Discussion: Model 3 Price reductions - Jan / April / Oct 2023 and all other pricing discussions

[stkgator]

Just did another inventory search for M3 RWD - and found 11 different prices. Tesla is applying discounts in exactly 1% increments. I wonder if we will see $34,701?!

$35,090 10.0%
$35,480 9.0%
$35,870 8.0%
$36,260 7.0%
$36,650 6.0%
$37,040 5.0%
$37,430 4.0%
$37,820 3.0%
$38,210 2.0%
$38,600 1.0%
$38,990 0.0%

 

[zmarvin]

Just did another inventory search for M3 RWD - and found 11 different prices. Tesla is applying discounts in exactly 1% increments. I wonder if we will see $34,701?!

$35,090 10.0%
$35,480 9.0%
$35,870 8.0%
$36,260 7.0%
$36,650 6.0%
$37,040 5.0%
$37,430 4.0%
$37,820 3.0%
$38,210 2.0%
$38,600 1.0%
$38,990 0.0%

I wonder why some with the exact same specs are discounted differently in the same location

 

[mpgxsvcd]

It is very interesting how they no longer have an "Order" button on for any of the S,3,X,Y models on the homepage now. The CyberTruck has the order link but they removed it from the other vehicles. You can still get to the ordering pages by going through the menu but they don't make it easy.

The Model 3 still says "December" delivery for cars ordered right now. Typically it will say December-January at this point of the month especially with Christmas and New Years at the end of this month.

I am just going to say it. The 2023 Model 3 variants will end production by 12/31/2023. There is no source for that. I am speculating but I really do believe that will be the case. I think in January or sooner they will start producing the 2024 Highland Model 3 RWD and LR in the US. I don't believe the Highland Model 3 Performance/Ludicrous will be available at the same time as the RWD and LR. I think that will be delayed from the initial release just like in the rest of the world. However, I definitely could be wrong on that part.

I also think the prices will increase significantly from where the inventory prices will be later this month. They typically stop the inventory discounts at the end of a quarter. That could mean as much as $4,750 price difference from that alone. Then another $3,750 in the tax credit reduction and possibly another $1,000-$2,000 increase in MSRP. I really do believe that the prices could increase $10K+ starting in January. That would be for Model 3s and Model Ys. I believe the Model Y will lose the inventory discounts and have the tax credit halved but not necessarily have any MSRP increase.

If price is your motivating factor I would suggest that you buy an inventory Tesla Model 3 before the new year. I 100% guarantee it will be more expensive starting 1/01/2024. How much more expensive remains to be seen but I believe it will be significant?

Now, if you really want the Highland upgrades and would be disappointed if you could get that car in the US in late January even if it was many thousands more then wait. However, these current prices are pretty outstanding. It is really hard to pass up on these deals right now.

 

[stkgator]

I wonder why some with the exact same specs are discounted differently in the same location

I believe the discount is determined by the VIN - with older VINs getting the larger discount - but I would expect that all these vehicles were built within a few weeks if not days of each other. All these prices have the same specs: M3 RWD MSM/Black 18".

I am thinking that by showing the different discounts, it may encourage potential buyers (like me) to purchase an M3 immediately, as one can "see" that they are receiving a larger discount but also see that there is some urgency as the lower priced M3's are disappearing from the listings.

In the 10 minutes since my previous post, the $35,090 priced M3 has disappeared.

 

[tivoboy]

Historically, for a DEALERSHIP, every car had a different carrying cost at the dealership based on when it was purchased (mostly financed) from the OEM/Distributor, when delivered to the dealership, what the dealership financing on that vehicle was - and its curried CARRIED COST on a vehicle by vehicle basis.

The old trick for negotiating at the dealership was to find ALL the SAME CARS, color, spec, options, etc and find the OLDEST one as it had the highest PAIN for the dealership.

It could be, that even though there are not dealers with Tesla, they DO have some sort of internal carrying cost, per car and accumulated and that they are incented to move the oldest model vs the newest model all things considered.

