Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week

[ModelXBoy]

The basic question boils down to: When do we stop giving TM/EM a 'pass' on missing self imposed deadlines and poor communication? Yesterday? Tomorrow? If there are problems with model3 timelines?

By the time Model 3 gets produced, giga factory should be open in full force. The new factory is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year. There might be more issues when they mass produce a car at that scale still. People will continue to give Tesla the "pass" as long as Tesla is innovating not like other auto makers. Innovation > occasional mess up. Tesla will never be problem free because they are making new things every single time. Each challenge is new to Tesla. Once they conquer the challenge, they will move on to next innovation with all new challenges. So there will be never ending problems and complains as well as innovation.

 

[AlMc]

By the time Model 3 gets produced, giga factory should be open in full force. The new factory is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year. There might be more issues when they mass produce a car at that scale still. People will continue to give Tesla the "pass" as long as Tesla is innovating not like other auto makers. Innovation > occasional mess up. Tesla will never be problem free because they are making new things every single time. Each challenge is new to Tesla. Once they conquer the challenge, they will move on to next innovation with all new challenges. So there will be never ending problems and complains as well as innovation.

Here is the problem. Most investors won't give TM/EM a 'pass' forever. The stock is getting hammered...some of it, IMO, because of failures in self imposed timelines/execution. If they want to continue to innovate that will require money. This money will come from sales supplemented by borrowed money or issuance of more shares of stock. So, it is much easier to obtain money when your stock price is rising (or at least stable) than when it is dropping and you are having a crisis in confidence because of failure to execute.

 

[ohmman]

^^ This. Look up what happens to companies during "down rounds". It's more critical during early private funding rounds, but it applies as well to publicly traded companies in times before their revenues are enough to fund their goals.

 

[ModelXBoy]

Here is the problem. Most investors won't give TM/EM a 'pass' forever. The stock is getting hammered...some of it, IMO, because of failures in self imposed timelines/execution. If they want to continue to innovate that will require money. This money will come from sales supplemented by borrowed money or issuance of more shares of stock. So, it is much easier to obtain money when your stock price is rising (or at least stable) than when it is dropping and you are having a crisis in confidence because of failure to execute.

This is why TM/EM must come out and talk something to maintain confidence. Their mess ups will lessen in the future because their inability to achieve their own goal has become a routine. You will probably see a improvement over their logistics and manufacture process in the next 6 month.

 

[ankitmishra]

I just posted this in TM forums: Tesla can easily raise about 1 billion dollars from Model 3 reservations. They should take $20000 for Signatures reservation and should give preference to loaded top end 3 for initial deliveries. In this way, maybe 25000 signatures and 25000 loaded 3 in the beginning will give Tesla huge amount of money. Also, the sales of Model S have been increasing and add to that the positive feedback from the initial owners of X. Maybe 90000 sales in 2016 and 150000 in 2017 (not including 3).

 

[AlMc]

This is why TM/EM must come out and talk something to maintain confidence. Their mess ups will lessen in the future because their inability to achieve their own goal has become a routine. You will probably see a improvement over their logistics and manufacture process in the next 6 month.

I am impressed by your optimism and I hope you are correct. You are hoping they get these things fixed but neither you or I *know* they will.

History (facts, not hope) has shown they have problems with these things. This history is leading to uncertainty by investors and the declining stock price.

 

[ankitmishra]

By the time Model 3 gets produced, giga factory should be open in full force. The new factory is capable of producing 500,000 cars a year. There might be more issues when they mass produce a car at that scale still. People will continue to give Tesla the "pass" as long as Tesla is innovating not like other auto makers. Innovation > occasional mess up. Tesla will never be problem free because they are making new things every single time. Each challenge is new to Tesla. Once they conquer the challenge, they will move on to next innovation with all new challenges. So there will be never ending problems and complains as well as innovation.

Since we are cheering those with the same views as us here, I will cheer you. Nicely said.
Hmmm, this comment from me wasn't required, apologies.

 

[dhanson865]

How many years does a company have to be in business to be considered out of the 'start up' category?

I'd say it isn't about years, its about growth rate. So long as they are talking about doubling the sales per year for several years to come it's still a growth company. When sales growth slows to less than 50% or 33% a year maybe?

 

[ModelXBoy]

I am impressed by your optimism and I hope you are correct. You are hoping they get these things fixed but neither you or I *know* they will.

History (facts, not hope) has shown they have problems with these things. This history is leading to uncertainty by investors and the declining stock price.

Here is the thing. There is nothing we can do because Tesla is making such a desirable electronic device on wheel. What we can do is convince ourself hey, we have hope in this man!

 

[AlMc]

Here is the thing. There is nothing we can do because Tesla is making such a desirable electronic device on wheel. What we can do is convince ourself hey, we have hope in this man!

