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Disagree with Elon, 400 EPA miles is NOT enough

mxnym

Active Member
Mar 9, 2018
1,153
534
Bloomington, IN
When I bought my 2017 X, I installed a 50A outlet in my in-law's garage some 50 miles away in order to allow for road trips to anywhere I would want to go. Without that outlet, I couldn't reach the first supercharger on almost any road trip I could think to plan. If that has changed in 2021, it has only changed if I can choose a different route. However, more likley than not, I wouldn't be taking a road trip without dropping off some number of grandchildren, so I don't have the alternative route option. Would more charging infrastructure help me? Well, it could.

I also happen to know several people that drive 300-400 miles straight between restroom breaks (presumably well in excess of 75 MPH) and only stop long enough for the restroom and fuel. As insane as that seems to most people, they can't do what they do now with an EV. I'm happy to point out that they can rent an ICE for those (usually rare) trips and put less miles on their EV, but if they don't want to do that (most don't), the EV market simply doesn't serve them. I've always believed that a 600 mile EPA range option would be a reasonable target, and I haven't seen anything yet that would change my opinion on that. Personally, I've found that I prefer the more relaxed drive with more charging stops in spite of the reduced amount of time at my destination, but I don't expect most people to come to that same conclusion. TBH, even if we could get 600 mile EPA range, charging speeds would need to increase quite a bit to satiate true ICE road warriors, and that's probably the best argument against the higher range vehicles for the now.

I also happen to sometimes plan a "daily drive"(as in lots of driving during a given day, not as in lots of driving every day) that can't be completed without charging, and I know people who drive more than that on a given day more often than I do. When you've got that much to do in a day, charging stops aren't necessarily an option (much less a convenient one when all charging stations may be in use where charging is available), but I should imagine that use case is even more rare. Doesn't matter too much in the near-term, plenty of ICE vehicles still been made and plenty more already on the road.
 
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ElectricIAC

Devil’s Advocate
Dec 31, 2019
2,533
1,665
DFW
I live in Finland and we have our share of long and cold winters. My drive to our countryside house is 460km (290 miles) and the 2020 ’371 epa mile’ X does it without stopping during the summer. In mid winter I need 10-20 minute (150kW stall) charge on the way. For me the winter effectively changes nothing, i’ll stop on the way anyway.
What are the speed limits?
 

ElectricIAC

Devil’s Advocate
Dec 31, 2019
2,533
1,665
DFW
When I bought my 2017 X, I installed a 50A outlet in my in-law's garage some 50 miles away in order to allow for road trips to anywhere I would want to go. Without that outlet, I couldn't reach the first supercharger on almost any road trip I could think to plan. If that has changed in 2021, it has only changed if I can choose a different route. However, more likley than not, I wouldn't be taking a road trip without dropping off some number of grandchildren, so I don't have the alternative route option. Would more charging infrastructure help me? Well, it could.

I also happen to know several people that drive 300-400 miles straight between restroom breaks (presumably well in excess of 75 MPH) and only stop long enough for the restroom and fuel. As insane as that seems to most people, they can't do what they do now with an EV. I'm happy to point out that they can rent an ICE for those (usually rare) trips and put less miles on their EV, but if they don't want to do that (most don't), the EV market simply doesn't serve them. I've always believed that a 600 mile EPA range option would be a reasonable target, and I haven't seen anything yet that would change my opinion on that. Personally, I've found that I prefer the more relaxed drive with more charging stops in spite of the reduced amount of time at my destination, but I don't expect most people to come to that same conclusion. TBH, even if we could get 600 mile EPA range, charging speeds would need to increase quite a bit to satiate true ICE road warriors, and that's probably the best argument against the higher range vehicles for the now.

I also happen to sometimes plan a "daily drive"(as in lots of driving during a given day, not as in lots of driving every day) that can't be completed without charging, and I know people who drive more than that on a given day more often than I do. When you've got that much to do in a day, charging stops aren't necessarily an option (much less a convenient one when all charging stations may be in use where charging is available), but I should imagine that use case is even more rare. Doesn't matter too much in the near-term, plenty of ICE vehicles still been made and plenty more already on the road.
I've tested our own MX Standard Range (Raven 75D) and found that the rated numbers are possible using a mixed cycle with in ideal conditions.