 

[Starship1]

This is fascinating to watch especially if you’re looking at a RWD. I’ve also (happily for me at least) noticed that there aren’t any LRs sitting around in my area so am still happy with the 7% off I got three weeks ago - I’ve only seen one cheaper with the same specs (by around $500) this week.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

This is fascinating to watch especially if you’re looking at a RWD. I’ve also (happily for me at least) noticed that there aren’t any LRs sitting around in my area so am still happy with the 7% off I got three weeks ago - I’ve only seen one cheaper with the same specs (by around $500) this week.

There are Performance models that aren’t much more than LR models now. That is insane value.

 

[alexgr]

Can you provide some details?
I own a Y, have never driven the 3.
Thanks!

At the price point the 3 and the Y are now, and considering the Y may actually keep the tax credit while the 3 will lose it next year, the choice is between driver's car and family car. Model 3 offers a lot more composed drive than the model Y. Unless you go to extremes, M3 has almost no body roll, when the MY always has that wobbling feel when entering turns somewhat enthusiastically. When driving M3 you may feel a more precise control of the wheels and overall direction than in MY. Suspension moves in M3 a LOT more predictably than in MY. Again, M3 is a driver's car, and MY is an SUV, and if you drive both you can feel it.

 

[alexgr]

It is very interesting how they no longer have an "Order" button on for any of the S,3,X,Y models on the homepage now. The CyberTruck has the order link but they removed it from the other vehicles. You can still get to the ordering pages by going through the menu but they don't make it easy.
ls right now.

I think that's it. Tesla is closing. //TSLAQ

 

[ucmndd]

I am thinking that by showing the different discounts, it may encourage potential buyers (like me) to purchase an M3 immediately, as one can "see" that they are receiving a larger discount but also see that there is some urgency as the lower priced M3's are disappearing from the listings.

In the 10 minutes since my previous post, the $35,090 priced M3 has disappeared.

Exactly this. There’s no sense of urgency if there’s a whole pile of inventory cars all available for the max discount. They want one or two available at each price point in each region at all times.

I watched this pretty closely at the end of Q3 when I bought mine. When a car gets snapped up, another one is adjusted down to take its spot in a matter of hours.

 

[PNWLeccy]

Exactly this. There’s no sense of urgency if there’s a whole pile of inventory cars all available for the max discount. They want one or two available at each price point in each region at all times.

I watched this pretty closely at the end of Q3 when I bought mine. When a car gets snapped up, another one is adjusted down to take its spot in a matter of hours.

I have kept an eye on inventory for the last few weeks and it looks like that process has slowed down just as it did in the last 2-3 weeks of Q3. In some locations, there were many discounted M3s (CO) down to the low of $35,090 and now they're all at 1% discount or MSRP for M3 RWD.

I finally jumped at one in a neighboring state because I figured with the $4k inventory discount, $1k cybertruck reservation discount, and the additional $3750 fed credit I expect it to be $5-9k more expensive next year to buy the same car. Almost every other EV is losing the full $7.5k fed credit next year outside of Tesla (except for leases) and I don't think there will be as much pressure to discount when the highland comes out.

I'll miss some of the highland updates, particularly the cabin noise improvements and suspension improvements but I feel like nabbing a M3 for $21.5k after incentives (CO) is a steal any way you look at it.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Model 3 RWD and Model 3 LR will now lose the entire $7,500 tax credit on 1/1/2024. It is likely they will also lose all of the “Inventory” incentives as well.

If Highland comes out in Q1 next year then MSRPs could increase by $1,000-$2,000.

It is entirely possible that the Model 3 will increase in price as much as $15,000 next year.

Model Y RWD and LR lose only half of the tax credits. I am not sure how they will keep the MSRP of the Highland Model 3 under the final price of the Model Y. The Model Y is definitely going to be the better value next year.

 

[PNWLeccy]

Model 3 RWD and Model 3 LR will now lose the entire $7,500 tax credit on 1/1/2024. It is likely they will also lose all of the “Inventory” incentives as well.

If Highland comes out in Q1 next year then MSRPs could increase by $1,000-$2,000.