Nothing wrong with hope. I hope you are correct. Over and out.:wink:

 

[ankitmishra]

And how do you know that since we are probably almost 2 years away from production? Yes, it will have fewer innovations but will it be on time and in the price point that was predicted?

I don't know that, but I am extremely positive about it. Tesla of 2017 might be already churning 150000 cars before 3 is launched. Again, just a guess.

 

[Electricfan]

I for one enjoy reading all the positives and all the negatives as long as they are true and legit. In my mind, that is what this forum should be.

There are a few of us that share your view here. I think we're outnumbered though.

 

[roblab]

There are a few of us that share your view here. I think we're outnumbered though.

I like to hear of what works, but listing off all the defects, often some of which are purely opinion, doesn't help anything. Maybe helps knock sales, I don't know. That sounds like an interesting goal.

To say that the doors aren't aligned, well, that's a service center visit. It gets fixed. You (not YOU personally) aren't going to get Tesla to pump out cars to beat the band and not have some glitches. To claim that Elon lied, well that doesn't do anything. That just means that someone might be happier with a Subaru.

But there is nothing that compares with the electric drive system that Tesla has, or its charge network, or its dreams of building up and out. For some of us, we've been around. We've had the misaligned doors, the switches that didn't work, the latch that broke, the inverter that failed in the desert. Hey, they got fixed. The big bad things that matter, that would make me buy another car aren't there at all.

That's my problem. If someone is complaining, make it legitimate, about something that Tesla can fix, realistically. Saying that you don't think you should have to wait 2 months to get your car, and that Tesla needs to get its act together -- well, you get the picture.

I think anyone here is able to read the automotive reviews to find out true weaknesses. Beyond that, you should be comparing electric drive to ICE, and there is no comparison.

 

[ohmman]

If someone is complaining, make it legitimate, about something that Tesla can fix, realistically.

Tesla can fix their corporate communications and they can certainly improve expectation management. Those are the areas I'd like to see them improve. Not for me personally, I'm an owner and about to be a Tesla-only vehicle family, but for their future. I haven't complained about the build of my MS - I love it despite what some would call "shortcomings". But when Tesla promises ranger or valet service, then pulls it from existing owners.. I personally don't think that's the way to run a business. Doesn't affect me, but I care about Tesla and I empathize with those left in a difficult situation.

Tesla can fix their customer facing information stream. There is a large collection of quality software that aids with this. You can give every customer the same message, whether they're in New York, Minnesota, or California. This is a solved problem in industry. When people purchasing an MX are told falsely that the falcon wing doors and the front door might intersect and cause damage, that's an internal information failure. It's solvable, and it shouldn't ever occur.

Not all problems show up in automotive magazine reviews.

 

[Red Sage]

Is there any way to find out how many people are ignoring you? Not you, me. I mean yourself. Not yourself, myself. You know what I mean.

Uhm... Who's on first?
;-)

I don't know. My standard internet forum disclaimer is that I recommend people ignore me. After all, I'm just some guy on the internet. What do I know?

Oh, wait... Third base!

 

[ankitmishra]

Tesla is concentrating on what's most important as of now. And that is to ramp up X with brilliant quality. Everything else comes after that. There isnt any confusion about S features as now.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The basic question boils down to: When do we stop giving TM/EM a 'pass' on missing self imposed deadlines and poor communication? Yesterday? Tomorrow? If there are problems with model3 timelines?

"We" won't stop until there is no longer a line of customers buying their products. At the moment missing deadlines and poor communication seems to have minimal impact on demand. Tesla is still continually coming out with new product and improving the old one and it seems to be keeping the flow of customers going.

Missing a deadline isn't fatal. Coming out with a car that attracts customers is far more important. I think people have confidence that even if Tesla is late, they can come out with a more compelling car than all other automakers.

 

[CTemp222]

"We" won't stop until there is no longer a line of customers buying their products. At the moment missing deadlines and poor communication seems to have minimal impact on demand. Tesla is still continually coming out with new product and improving the old one and it seems to be keeping the flow of customers going.

Missing a deadline isn't fatal. Coming out with a car that attracts customers is far more important. I think people have confidence that even if Tesla is late, they can come out with a more compelling car than all other automakers.

I have to agree, Elon doesn't wan't to compromise design. Even if that means missing deadlines, having a compelling product is way more important. However the stock market sure doesn't like him missing deadlines.

 

[Red Sage]

Missing a deadline isn't fatal. Coming out with a car that attracts customers is far more important. I think people have confidence that even if Tesla is late, they can come out with a more compelling car than all other automakers.

I have to agree, Elon doesn't wan't to compromise design. Even if that means missing deadlines, having a compelling product is way more important. However the stock market sure doesn't like him missing deadlines.

+42! The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about 'How Can You Be Sure the Sky Isn't Falling at Tesla Motors?'

 

[ohmman]

^ False dichotomy. These things aren't exclusive.