Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week

[Blastphemy]

It is time for optimism folks.
The company said that they are on an exponential growth path (or some wording like that).
I think people will be shocked by how many will be produced in Q1 and Q2!

I am definitely shocked at February's numbers, but since I predicted it I'm not necessarily surprised.

Check out Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard for a quick and dirty of US only deliveries* or check out shareholder meeting data for worldwide deliveries.

The scorecard estimates 400 Model Xs delivered in February.

I don't think 100 delivered per week is going to help Tesla meet its guidance. If Tesla is truly building more than 250 per month at this point, one really has to wonder where these missing ~600 vehicles have been secreted away for QC and repairs. That's a lot of cars to just have sitting around...

Hopefully these problems plaguing its production will be resolved promptly.

 

[socalsam]

I think they discovered some problem parts during production now they are dealing to ge them replaced. I no one for sure is the charging port. They are having a problem with cracks. Another problem is the seal around front windows and around Falcon Wing doors. I agree that much is out of Tesla's control.

How can it be out of Teslas control when they designed, sourced and built the car. Its all under Teslas control. But obviously 5 months since the launch, they have had a miserable ramp up. No doubt they will get it fixed but lets call a spade a spade- Its Teslas issue and no one else. Hard to place blame on other suppliers.

 

[roblab]

Bully all you want, but it won't change the disappointing number of Model X produced in Q1 and Q2. And I have no idea to what you're referring about font sizes.

I'm not disappointed in the production or sales numbers of Model X. Why are you?

 

[elguapo]

I'm not disappointed in the production or sales numbers of Model X. Why are you?

No one knows what the real numbers are. I think the disappointment comes from the 250/week +/- they said they were at by 12/31/15 versus delivery rates that are anecdotally much lower. So, it would appear they either a) are no longer making 250/week due to QC issues or b) have found a huge storage area to place all of these Xs that have issues.

Bottom line for me is I don't really care. I want my X ASAP, but I want it with the highest quality possible - equal to any other brand for which I would pay $140,000. If that means I wait another 6 months, so be it.

 

[ABCCBA]

BRAVO!!! Ditto

Bottom line for me is I don't really care. I want my X ASAP, but I want it with the highest quality possible - equal to any other brand for which I would pay $140,000. If that means I wait another 6 months, so be it.

 

[Aljohn]

I hope Tesla gets this going. Having ~20,000 US reservation holders convert to confirmed orders creates an expectation of Production and Deliveries. Tesla has now invited nearly all the US reservation holders to configure. Presumably to begin Building, Producing and Delivering Model X's. Additionally, they have invited Canadian and European reservation holders to the Design Center to Confirm and Order. I applaud Tesla for "Meet the X Tour"... I said sometime ago, this is what then need to do in light of not having Demo in the Centers. However, this also generates configurations and confirmed orders. So Tesla is doing quite a bit to convert reservations to orders which further creates expectations of Production and Deliveries.... not to mention nearly a $billion in revenue as the reservation deposits are moved on the balance sheet to revenue!

As stated, Tesla "doesn't invest in demand generation" in the traditional sense. However the mystique over the last few years of the Model X, delays, mule testing has created demand. So now there is an obligation to fix what every the delays are..... Good luck to all the people working hard to solve the issues..... Good luck all the vendors delivering parts. That said, It is TESLA's to manage... from the supply chain to out the customer. Hope things are moving better.

 

[maoing]

from insideEVs, total 770 model X delivered in Jan/Feb, plus 208 delivered in Q4. Total 978 so far, it represents 60ish founder X, probably 800ish signature X plus 100is production X. I think it correlates well with the delivery reports in model X forum. Without significant delivery ramp up, I don't see how tesla meet its 2000ish model X delivery target for Q1.

The scorecard estimates 400 Model Xs delivered in February.

I don't think 100 delivered per week is going to help Tesla meet its guidance. If Tesla is truly building more than 250 per month at this point, one really has to wonder where these missing ~600 vehicles have been secreted away for QC and repairs. That's a lot of cars to just have sitting around...

Hopefully these problems plaguing its production will be resolved promptly.

 

[30seconds]

So do you think they are about 150/ week at this point? How long till 300/week?

 

[johnnyduval]

Additionally, they have invited Canadian and European reservation holders to the Design Center to Confirm and Order.

Wow - just in last 24 hours and I can see:

"In Germany, a fully loaded Model X P90D will reportedly cost €172,000 ($187,000)"

Holy crap!!

 

[dwebb66]

Wow - just in last 24 hours and I can see:

"In Germany, a fully loaded Model X P90D will reportedly cost €172,000 ($187,000)"

Holy crap!!

you need to back out the tax/vat and delivery charges to see Tesla's price vs the local taxes.

 

[elguapo]

So do you think they are about 150/ week at this point? How long till 300/week?

I think 150/week is optimistic at this exact moment. Again, I think they're taking it super slow while they figure out how to mass produce this beast and making new cars that then need to be fixed/retrofitted, doesn't make economic sense.

 

[eye.surgeon]

I haven't followed the X much but that seems like shockingly low production this far after the launch.

 

[Red Sage]

How can it be out of Teslas control when they designed, sourced and built the car. Its all under Teslas control. But obviously 5 months since the launch, they have had a miserable ramp up. No doubt they will get it fixed but lets call a spade a spade- Its Teslas issue and no one else. Hard to place blame on other suppliers.

When a package doesn't reach a Client because the FEDEX truck was snowed in, or flooded, or struck by lightning...? They don't blame FEDEX. They blame YOU. They will tell all their Friends and Family and any random individual they come across all about how they missed a deadline because YOU weren't able to deliver their package to them on time. That is human nature.

