tl;dr 6-10 kWh per day to conservatively heat a mid-sized, well insulated house with a heat pump, estimated 15 to 20 to heat to 72.Question… based on the planned upgrade to our house, is the 7.2 kW system overkill? Would a smaller system suffice?
I have a 7.2 kW system in the Sacramento region with south facing panels, but some late afternoon shading from trees. The house is recently remodeled so good insulation in the walls and attic. We went with a 5 zone heat pump, and I severely underestimated how much electricity it would take to heat the house. With the outside in the 30s overnight to 60s during the day, it is taking 6-10 kWh per day to heat the public areas to 70. And that is turning the heat off from 11pm to 9am, and mostly not heating the bedrooms. At a rough estimate, it would take 15 to 20 kWh to heat the entire house to 72 for all 24 hours.
I would say put in as much as you can fit and afford.