll see much drop in demand.

 

[206er]

I'm in my 30s. My household makes around 100K+ a year and I own a home.
I think represent the "average" person that stood in line on 3/31.
I don't own many luxury things and i think i live pretty modestly. My current car is an old 1998 acura.

With that being said, we I thought this was going to be a 35K car and with options I would probably spend around 40-45K.
With the 7500 tax credit, it brings it down to a reason price where I am willingly to splurge a little. Yes, you got to live a little.

BUT 2 years later...
The car is actually 55K (with taxes, no EAP), and the fact that the 7.5k tax credit will be reduced by the time the 35,000 car comes out, it has us all looking for other options.

While I probably will get a STILL get a 3, if another car company (specifically honda or toyota) announces an EV like the BOLT or the 3 but at a 30K price tag i am sold. (i specifically did not buy a bolt because I will not buy from GM)

And for those that speak of supercharging network, well guys.... i rather just fly and rent a car with all the $$$ i saved from not buying a 55K car.

While many people that drive teslas make $$$$ and can easily buy a 100K car, there is a market of people like me who just want a really good deal like Elon stated. "Best car for 35000" Well that hasn't come and i'm starting to look elsewhere.

This is eerily similar to my situation... well, before I cancelled and subsequently developed eyes for the XC40. I highly recommend you find a current Model 3 owner and see if they'd be willing to let you check out their car briefly (even just sit in it for a few mins). Actually getting to spend a few hours with a $49k+ Model 3 and then having my early morning day 1 reservation est. delivery date for whatever the $35k model will end up looking like pushed to early 2019 helped me realize it wasn't worth it.

And I agree about the SC network - we live in a city, prefer to fly, never go on road trips, and can't imagine ever needing to use a SC.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Also, keep in mind that S and X owners already have a pretty nice electric car. There is less incentive to buy a Model 3 than someone who doesn't already own a Tesla. Since those people are only just now getting an opportunity to buy one, I doubt we'll see much drop in demand.

Going back to a rear-wheel drive from a D would certainly be a strong disincentive for me. That self-reporting reservation spreadsheet has AWD as a very high "reason for holding off".

 

[Haxster]

If you compare the base S-75D with the lowest price M3 currently available, there's about a $25K difference (50% more expensive).

On the M3, you get 50 miles more range and a better stereo, but you give up lifetime Supercharging, AWD, air suspension, quicker acceleration, a larger more luxurious car on a more mature (i.e. stable) platform, and maybe half of the $7,500 federal tax credit.

It would be interesting to learn how many M3 reservations are converted to 75D orders.

 

[lirandy]

I'm in my 30s. My household makes around 100K+ a year and I own a home.
I think represent the "average" person that stood in line on 3/31.
I don't own many luxury things and i think i live pretty modestly. My current car is an old 1998 acura.

With that being said, we I thought this was going to be a 35K car and with options I would probably spend around 40-45K.
With the 7500 tax credit, it brings it down to a reason price where I am willingly to splurge a little. Yes, you got to live a little.

BUT 2 years later...
The car is actually 55K (with taxes, no EAP), and the fact that the 7.5k tax credit will be reduced by the time the 35,000 car comes out, it has us all looking for other options.

While I probably will get a STILL get a 3, if another car company (specifically honda or toyota) announces an EV like the BOLT or the 3 but at a 30K price tag i am sold. (i specifically did not buy a bolt because I will not buy from GM)

And for those that speak of supercharging network, well guys.... i rather just fly and rent a car with all the $$$ i saved from not buying a 55K car.

While many people that drive teslas make $$$$ and can easily buy a 100K car, there is a market of people like me who just want a really good deal like Elon stated. "Best car for 35000" Well that hasn't come and i'm starting to look elsewhere.

I am on the same boat and you've spoken out exactly how I feel....

 

[Vad42]

Also, keep in mind that S and X owners already have a pretty nice electric car. There is less incentive to buy a Model 3 than someone who doesn't already own a Tesla. Since those people are only just now getting an opportunity to buy one, I doubt we'll see much drop in demand.

Exactly. I'm in this boat. I reserved Model 3 on Day 1, never having driven or ridden in any Tesla before. Within 3 weeks , I test drove S and I liked it so much that by August I was driving S and loving every minute. I didn't cancel my model 3 order, but I really not sure what to do with it now. We don't need the 2nd Tesla right now, I don't want to replace S with 3. I'm thinking one of my relatives might take it once they have AWD and non-premium options.

 

[brkaus]

I reserved a 3... then purchased an S. I'm keeping my 3 reservation for when our second car (spouses car) dies (and hopefully AWD is available). But, I don't need a 3 immediately anymore.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I'm an extremely late reservation holder, and I admit I was surprised a bit that I could order so soon after production started to ramp up.

Surprised because even now people are able to make money off a barely used Model 3. But, there doesn't seem to be the kind of intensity I expected with that. Apparently current Tesla owners aren't too big on profiting on their position.

I thought about ordering it, but I'm lazy so I didn't bother. Instead I'm in a holding pattern for either the AWD version or a refreshed Model S. A performance Model 3 with a heated steering wheel could get me to order quite quickly.

The Model S finally got a new MCU so that's one less thing that's better in the Model 3. A few more things, and I might find myself with a new Model S to replace my 2015 Model S.

I've mostly been holding off on another Model S because the EAP wasn't there yet, and the FSD was "Uh, let's not get into that".

The other thing that's playing a role is the depreciation of my 2015 70D Model S doesn't seem to be as bad as I once feared. I feared that I'd have to use the resale guarantee (which my car has) to walk away. But, it seems to be better than that so maybe I'll just keep it. There is nothing wrong with it that isn't likely worse in a Model 3 (windnoise, roadnoise, etc). The Model 3 would mostly get me significantly more range (which I'd love), and the AP 2.5 hardware which I'd also like (since I like that feeling like its christmas before a major SW update).

As to Tesla specifically I think they're going to be selling as many cars as they can make for awhile. If they wanted higher conversions rate they'd introduce more options.