Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

[Mike728]

The Y LR and P use identical battery packs. If one qualifies, both will.

All I know on the subject is from internet sources. I know how that sounds , but do you have any sources that state differently?

LINK

 

[ucmndd]

All I know on the subject is from internet sources. I know how that sounds , but do you have any sources that state differently?

Hard to make any meaningful judgment when they don’t list their sources, methodology, or anything else useful to determine how they arrived at their conclusion.

My speculation: Sloppy reporting. They saw the news posted by Tesla that 3RWD and LR would lose the credit after 12/31 and extrapolated that conclusion to the Y.

Unlike the Y, the 3LR and 3P have different battery packs (the former with cells sourced from China). That is not the case for the YLR and YP, which have identical packs. Since the pack itself and the minerals within are the determinant for the tax credit, there’s no possible way for one to get the credit while the other doesn’t (provided they both stay below the MSRP cap of $80k).

 

[Mike728]

Hard to make any meaningful judgment when they don’t list their sources, methodology, or anything else useful to determine how they arrived at their conclusion.

My speculation: Sloppy reporting. They saw the news posted by Tesla that 3RWD and LR would lose the credit after 12/31 and extrapolated that conclusion to the Y.

Unlike the Y, the 3LR and 3P have different battery packs (the former with cells sourced from China). That is not the case for the YLR and YP, which have identical packs. Since the pack itself and the minerals within are the determinant for the tax credit, there’s no possible way for one to get the credit while the other doesn’t (provided they both stay below the MSRP cap of $80k).

I can find a dozen or so articles all claiming the same. I just posted the first one that came up today. Also, Tesla has already confirmed the 3 won't, but the 3P will qualify. Aren't those supposed to be using the same batteries?

Edit: I see you did claim that, but their both NCA 2170's.

 

[ucmndd]

I can find a dozen or so articles all claiming the same.

All pointing back to the same dubious source no doubt.

Edit: I see you did claim that, but they’re both NCA 2170's.

No, they aren’t actually. The 3LR uses Chinese NCM 2170 cells sourced from LG. I’m not “claiming” this, it’s just true.

Also relevant: the ordering page for the model three specifically states the discontinuation of the tax credit for the long range and rear wheel drive. No such disclaimer is made for the model Y.

 

[Watts_Up]

When will the Model 3 SR and LR Highland be build in US?

And when the Model 3 Performance Highland will be announced?

 

[maksimfa]

The Y LR and P use identical battery packs. If one qualifies, both will.

The recently released IRS guidelines will let people take the full $7500 POS credit in 2024, even if they don’t have enough tax liability to cover it. Upper income limit still applies.
Treasury Department aims to make it easier to get $7,500 EV tax credit in 2024


The packs with Chinese cells in the 3 RWD and LR are certainly going to lose at least half and likely all of the credit. That’s pretty much a done deal at this point. MY with Panasonic 2170 cells are a bit more of an open question based on the minerals requirements - will either be the full $7500 or $3750.

Thanks for posting that link. I saw from accounting sites but you got a great mainstream one. Thanks for the backup. =)

 

[maksimfa]

Hypothetically yes, however:

1) Tesla will do absolutely everything in their power to get you to take delivery before 12/31 and will very likely exercise their right to cancel your order and keep your $250 if you don’t, selling the inventory car to someone else willing to take delivery before the end of the year. You have ~72 hours from the time they notify you the car is ready to take delivery.

2) I very much doubt Tesla will be ready to start processing POS credits on 1/1/2024. This is all brand new and gonna take some time. Tesla isn’t gonna let you hold on to an inventory car for that long.

Good point, perhaps will wait another week and order...
On the 2170... The tesla rep in the store is actually the one who said that... so who knows.

On the Point of sale, another rep told me that they did have the info apparently to process them Jan 1st...

 

[MacO512]

The Y LR and P use identical battery packs. If one qualifies, both will.