1628526585599.png



Straight highway at typical highway speeds however looks a bit different..

1628527968030.png
 

henderrj

Active Member
Jun 16, 2014
1,032
881
Graham, WA, United States
I live in the Pacific Northwest so rarely see snow. My question is does slowing down increase the range in the winter, with snow on the roads, as much as it does in the summer? I honestly don't know what snow does to the range when you are going slow.
 
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mxnym

Active Member
Mar 9, 2018
1,153
534
Bloomington, IN
I've tested our own MX Standard Range (Raven 75D) and found that the rated numbers are possible using a mixed cycle with in ideal conditions
On my daily commute, with my driving style, my 2017 100D generally does better than EPA rating, especially in Spring and Fall. However, when I had to attend funerals in southern Indiana in January and February of 2018 or 2019 the EPA numbers went right out the window, and the number of stops necessary, distance necessary, and a very lengthy procession in one case meant that I had to go far out of my way to find A/C charging and miss hours with my family. Not much has changed in the area since then, and it isn't mountains or sand dunes like some of Colorado and the Great Lakes peninsulas. I've also found that a round trip from the nearest supercharger to my family in central Texas is iffy to begin with, meaning spending days visiting them on a road trip would require extra consideration. Central Texas is hardly the middle of nowhere. The fact of the matter is that significant improvements are still necessary in order for EVs to make sense for more people than most fans care to admit.
 
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Skotty

2014 S P85 | 2020 3 P19"
Jun 27, 2013
2,528
1,963
Kansas City, MO
I agree that range is still a problem. As I consider my next Tesla down the road, range is still the top consideration. More superchargers would be nice, but more range would be better. Plus the batteries charge faster at superchargers when low on charge, so the more range it has, the faster it's going to charge when you do use the superchargers (assuming you do it right, and charge from low to intermediate level at stops).

I also thought the top Cybertruck option was most appealing not because of performance or towing, but because of range. But what I really want is a 500+ mile battery in a Model 3.
 

roblab

Active Member
Jul 15, 2008
3,804
3,285
Angwin (Napa Valley) CA
Exactly. My car has 400 miles of range. It is extremely rare that I ever need to drive more than 250 miles in a jump, about 3 hours of driving, without wanting to stop for a bathroom break or a snack. With the 400 mile range that jumps to 5 hours.

I can't understand why people cannot stop and take a break, plug in, walk around a bit, get some coffee. What is the deal? "MUST HAVE 500 miles of range!!!" Come on. You'll never use it but once or twice, and you pay a lot extra for that big battery, which is the biggest cost of building an EV. When visiting Aunt Priscilla over in Hamestown, you can't stop on the way? You always did when you had a gas car.
 

roblab

Active Member
Jul 15, 2008
3,804
3,285
Angwin (Napa Valley) CA
I agree that range is still a problem. As I consider my next Tesla down the road, range is still the top consideration. More superchargers would be nice, but more range would be better. Plus the batteries charge faster at superchargers when low on charge, so the more range it has, the faster it's going to charge when you do use the superchargers (assuming you do it right, and charge from low to intermediate level at stops).

I also thought the top Cybertruck option was most appealing not because of performance or towing, but because of range. But what I really want is a 500+ mile battery in a Model 3.
And why? To save ten minutes on a long trip? You do NOT need a 500+ mile range, no matter what you "want". I highly doubt that your gas cars give you that amount of range, either. I suppose you drive 400 miles now and have to stop for fifteen minutes to top up, and that time really grates on you. What did you do when you went to fill up? You sat in your car while the tank filled. Or you went into the station and looked at the candy bars.

There are very few people who need to sit in their cars for six hours at a stretch, not even taking into account the chance of DVTs sitting so long in one position.
 

ElectricIAC

Devil’s Advocate
Dec 31, 2019
2,533
1,665
DFW
Exactly. My car has 400 miles of range. It is extremely rare that I ever need to drive more than 250 miles in a jump, about 3 hours of driving, without wanting to stop for a bathroom break or a snack. With the 400 mile range that jumps to 5 hours.

