ReddykwRun
Member
Mine is RN112801502
Ordered on night of 11/11/19
Single motor but switched to 3 next day.
Reservation # did not change.[/QUO
????????Ordered on night of 11/11/19
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Mine is RN112801502
Ordered on night of 11/11/19
Single motor but switched to 3 next day.
Reservation # did not change.[/QUO
????????Ordered on night of 11/11/19
Your estimates sound reasonable. I think the key for people with larger numbers (like me) is how much they are willing to ramp up the building. Without lots of batteries and serious ramping up, I won’t get one until the next decade. :^)It looks like my order sits in the 70k range, so I am hoping for a late 2022 delivery if they start late 2021 and deliver 10 to 15k in last qtr 2021. Hopefully deliver another 75k in 2022. With close to 500k preorders they have a lot to benefit by ramping up quickly. Amazing demand for this truck.
So under 25% of these 500K reservations will turn into actual sales? That seems low. What are you basing that off of?Reservations do not actually equal production numbers. At one point, the M3 unofficially had nearly 500K pre-orders. I think that Tesla opened up the floodgates before even reaching the 100K production mark. A lot of this is just overall interest in the vehicle, but less than a fourth will actually pony up the funds and order one.
Explicitly forbidden in the reservation contract.could a reservation holder sell his reservation to someone?
Actually, I couldn't find anything about not allowing transfer of reservations... it's just that they won't do it on their side.Explicitly forbidden in the reservation contract.
There's probably some way one could arrange to make the purchase then promptly/soon sell it to another. Tesla isn't going to actually change the name/email/CC on your reservation; you're on the hook for pay up or lose place in line.
So under 25% of these 500K reservations will turn into actual sales? That seems low. What are you basing that off of?
Just a question and i have no idea, but lets let demand 2 years from now far exceeds supply, could a reservation holder sell his reservation to someone? Could Mr I have to have this and can't wait pay a premium over the retail price for your truck with a signed agreement to move up to the early buyer.
I'm almost seems like those early reservations have value whether they plan to buy it or not. Like I said I have no idea but this is a revolutionary vehicle with a huge backlog already.
You sound very knowledgeable and believable. That is great information. ThanksI'm totally basing this off of the M3 reservation euphoria. I had quite a bit of insider information on the stats for the reveal and post production. Literally, there were over 300K reservations on the M3 @ $1K per reservation, which turned into nearly 500K (unofficially at one point). Before Tesla could reach 100K vehicles to be manufactured from the reservations, they had to open the doors to the general public (this is where the 1 in 4 reservation holders actually buy).
Demand being greater than supply will only last a short time as it has done so repeatedly with Tesla. Buying someone else' reservation is strictly forbidden, but there have been a few people that have successfully circumvented this system.
I can't stress enough, the truck euphoria will last a short time, early reservations that lead to about the first few hundred builds will be temporary unicorns.
Reservations do not actually equal production numbers. At one point, the M3 unofficially had nearly 500K pre-orders. I think that Tesla opened up the floodgates before even reaching the 100K production mark. A lot of this is just overall interest in the vehicle, but less than a fourth will actually pony up the funds and order one.
They opened the orders up because they were only building one very specific configuration for 14 months and 60,000 vehicles. Once the AWD and performance versions came around they were back to a waiting list.
Not entirely accurate. The M3 production began in July (2017; LR), with the next version beginning production in the following July (2018). There was never a reported wait-list, or backlog for the AWD/P versions of the vehicle. Those that had already made a reservation were the majority of stakeholders waiting for those variants. Once those were exhausted, Tesla held off production of the SR edition until early 2019. This is when they opened the flood gates to all others, who were already reportedly waiting on the SR/cheaper option Tesla.
As I've stated before, reservations for the Cybertruck are highly unlikely to achieve more than what they've generated in the past, which is a 1 in 4 production (speculation on my part). As a current reservation holder of the Cybertruck, I'll certainly be one of the reservation holders that actually follow through with the reservation hold.
We can't know what they will do, but we can guess based on what they have done in the past. Still a guess.I am choosing to know if Tesla has said they will start with the Tri-motor.
Thanks so much. I really appreciate your response.We can't know what they will do, but we can guess based on what they have done in the past. Still a guess.
Our reservations are not real orders, so which will be made first is not based on reservation number. Once we can convert our reservations into orders, THEN the model with the highest orders MAY come first.
Also, if Giga Texas happens (IF), and it is where Cybertruck will be built (another big IF), that COULD affect which region is first.
In other words, nobody knows what or where will be built/delivered first. Sorry.
RN11279XXXX Night of.
Same here, mine is a 112747 and I ordered right when it went live on the site, I sat at my desk refreshing the damn page constantly every few seconds while watching the debut.I doubt it, unless its an employee order somehow. I have RN112746XXX and also ordered pretty quickly at launch (when the website was crashing).