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Delay in model X launch?
- Thread starter Eds
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- Model X model x launch
Perhaps, but the old prototype computer renderings certainly got the old pneumatics right in detail:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-q6hVcXii0o4/VZa5xKWbf2I/AAAAAAAABO0/fcISy3xtL0U/s1600/Tesla-Model-X-white.jpg
NigelM
Recovering Member
Given that Eds basic assertion was NO cars at all in Q3, and less than 100 cars this year, it looks like he's about to be proven spectacularly wrong. Everything he suggested after that big assertion was designed to underline his point.
You said before you'd had private conversations with him, but isn't it time to admit your friend's big claim was way off base?
not so fast IMO. delivering a few (dunno how many) a day before q3 ends doesnt blow what he said out the water. if anything, it could look like tesla is squeezing a few out to save face.
NigelM
Recovering Member
It's kind of a binary choice isn't it? He said zero would be delivered, but a delivery date has now been set.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
It's kind of a binary choice isn't it? He said zero would be delivered, but a delivery date has now been set.
As you previously requested, I won't requote the post, but he said something like 100 Model X by the end of the year. I think that's unrealistic (as in, I can't see Tesla delivering less than 800), but there was another quote you posted where he said something like very few or none in Q3 IIRC? I dunno, if he was working on info from back when that all went down, what he had could have very well pointed to not making Q3 deliveries, and IMO Tesla doing a few deliveries RIGHT BEFORE the end of Q3 tells me it was likely very close to not happening.
So, in "binary" form, would his claim of none be wrong? Yes. But that still doesn't mean he lied IMO. It means he used data to form an opinion that (just barely) turned out to be wrong. As has been discussed previously, if he had just posted facts without his own speculation and slant, things may have been clearer. Doesn't mean he had 0 valid info and was full of it though. THAT, to me, is NOT binary.
I think the two things most of us would concerned about, with regard to Eds, are probably these (paraphrased):
1. Early Model X build quality will be severely compromised due to hand building
2. Very few Model X vehicles delivered in 2015 (meaning an effective delay, even if the first deliveries are timely).
I was an early skeptic with regards to the validity of his claims, but I have come around to believing there was some background of truth to them with a decent amount of extrapolation. My feeling is that #1 is extrapolation - there's no way he'd have any way of estimating the build quality. Hand built doesn't always equal low quality - just ask your local hipsters. #2 may have more validity but only time will tell. It'll be disappointing if so.
I don't think we can flat out dismiss that he was wrong. Binary is probably an unfair assessment of a number of claims.
I haven't weighed in much on him, but wanted to bring up his name again so I could get dsm363 to say
1. Early Model X build quality will be severely compromised due to hand building
2. Very few Model X vehicles delivered in 2015 (meaning an effective delay, even if the first deliveries are timely).
I was an early skeptic with regards to the validity of his claims, but I have come around to believing there was some background of truth to them with a decent amount of extrapolation. My feeling is that #1 is extrapolation - there's no way he'd have any way of estimating the build quality. Hand built doesn't always equal low quality - just ask your local hipsters. #2 may have more validity but only time will tell. It'll be disappointing if so.
I don't think we can flat out dismiss that he was wrong. Binary is probably an unfair assessment of a number of claims.
I haven't weighed in much on him, but wanted to bring up his name again so I could get dsm363 to say
again. For whatever reason, that has continued to crack me up any time the name Eds is mentioned.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Umm, I never requested that.
You're the Mod here and free to publish whatever you want.:wink:I didn't say he "lied" either.
I'm probably shouldn't be posting this, but...
I agree with AnOutsider and want to further his argument by saying that Tesla (for some reason) is pulling out all the stops to make this latest Q3 deadline they self-imposed. I won't go into speculating why, but one could make the technical argument that these few (less than 30?) units being delivered are not "real" production models since they're likely built with custom Tesla parts (rather than mass produced parts from suppliers) and partially hand-built (not that it's a bad thing). Sure, anyone can build a couple of cars by hand, but Elon said that high quality assembly line production is hard.
Tesla is spinning this to make it seem like they've successfully met their deadline (although Elon has always tried to tell people that the ramp-up is more important). But this is what they need to do and everyone company does this, especially Apple.
Was Eds right about Q3? Probably. Will Eds be right about 2015? I very much doubt it.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Whoever he, she or they (plural) were, the Eds account has faded away into the fog. There is obviously no delay in delivering the Model X. The sooner this thread gets closed, the sooner we won't have to see it in the list of "new posts" and think "oh, no, there must be some new update in the delay discussion" etc. etc.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Apologies for prolonging this thread, but I'm amazed at the benefit of the doubt people are giving to Eds here.
It went from "let's hear him out, he might be right" to "some things he said aren't right but there are a few things that could still be true" to "well he was just barely wrong, we can't dismiss him." At the same time, people criticize Tesla for meeting their deadline in a not impressive enough fashion?
The only thing that gave Eds credibility was when the OP said that it had been "deleted at Tesla's request" - and this has since been changed to "at user request." That was extremely misleading and I'm still not clear what that was really about.
It went from "let's hear him out, he might be right" to "some things he said aren't right but there are a few things that could still be true" to "well he was just barely wrong, we can't dismiss him." At the same time, people criticize Tesla for meeting their deadline in a not impressive enough fashion?
The only thing that gave Eds credibility was when the OP said that it had been "deleted at Tesla's request" - and this has since been changed to "at user request." That was extremely misleading and I'm still not clear what that was really about.
NigelM
Recovering Member
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