Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week

[dhanson865]

If Tesla was producing even 250 cars per week this year, all 1,200 Sigs and the first ~500 Production cars would already be in customers' hands. But there's no evidence of that many deliveries occurring. And the excuse that deliveries are slower than production doesn't hold water, as that would mean exponential levels of undelivered inventory sitting at the factory.

I doubt we'll see a single week in Q2 that achieves 1,000 Model Xs produced (or even comes close).

Check out Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard for a quick and dirty of US only deliveries* or check out shareholder meeting data for worldwide deliveries.

But while you are thinking about it the Fremont facility has produced over 500,000 cars a year in the past and can easily be tooled up to do 500,000 a year again. Tesla will ramp it up as much as possible between now and the end of 2017 so it isn't impossible for them to hit my numbers. It's just uncertain.

And lets talk about Tesla's track record for a second.

2012 2,600 cars
2013 25,000 cars total (22,400 cars in 2013 + prior year)
2014 57,000 cars total (32,000 cars in 2014 + prior years)
2015 107,000 cars total (50,000 cars in 2015 + prior years)

2016 forecast in the last earning call is 80,000 to 90,000 cars.

2017 could take it up to 125,000
2018 could take it up to 190,000

It might be less but their "track record" is that they increased production by 56% comparing 2015 to 2014. So I have no reason to believe they won't increase it like they plan to..

Just keep in mind those are worldwide numbers so if you are in the US and your order number is in the high 4 digit or 5 digit range you aren't just waiting behind US and Canada orders.

*the monthly scorecard URL is permanent but the data updates several times a day around the beginning of the month until all the data is in. You'll have to wait until about March 2nd or March 3rd to see Feb numbers for US deliveries and have a serious idea of what happened in Feb. Even then you'll be looking at data that is several weeks rearward looking, there will always be more cars in transit that have been produced but not delivered. For overseas deliveries those can be batched up in the hundreds or thousands per shipment.

 

[Blastphemy]

Why is it not possible for them to ramp up to 1000 by June 30?

Sure, it's possible. But if you look at all my previous predictions, you'll see I've been correct almost every time. I totally called the pitiful deliveries (almost to the exact number) for Q4 2015 while everyone else was promising hundreds of Model X would be delivered each month after the reveal... right up until December 31st when their bubble was finally burst by the facts. Go head and check back here on July 1, 2016 and you'll see I was right again. (I hope I won't be since that affects my own Model X delivery, but unfortunately I'll probably be right just like before.)

Check out Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard for a quick and dirty of US only deliveries* or check out shareholder meeting data for worldwide deliveries.

From that sales scorecard page to which you link: "Tesla Model X: Like the Model S, Tesla does not itself report Model X sales, so we do our best with all the data at our disposal to estimate monthly results for North America as best we can." So don't believe for one second that sales reported on that page is gospel.

 

[s+x+3]

Stating something does not mean it is going to happen. I think that either Elon has surrounded himself with Yes people or they are being pressured in not responding negatively to what Elon wants. In either case it is not a healthy relationship between CEO of the company and experts he has employed to give realistic timing to him as he is definitely not an expert when it comes to manufacturing scheduling and production ramping.

Just my two cents worth.

- - - Updated - - -

Was the total number of deliveries for model x in 2015 about 208?

 

[dhanson865]

From that sales scorecard page to which you link: "Tesla Model X: Like the Model S, Tesla does not itself report Model X sales, so we do our best with all the data at our disposal to estimate monthly results for North America as best we can." So don't believe for one second that sales reported on that page is gospel.

and they correct the numbers when Tesla releases quarterly. But if you want US only numbers instead of worldwide numbers that is the site to go to. Do you wonder at all how they estimate the numbers? They do hard work to tally what they do. But go on and cry about your model x delivery numbers that you don't have. I'm sure you can change the font size even larger.

- - - Updated - - -

Was the total number of deliveries for model x in 2015 about 208?

according to Tesla Fourth Quarter 2015 Shareholder Letter

We delivered 17,478 vehicles in Q4, including 206 Model X vehicles.

If you remember 6 were delivered in September so that makes 212 for the year of 2015.

The inaccurate scorecard says 214 so it's off by 2. It might be right that 2 more were delivered at the end of the year or those 2 might be officially 2016 deliveries. We won't know from official sources if Tesla revised the 2015 delivery numbers until Q1 2016 results and then only if we pay attention to 2015 numbers.

But inaccuracies and outdated information are how FUD is made. People feed off the ability to speak inaccuracies because they know it'll take months for the data to come out and by then they'll have new FUD to spread about even newer data that doesn't exist yet.

 

[s+x+3]

If I recall correctly there was a post by eds in about June or July last year to the effect that total delivery numbers for 2015 would be about 200 model x vehicles and many forum members were not happy with the statement but it appears that eds was correct, when we are typically talking about automotive production of particular model being over 100 k per year being out by few dozen or few hundred is considered to be on the money, more or less.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

If I recall correctly there was a post by eds in about June or July last year to the effect that total delivery numbers for 2015 would be about 200 model x vehicles

My slightly different recollection is that he said something to the extent of 'less than 100' and that Tesla would be using 'inferior' components. Eds' posts were deleted though, so I can't be sure.