The recently released IRS guidelines will let people take the full $7500 POS credit in 2024, even if they don’t have enough tax liability to cover it. Upper income limit still applies.
Treasury Department aims to make it easier to get $7,500 EV tax credit in 2024


The packs with Chinese cells in the 3 RWD and LR are certainly going to lose at least half and likely all of the credit. That’s pretty much a done deal at this point. MY with Panasonic 2170 cells are a bit more of an open question based on the minerals requirements - will either be the full $7500 or $3750.

Good link, hadn't seen that is a proposed rule. Yes buyers below 2023 tax liability should hold out until 2024.

 

[pipestem]

Meanwhile, Model Y LR prices have crept up by $500 in the last week here in Raleighwood. No idea if this trend will last another 10 minutes or not. It's getting tight for end of year pickups.

 

[EatsShoots]

We already have a MYLR and were planning on getting a second car in the coming months but the value of the M3RWD right now was kind of hard to turn down. I ordered right before the announcement that it was losing the fed credits were disappearing next year and inventory discounts quickly evaporated in my area.

Picking up on Saturday for ($35,090 - $7500 federal - $5000 CO - 1000 cyber) $21,590. Even with depreciation, I think I could still sell it in a few years if the Juniper MY is compelling enough for a minimal loss.

OMG your state credit is $5k.

Tesla is not doing itself any favors by refusing to advertise. These things are the best held secret in new cars today period.

 

[ColMan]

I've been seeing a lot more Y's and 3's in CO lately with temp plates. And yes, if they were to advertise, I'm sure they could sell a lot more than they have been here. The extra $5k off increases to $7.5k in '24 for EV's at $35k and under. Just need that $25k model 2. Not going to happen any time soon, but one can dream of a $10k Tesla after rebates.

 

[Hiline]

I've been seeing a lot more Y's and 3's in CO lately with temp plates. And yes, if they were to advertise, I'm sure they could sell a lot more than they have been here. The extra $5k off increases to $7.5k in '24 for EV's at $35k and under. Just need that $25k model 2. Not going to happen any time soon, but one can dream of a $10k Tesla after rebates.

By the time we have a $25k Tesla, all credits will likely have been phased out though. The credits are designed to incent manufacturers to scale production. Once they achieve economy of scale, they can produce EVs at lower cost and sell them at lower price and thus the credits will no longer be needed.

 

[Dubalina]

Hypothetically yes, however:

1) Tesla will do absolutely everything in their power to get you to take delivery before 12/31 and will very likely exercise their right to cancel your order and keep your $250 if you don’t, selling the inventory car to someone else willing to take delivery before the end of the year. You have ~72 hours from the time they notify you the car is ready to take delivery.

2) I very much doubt Tesla will be ready to start processing POS credits on 1/1/2024. This is all brand new and gonna take some time. Tesla isn’t gonna let you hold on to an inventory car for that long.

I just ordered a MYLR and was only given ONE day extra to pick up beyond the 72hrs and only because I complained it is raining this week so can't we pick up on the weekend. Pick up is 12/22 now so I can see why they are so pushy with inventory, they gotta get rid of them, but I doubt they are having trouble with the one I ordered as its the lowest price for a MYLR in the area. They seem to drop 2-3 MYLR's down to $45.5k each day in SoCal and $46.5K for white or blue.

 

[TimeHater24]

Was just able to score a white 23 MYLR in inventory for 46,490 here in CO, will be getting the full 7500 + the state 5000. Can't be happier !

 

[PNWLeccy]

Was just able to score a white 23 MYLR in inventory for 46,490 here in CO, will be getting the full 7500 + the state 5000. Can't be happier !

Nice snag. We just picked up a M3 RWD because it was such a good value at $21,590 after all incentives($35,090 inv., $7.5k fed, $5k state, $1k cybertruck).