So, yeah... Tesla Motors is willing to accept all the flack and criticism, because they know full well that they will be held accountable by their Customers. They also may know that in the end, those Customers are better served by their finding the root of the problems they have detected and fixing them prior to Delivery. There is absolutely no reason to tell the Customer what problems Tesla is experiencing either internally or with Suppliers. Because ultimately, it will be seen as a feeble attempt at an Excuse, even if it is actually an Explanation.

On the other hand, Customers should stop demanding Explanations. Because no matter what is said, the response will be, "That's no Excuse!" anyway. Let's face it, you don't really want an Explanation.

You want your car.

 

[goneskiian]

When a package doesn't reach a Client because the FEDEX truck was snowed in, or flooded, or struck by lightning...? They don't blame FEDEX. They blame YOU. They will tell all their Friends and Family and any random individual they come across all about how they missed a deadline because YOU weren't able to deliver their package to them on time. That is human nature.

So, yeah... Tesla Motors is willing to accept all the flack and criticism, because they know full well that they will be held accountable by their Customers. They also may know that in the end, those Customers are better served by their finding the root of the problems they have detected and fixing them prior to Delivery. There is absolutely no reason to tell the Customer what problems Tesla is experiencing either internally or with Suppliers. Because ultimately, it will be seen as a feeble attempt at an Excuse, even if it is actually an Explanation.

On the other hand, Customers should stop demanding Explanations. Because no matter what is said, the response will be, "That's no Excuse!" anyway. Let's face it, you don't really want an Explanation.

You want your car.

Yup. Well said Red.

 

[jerry33]

I think 150/week is optimistic at this exact moment. Again, I think they're taking it super slow while they figure out how to mass produce this beast and making new cars that then need to be fixed/retrofitted, doesn't make economic sense.

Right. They'll likely ramp up at the same speed as the S. I recall these same conversations in 2012.

 

[umeshunni]

Right. They'll likely ramp up at the same speed as the S. I recall these same conversations in 2012.

As someone new to Tesla - what was ramp up speed for the S?

 

[dhanson865]

I think 150/week is optimistic at this exact moment. Again, I think they're taking it super slow while they figure out how to mass produce this beast and making new cars that then need to be fixed/retrofitted, doesn't make economic sense.

from insideEVs, total 770 model X delivered in Jan/Feb, plus 208 delivered in Q4. Total 978 so far, it represents 60ish founder X, probably 800ish signature X plus 100is production X. I think it correlates well with the delivery reports in model X forum. Without significant delivery ramp up, I don't see how tesla meet its 2000ish model X delivery target for Q1.

I'd like to remind those looking at the insdeEVs scorecard that it is for US deliveries only. Any Model X delivered to Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, etc won't show up in those numbers.

Tesla may be doing all the California deliveries they can now to get some more money on the Q1 books but don't be surprised when they start shipping out of country and the ModelX US numbers don't jump.

They may have already started the switch to making Model X for other markets in March since it is hard to get new production out the door in only a couple of weeks time.

 

[Spidy]

I'd like to remind those looking at the insdeEVs scorecard that it is for US deliveries only. Any Model X delivered to Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, etc won't show up in those numbers.

Tesla may be doing all the California deliveries they can now to get some more money on the Q1 books but don't be surprised when they start shipping out of country and the ModelX US numbers don't jump.

They may have already started the switch to making Model X for other markets in March since it is hard to get new production out the door in only a couple of weeks time.

Those countries could not even configure until very recently.

And if they switched in March that still doesn't change January&February numbers.

 

[Darryl]

How can it be out of Teslas control when they designed, sourced and built the car. Its all under Teslas control. But obviously 5 months since the launch, they have had a miserable ramp up. No doubt they will get it fixed but lets call a spade a spade- Its Teslas issue and no one else. Hard to place blame on other suppliers.

@socalsam

Where Tesls makes the majority of what goes into the it doesn't make all. As an example is the Falcon Wing doors were only brought in house last fall when the vender couldn't provide a satisfactory product. When we were at the factory we were provided the % of product made from raw material and what is outsourced but since I don't have the exact figure I won't give a number. I know the touch screens were being made by nVidia. If you think they make things like, tires, bolts, nuts and many other parts you are wrong. The percent outsourced compared to other car manufactured is low but it is still a big factor.


Someone had said the reason they are working on the CA orders first is to increase the Q4 numbers. If anyone thinks they can issue VINs the first week of March and the cars will be delivered by the end of the month you are talking about a different company than Tesla. They have yet to get cars to the customer any faster than six to eight weeks and that is best case. I hope they get them delivered to customer by the end of the month as it would a big turnaround but there has to be another reason.

 

[vandacca]

Where Tesla makes the majority of what goes into the it doesn't make all. As an example is the Falcon Wing doors were only brought in house last fall when the vender couldn't provide a satisfactory product. When we were at the factory we were provided the % of product made from raw material and what is outsourced but since I don't have the exact figure I won't give a number. I know the touch screens were being made by nVidia. If you think they make things like, tires, bolts, nuts and many other parts you are wrong. The percent outsourced compared to other car manufactured is low but it is still a big factor.

From what I recall, Tesla brought the Falcon Doors in house almost 1 year ago. It was around Spring 2015. Not that the actual date matters much to your point, but I just wanted to ensure accurate information.

Someone had said the reason they are working on the CA orders first is to increase the Q4 numbers. If anyone thinks they can issue VINs the first week of March and the cars will be delivered by the end of the month you are talking about a different company than Tesla. They have yet to get cars to the customer any faster than six to eight weeks and that is best case. I hope they get them delivered to customer by the end of the month as it would a big turnaround but there has to be another reason.

Good point. Unless they managed to get the build time down to Model-S times.