 

[ohmman]

His words were 'severely compromised'.

 

[Drivin]

It is time for optimism folks.
The company said that they are on an exponential growth path (or some wording like that).
I think people will be shocked by how many will be produced in Q1 and Q2!

 

[maoing]

They said so on Jan. 4th and TSLA lost almost 1/3 value before Q4 ER. Be optimistic is one of the fastest way to lose money on TSLA investment in the past a few years.

It is time for optimism folks.
The company said that they are on an exponential growth path (or some wording like that).
I think people will be shocked by how many will be produced in Q1 and Q2!

 

[AlMc]

It is time for optimism folks.
The company said that they are on an exponential growth path (or some wording like that).
I think people will be shocked by how many will be produced in Q1 and Q2!

I am ready for a 'good' shock to the upside.......just make sure the shock is not because of a miss.:wink:

 

[elguapo]

It would be amazing if they get to 700/week in Q2 - the low end of what Elon said. It's a tough car to make. Q1 will likely disappoint on production given what we are seeing in the forums. They need to get quality right and I am okay with a much slower ramp to get there. Likely pushes stock down in short term, though I think 3/31 reveal of 3 will affect stock more. That said, I have no position in TM stock and never have. I just buy the cars and I want my P90D!

 

[Blastphemy]

It is time for optimism folks.
The company said that they are on an exponential growth path (or some wording like that).
I think people will be shocked by how many will be produced in Q1 and Q2!

Be as optimistic as you want. It won't change the disappointing number of Model X produced in Q1 and Q2.

It would be amazing if they get to 700/week in Q2 - the low end of what Elon said. It's a tough car to make. Q1 will likely disappoint on production given what we are seeing in the forums. They need to get quality right and I am okay with a much slower ramp to get there. Likely pushes stock down in short term, though I think 3/31 reveal of 3 will affect stock more. That said, I have no position in TM stock and never have. I just buy the cars and I want my P90D!

Exactly. All the empirical evidence demonstrates significantly fewer Model X being produced than all the "optimists" on this forum claim will be made. Same thing happened for Q4 2015, when all these blinded optimists thought every single Signature reservation would be delivered by December 31, 2015. And yet point out that it's nearly the end of February and there are still many Sig customers without their car just as I predicted, and people like dhandson865 refuse to see it and accept the reality. I'd love to be proven wrong, because I want my X sooner rather than later too, but I won't be wrong, just as I wasn't last year.

But if you want US only numbers instead of worldwide numbers that is the site to go to. Do you wonder at all how they estimate the numbers? They do hard work to tally what they do.

If you remember 6 were delivered in September so that makes 212 for the year of 2015. The inaccurate scorecard says 214 so it's off by 2.

Now that's just rich! First you say the Scorecard is accurate, then turn around and point out that it isn't! Thank you... that was awesome.

But go on and cry about your model x delivery numbers that you don't have. I'm sure you can change the font size even larger.

Bully all you want, but it won't change the disappointing number of Model X produced in Q1 and Q2. And I have no idea to what you're referring about font sizes.

 

[dhanson865]

Now that's just rich! First you say the Scorecard is accurate, then turn around and point out that it isn't! Thank you... that was awesome.

sarcasm doesn't work for you I see.

I explained why it might not agree and the difference is 2 vehicles in a quarter or less than 1%.

I also documented where the official numbers are. Use them if you don't like the US scorecard from insideevs.

 

[stef]

Another twit from Tesla Motors (1 hour ago) showing more bots at work on MX.
Wonder whether Elon and co are trying to tell us something...

 

[dhanson865]

Another twit from Tesla Motors (1 hour ago) showing more bots at work on MX.
Wonder whether Elon and co are trying to tell us something...

fyi, the term twitter uses in the US is "tweet" not "twit".

 

[stef]

Indeed ... But haven't (yet) managed to edit.
Sorry, no offence intended

 

[Drivin]

Another twit from Tesla Motors (1 hour ago) showing more bots at work on MX.
Wonder whether Elon and co are trying to tell us something...

Wow, nice twit from Tesla!
Look at how fast those bots are assembling - and not a person in sight!!
This means something!
It explains the exponential growth that they talked about.

 

[aesculus]

fyi, the term twitter uses in the US is "tweet" not "twit".

That depends on who is behind the tweet. :smile:

 

[s+x+3]

I think that the bottleneck for model X is with supplier base rather than tesla. The main internal production related item that Tezha has is to do with quality of the final assembly and this is something that they control.

 

[Darryl]

I think that the bottleneck for model X is with supplier base rather than tesla. The main internal production related item that Tezha has is to do with quality of the final assembly and this is something that they control.

I think they discovered some problem parts during production now they are dealing to ge them replaced. I no one for sure is the charging port. They are having a problem with cracks. Another problem is the seal around front windows and around Falcon Wing doors. I agree that much is out of Tesla's control.