Now I'm wondering if we shouldn't just get a new MYLR as well! If I can grab one at $45,560 (the lowest I've seen in inventory) I could get it for $33,060 after fed and state incentives. Got a few trade-in offers on our 22' MYLR for ~$35k. The only thing I would be giving up is my 1.24% loan so I'd probably want to pay cash. When I mentioned this to my wife she thought I was unhinged but once I explained that we could essentially get the same car with ~2 years more warranty and better suspension she said.... maybe. haha

 

[Hiline]

Nice snag. We just picked up a M3 RWD because it was such a good value at $21,590 after all incentives($35,090 inv., $7.5k fed, $5k state, $1k cybertruck).

Now I'm wondering if we shouldn't just get a new MYLR as well! If I can grab one at $45,560 (the lowest I've seen in inventory) I could get it for $33,060 after fed and state incentives. Got a few trade-in offers on our 22' MYLR for ~$35k. The only thing I would be giving up is my 1.24% loan so I'd probably want to pay cash. When I mentioned this to my wife she thought I was unhinged but once I explained that we could essentially get the same car with ~2 years more warranty and better suspension she said.... maybe. haha

Keep in mind that the new car also comes with sales tax and destination charge. I believe the final price for your new MYLR would be around ($45,560+$250+$1,390)*1.0772 - $12,500 = $38,300, excluding registration. With registration, your final price would be close to $39,000. So you'd need to pay $4k for 2 years of warranty, better suspension, and lack of USS. I wouldn't do it because of the cheap loan on the current car, but it may be worth it to you

 

[PNWLeccy]

Keep in mind that the new car also comes with sales tax and destination charge. I believe the final price for your new MYLR would be around ($45,560+$250+$1,390)*1.0772 - $12,500 = $38,300, excluding registration. With registration, your final price would be close to $39,000. So you'd need to pay $4k for 2 years of warranty, better suspension, and lack of USS. I wouldn't do it because of the cheap loan on the current car, but it may be worth it to you

Yea, it's tempting but I know it would cost us a bit to do it (albeit less than it usually would after 2 years of ownership). I probably won't go through with it and wait until next year to see what happens re: if MYLR keeps $7.5k at PoS and decide then. The loss of USS is the only thing I might miss out on but I've got some persistent rattles that bother me that the new M3 doesn't and I enjoy the car so much more when it's quiet.

 

[Hiline]

Yea, it's tempting but I know it would cost us a bit to do it (albeit less than it usually would after 2 years of ownership). I probably won't go through with it and wait until next year to see what happens re: if MYLR keeps $7.5k at PoS and decide then. The loss of USS is the only thing I might miss out on but I've got some persistent rattles that bother me that the new M3 doesn't and I enjoy the car so much more when it's quiet.

The credit can only get worse - it's never going to be better. If you buy a new Model Y now, you're guaranteed to get the full credit in a couple of months. I think the only rational reason to wait is if you believe the credit won't get worse and the base price goes down more than the value of your trade-in.

 

[Dubalina]

The credit can only get worse - it's never going to be better. If you buy a new Model Y now, you're guaranteed to get the full credit in a couple of months. I think the only rational reason to wait is if you believe the credit won't get worse and the base price goes down more than the value of your trade-in.

POS is a nice benefit vs waiting months for your tax return. Also apparently even if you don’t have 7.5k in tax liability, but are under the income limit you can get the POS credit next year. Seems unfair right that no tax liability can still get it, but from what I read that’s true.

 

[PNWLeccy]

The credit can only get worse - it's never going to be better. If you buy a new Model Y now, you're guaranteed to get the full credit in a couple of months. I think the only rational reason to wait is if you believe the credit won't get worse and the base price goes down more than the value of your trade-in.

There's been no indication that MY will lose the fed credit like it has been confirmed for M3RWD and M3LR and it's a gamble on what will happen to prices. Even if it keeps fed credit, it could stay discounted as people holdoff for Juniper release or it could even go up if it's one of the only models that will keep fed credit.

I have no idea what will happen but I'll see if another MYLR hits inventory at $45.5k and make a game-time decision. Either way, I'm not really gaining new features except for a slightly improved suspension and another ticket for the creaks and rattle lottery so I won't be too upset either way.