I can't understand why people cannot stop and take a break, plug in, walk around a bit, get some coffee. What is the deal? "MUST HAVE 500 miles of range!!!" Come on. You'll never use it but once or twice, and you pay a lot extra for that big battery, which is the biggest cost of building an EV. When visiting Aunt Priscilla over in Hamestown, you can't stop on the way? You always did when you had a gas car.
It’s not about sitting in the car for 5-6 hours at a time. It’s about leveraging fastest part of the charging curve so you can cover 2.5-3hr sectors with a quick 20 minute top up.
 

Skotty

2014 S P85 | 2020 3 P19"
Jun 27, 2013
2,528
1,963
Kansas City, MO
And why? To save ten minutes on a long trip? You do NOT need a 500+ mile range, no matter what you "want". I highly doubt that your gas cars give you that amount of range, either. I suppose you drive 400 miles now and have to stop for fifteen minutes to top up, and that time really grates on you. What did you do when you went to fill up? You sat in your car while the tank filled. Or you went into the station and looked at the candy bars.

There are very few people who need to sit in their cars for six hours at a stretch, not even taking into account the chance of DVTs sitting so long in one position.
Because 500+ miles in a Tesla will realistically give 300+ miles. I really only "need" 300 winter miles. I think if I had a Tesla rated at 500+, 300 in the winter would actually be doable.

This isn't just think speak either. I've done multiple long trips across the country in both my S P85, my 3 P19", and various gas cars, and my conclusion is that the range on the Teslas is not nearly enough to be competitive for trips (overall the Tesla is better; but comparing long trips only, gas is still a better experience compared to the 300 rated mile Teslas). I know the new long range S is a fair amount better on range, but that kind of range should be an option on the 3 as well, and it's not.

Also, why shouldn't we expect more from a Tesla? They can go 0-60 in 2 seconds now, better than million dollar hypercars. They are tops in safety. They are tops in so many areas. They are mediocre at best on range. Time to up the range again. I would say 100 kWh for the 3 and Y, 120 to 130 kWh for the S and X.
 
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ElectricIAC

Devil’s Advocate
Dec 31, 2019
2,533
1,665
DFW
Because 500+ miles in a Tesla will realistically give 300+ miles. I really only "need" 300 winter miles. I think if I had a Tesla rated at 500+, 300 in the winter would actually be doable.

This isn't just think speak either. I've done multiple long trips across the country in both my S P85, my 3 P19", and various gas cars, and my conclusion is that the range on the Teslas is not nearly enough to be competitive for trips (overall the Tesla is better; but comparing long trips only, gas is still a better experience compared to the 300 rated mile Teslas). I know the new long range S is a fair amount better on range, but that kind of range should be an option on the 3 as well, and it's not.

Also, why shouldn't we expect more from a Tesla? They can go 0-60 in 2 seconds now, better than million dollar hypercars. They are tops in safety. They are tops in so many areas. They are mediocre at best on range. Time to up the range again. I would say 100 kWh for the 3 and Y, 120 to 130 kWh for the S and X.
Tesla (marketing) is dishonest about range in less than ideal conditions.

How to say it without saying it. :D
 
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Harvey Danger

Member
Mar 2, 2021
364
258
The Pacific Northwest
There's a specific freedom I miss, taking side trips or changing destinations on a whim. And there's no electric equivalent to the five gallon gas can if you want to explore a remote area.

If all you do is stay near home or take laps up and down interstates, yes, problem solved. Plenty of range. For those that want to go explore without knowing exactly where they are going, well, more range is better.
 

DelPhonic1

Member
Mar 20, 2020
220
239
Burbank
500 mile range should give me an actual 300 or so mile range the way I prefer to drive in hilly and sometimes snowy California and it still may not be enough to feel comfortable for me. I'm a road warrior, not a road leisure-er.
Then once at my destination I'm not locked into finding a charger, and can run around and explore a bit. Without that extra bit of real world range, charging can become more tedious with a packed schedule. Why stay so tedious?
 

Richbot

Member
Oct 16, 2020
569
539
STL
If you go 60mph in a Long Range Plus it is a 400-mile vehicle, assuming you don't get hit by a semi. If you go 80, it's a 280-mile vehicle. If you go 80 when it's 15 degrees out, it's a 240 mile vehicle. Not the end of the world obviously, as there are plenty of EV's that can't do 240 miles on their best day.