It is entirely possible that the Model 3 will increase in price as much as $15,000 next year.

Model Y RWD and LR lose only half of the tax credits. I am not sure how they will keep the MSRP of the Highland Model 3 under the final price of the Model Y. The Model Y is definitely going to be the better value next year.

View attachment 998887View attachment 998888

Interesting. I don’t see that language on Model Y specifying that it will drop to $3750 starting 1/1/24 on the order page or the inventory page

 

[mborkow]

Model 3 RWD and Model 3 LR will now lose the entire $7,500 tax credit on 1/1/2024

The verbiage states the 7500 tax credit will end at that time. It doesn’t say that there won’t be any tax credit for those vehicles at that time. If for instance the tax credit was reduced to 7499 their statement that the 7500 tax credit has ended would still be accurate (though hardly forthright)

 

[mpgxsvcd]

The verbiage states the 7500 tax credit will end at that time. It doesn’t say that there won’t be any tax credit for those vehicles at that time. If for instance the tax credit was reduced to 7499 their statement that the 7500 tax credit has ended would still be accurate (though hardly forthright)

I seriously doubt that will be the case. However, it is possible that they remove any and all tax credits for purchase but leases still qualify for the entire $7,500 tax credit regardless of your income and price. Leases are exempt from almost all of the rules.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Interesting. I don’t see that language on Model Y specifying that it will drop to $3750 starting 1/1/24 on the order page or the inventory page

There is an error on the Model Y order page. It lists the old Model 3 statement there. I am sure they will update that soon.

 

[BigNick]

Is this "confirmation" that Highland batteries will be made in the Shanghai factory instead of Fremont? Going from $7500 to $0 for the 3 but only reducing to $3750 for the Y seems to point this way.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Is this "confirmation" that Highland batteries will be made in the Shanghai factory instead of Fremont? Going from $7500 to $0 for the 3 but only reducing to $3750 for the Y seems to point this way.

That certainly could be the case.

 

[ucmndd]

Is this "confirmation" that Highland batteries will be made in the Shanghai factory instead of Fremont? Going from $7500 to $0 for the 3 but only reducing to $3750 for the Y seems to point this way.

I think (pure speculation) it’s the IRS/EPA closing the loophole Tesla used to bring the LR and RWD up to the full $7500 in the first place.

Recall both vehicles had $3750 rebates earlier this year. At some point it seems Tesla successfully argued that imported Chinese cells “assembled” into a full pack in the US qualified for the extra $3750.

Now in 2024 the mineral requirements are changing so the original $3750 is off the table. Plus either a clarification of the assembly rules OR Tesla deciding to import complete packs and giving up on the $3750 entirely. I kinda doubt the latter as I don’t imagine Tesla voluntarily giving up this incentive if they don’t have to.

I also think this announcement ensures the fence sitters waiting for bigger inventory discounts are done for. The $35,xxx inventory Model 3 RWD is done for.

 

[derekmw]

I think (pure speculation) it’s the IRS/EPA closing the loophole Tesla used to bring the LR and RWD up to the full $7500 in the first place.

Recall both vehicles had $3750 rebates earlier this year. At some point it seems Tesla successfully argued that imported Chinese cells “assembled” into a full pack in the US qualified for the extra $3750.

Now in 2024 the mineral requirements are changing so the original $3750 is off the table. Plus either a clarification of the assembly rules OR Tesla deciding to import complete packs and giving up on the $3750 entirely. I kinda doubt the latter as I don’t imagine Tesla voluntarily giving up this incentive if they don’t have to.

I also think this announcement ensures the fence sitters waiting for bigger inventory discounts are done for. The $35,xxx inventory Model 3 RWD is done for.

In CA I noticed all the $35k range ones are gone, but I still see quite a few in the $35k across the US. But I was thinking the same, that those will continue to run out and Tesla probably doesn't see the need to lower them unless they are trying to get rid of as many of these current inventory ones before year end. I'm still stuck trying to decide to jump on an RWD or not. Part of me wants the Y since I've already had 3 model 3's now