I’ve been really watching inventory, and there was an October bump in inventory, but it seems that the inventory is now dropping a bit. It seems that there’s a small bump and fall in overall inventory at the beginning of each quarter followed by a much larger bump the second two months, the second month of each quarter seeing a larger rise in the inventory, and the third month of each quarter being a sharp reduction in inventory. Clearly the MS and MXinventory is getting knocked down from the 3000-3500 car inventory that just seems way too high for cars with no government incentives. That may be part of why there were such huge price drops for those two vehicles. Perhaps clearing out the inventory will be wise so they have the ability to control the supply and demand more. It sounds like the Highland refresh of the M3 will likely be a cost-cutting design change (no stalks) while providing a fresher look that enables them to raise the price a bit (increase that dwindling profit margin). Clearly they need to ramp up the production of the Cybertruck and fulfill the orders they have for the truck already, but they need to make sure the people who plunked down the $100 deposit don’t just say, “no thanks. I will buy an F150 or Rivian instead.” It does sound like the Cybertruck may sink Tesla. It was cool several years ago when they announced it and there were not other trucks on the market. Personally, I think the sharp edges are not real likely to survive. Fins and Sharp Edges were removed from vehicles for safety reasons. First time someone hits their head on one of those sharp corners, Tesla is going to be sued. Tesla would be smart to bust out the angle-grinder and soften some of those edges. Does that affect orders or deliveries? Probably not. Do deliveries even help them at this point? Probably not because every Cybertruck delivered is another loss for the next year or so. Will they EVER make money on the Cybertruck? Possibly not. What does that mean for pricing of the other vehicles? Shares sure are sinking.
Rivian is building what people want, SUVs and pickup trucks. The other big makers are doing the same. They find the EVs with their ICE counterparts like Tesla is trying to do with the Cybertruck. It’s just too bad for Tesla that the hype over the Cybertruck is dead before it even hits the market.
Did Ford patent the concept of powering your house with your vehicle battery? Why hasn’t Tesla offered this? I believe that’s a real selling point for the F150 for people with big bucks.
Knowing the M3 and MY need to fund these other projects, I’m not expecting the price to fall too far. I DO expect Tesla to somehow virtually clear out the inventory of M3 before the end of the year though. They might not have to discount it since the government money for it is going to be cut in half. The MY will continue to be more expesive. At one point it seemed the MY RWD was supposed to be only $3750 more than the M3. I don’t expect that difference to ever get any smaller than that number. So I’m going to guess that $40k and $45k are going to be the targets for the M3 and MY cheapest available going forward. That’s just my opinion. I do hope to get a M3 significantly cheaper than that before the end of the year though. Time will tell.
Since I’ve only been learning for about a month, I don’t know much. I can guess though.