But big batteries rock and I wish it was bigger. Not because I want to drive for longer, but because I like not thinking about range on road trips and I like not thinking about range when the weather gets bad. So far, the humans have been the limiting factor on our road trips much more than the car. I'd rather do 85 and make up 35 minutes, and charge for an extra 5 minutes every 200 miles on the interstate, and if I'm not on the interstate, doing 45-60mph on side-roads and such, I have a car that is consuming ~250 wh/mi.

Just don't leave that last supercharger without topping up, heh.

If you want to Mark Watney it, there's plenty of room for about 1500w of solar panels, controller, inverter, and a lightweight rack system to charge during the day. There's your gas can. You migth get back as many as 30 miles of range per sunny day in the summertime, so long as you don't use the car to keep cool! lol

I don't think you'll see Tesla do any batteries above 100kwh in the S and X, not in the first half of this decade anyway, not unless the new cells completely revolutionize the capabilities of EV's as we know them. They need to reduce their cell count per car, not increase it.
 
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FirstInTown

Member
Sep 22, 2020
201
265
Northern Wi
Exactly. My car has 400 miles of range. It is extremely rare that I ever need to drive more than 250 miles in a jump, about 3 hours of driving, without wanting to stop for a bathroom break or a snack. With the 400 mile range that jumps to 5 hours.
When does 400 not equal 400? When it is anything other than ideal, slowish conditions in a Tesla. That's the problem. Winter is less. Going interstate speeds is less. 1 year old battery is 2.5% less. Snow on the ground is less. So 400 is about THE Best people will see and it isn't realistist.

Go cold, snowy and 7 over the limit and looking at 30 to 40% loss, so 400 is down in the low 200 miles. Not enough. People appear to hope a 500 mile Cyber Truck is a Real 300 and that would be good.
 

JimBob 909

Little Red Raven
Sep 16, 2019
183
147
Southern California
I understand that the OP wants to drive 75mph, in the winter. BUT...what would driving 65 do to his range? I have a MX ordered, but do not know the effect of speed to range on the X. I do know on my S. Yes, Northern Wisconsin does not have a lot of superchargers, but if you have a range constraint such as cold weather and heater use, it seems slowing down would help.
 
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Richbot

Member
Oct 16, 2020
569
539
STL
75 in the winter was still good for 300 miles of 100-0% range on my LR+, *with preconditioning*. ~330 wh/mi in the cold; so an easy 200 between stops. If I didn't pre-con, especially sub-20 degrees, it was much, much worse for the first 15 miles of any drive. The battery heaters just absolutely gobble it up at those temps, to the tune of circa 120wh/mi on my car. It was not uncommon to see 450 wh/mi on 75mph commutes where the car started cold. If you're starting from dead-cold without charging the car, and expecting to drive it 300 miles, you're gonna have a bad time. But if you have it plugged into a wall outlet the night before, and schedule departure...no bigs. Once the battery is warm, it's not *that* bad. And the faster you drive the more heat you generate.

Obviously rolling resistance from snow is going to eat a lot of that too, so, conditions-dependent. But cold and dry it's not a huge deal. IT's that "dry" part in places where it is almost never dry (either snowpacked or slush or some combo, all winter) that I think really catches people out.

The Long Range/Plaid will fix a lot of the first paragraph, but probably not much of the second paragraph. It will still take x number of watts to push through a given amount of snow no matter how good the new heat pump system is at retaining and recovering heat
 
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DCGOO

Active Member
Nov 24, 2015
1,708
1,000
Indianapolis, IN
I don't think you'll see Tesla do any batteries above 100kwh in the S and X, not in the first half of this decade anyway, not unless the new cells completely revolutionize the capabilities of EV's as we know them. They need to reduce their cell count per car, not increase it.

I think that is why everybody is so high on the 4680. The key thing is the weight of the packs vs capacity. The total amount of steel we are now carrying around with over seven thousand 1865s, will drop significantly with only a few hundred 4680. Also, a factor is the competition. As the other manufacturers increase their battery capacity/range, I suspect Tesla will attempt to stay in the lead, but not by too much. I would not expect Tesla to push to 500 miles until another manufacturer gets close to 400 with a compelling product. There is no doubt in my mind Tesla could do that today if it was necessary. But my belief is they are holding back for now (canceling the 520 mile Plaid+ for example).
 
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