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Elon Musk: EAP solved, on track for FSD completion in 2019 (No one else is close!)

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Much like many here, I'm spending time here for two reasons: i) I love my Tesla as an electric vehicle because it is super fun to drive and ii) as a spoiled geek, I want to be part of this fantastic journey towards software slowly eating driving.

So, I'm really enjoying the discovery of new features, the evolution of existing ones, and a bit less the regressions, but this is part of the experience for me.

Now, I was never quite interested in being part of a sect. I love rationale and critical thinking too much. As such, I won't be blindly believing what Elon Musk says. I believed him once (hey, I bought the AP2 model as soon as it was released as I thought the video was a real one, confirmed by the sales rep, and that it was merely waiting for legal approval in my country!). Up until that time, Elon Musk was talking like a visionary and a very grounded engineer. And that led him to great successes. But in the last few years, under extreme pressure to deliver and keep his company alive (which I definitively have empathy for), he had to change his tune to sell dreams. Some say "I don't think Elon is outright lying". No? Well, personally, I have too much respect for Elon Musk's intellect to think that he can say so stupid things and be so wrong on timelines, recurringly. So, yes, I think he is absolutely intentionally BS'ing us, he is absolutely unethical, but this is for the most part probably legal (remember, he is smart!). So given, this, count me as a vibrant observer of this journey, but don't count me in as a sect member that will try to find excuses for Elon Musk and start vibrating for any silly tweet he makes or "we are better than any vendor out there" torso bumping. When I listen to him now, he has lost a lot of credibility to my eyes and I frequently see him as being pathetic, in its truest sense i.e. it makes me sad to see such crap behavior from such a great intellect.

So, yes, Tesla cars are SUPER FUN to drive, they are the mass-produced vehicle with the most advanced software features and this will be a super fun journey. Oh, and I can't talk about v9 as it is not released in my country yet...

But, no, Tesla is by no mean the most advanced producer of SDC, the # of miles driven means nada today since it is barely being used, I'm convinced that the lack of LIDAR will be a show-stopper for FSD (if only because you need a backup sensing mechanism and that doubling cameras will just double the number of dirty cameras), that they will certainly NOT be the first one to show true L5 FSD (not talking about L4 here), and the v9 feature set is yet another (fun!) toy but not yet anything I'd trust my life on based on what I've seen, and, it is fine as it is actually released (but not marketed!) as such since you always have to remain in control (so you have to keep worrying about the road AND of the (E)AP-monkey sitting on your laps and randomly doing stupid things with the wheel, brakes and accelerator).

So I'm excited to be on the journey, but don't BS me Elon, your spell has stopped working.
 
There are many complex problems Tesla is not addressing, but let's start with a very simple one. When the car drives, the cameras around get dirty (see what happens to the read view camera in rain). So a simple question for you, how is this right software, that you are suggesting can be written, going to keep the cameras clean? Or do you define non-severe weather as perfect sunshine, driven on perfectly clean roads with no water, dust, or anything that could possibly get kicked up and settle on the cameras?

The Rear Camera is not a true representation. Did you ever notice that the back of a car gets the dirtiest? There is a reason for this. Think of the air flow in wind tunnel tests and you'll get it.

I'm not fighting the inevitable. I have laid out exactly what Tesla can do and when it will be able to achieve it and i have been Bulls-eye so far. Think about it. NOA was Tesla's general approach to highway autonomy yet it works 5% of the time. Infact as i outlined the only new thing it does is change lanes to take exits when next to an exit lane, slow down to a complete stop to change lane (which is dangerous).

My point is, if NOA is Tesla's general highway autonomy, what do you think Elon's so called level 5 general full self driving is gonna look like next year? Elon is still setting up lemonade stands laced with kool-aid.

There's that 5% again! I'm 100% sure you DO NOT own or drive a Tesla.
You're in Michigan so you know it's been raining like crazy for the week and a half that I've had v9. As an actual owner of a Model S I can tell you while I doubt FSD as well, you are correct 5% of the time.
I've taken 75 to 59 and 59 to 75. 75 to 94. All were successful, this doesn't match anywhere near 5%

Orion Road! One super twisty hill Crest infested road if you've been on it.
V8 handled it well and V9 has been a slight improvement to a 100% success rate.

I mean how many times do you have to say 5% before we realize that number is made up and based on 0% fact or personal experience...
 
There's that 5% again! I'm 100% sure you DO NOT own or drive a Tesla.
You're in Michigan so you know it's been raining like crazy for the week and a half that I've had v9. As an actual owner of a Model S I can tell you while I doubt FSD as well, you are correct 5% of the time.
I've taken 75 to 59 and 59 to 75. 75 to 94. All were successful, this doesn't match anywhere near 5%

Shout out to Michigan peep!
In the land of pedantic SW engineers, what he typed was
Think about it. NOA was Tesla's general approach to highway autonomy yet it works 5% of the time.
Note he did not say "only 5%". If it works 95% of the time, it also works 5% of the time...;)
(Pet peeve: as that say save up to 50% or more... well that is pretty much the full range there)

Elon started out in software. I write software, I get the issue with timelines. You don't know how long it will take until you do it. If you hit a HW limit of your system, well that just added on a board spin and architecture change delay.

Current FSD code can't run on current hardware, so no one has this larger NN version. It is somewhat like judging Windows XP based on Win 98 (or Win ME shudder). (Or a 64 bit OS vs 32)
 
Shout out to Michigan peep!
In the land of pedantic SW engineers, what he typed was
Note he did not say "only 5%". If it works 95% of the time, it also works 5% of the time...;)
(Pet peeve: as that say save up to 50% or more... well that is pretty much the full range there)

Elon started out in software. I write software, I get the issue with timelines. You don't know how long it will take until you do it. If you hit a HW limit of your system, well that just added on a board spin and architecture change delay.

Current FSD code can't run on current hardware, so no one has this larger NN version. It is somewhat like judging Windows XP based on Win 98 (or Win ME shudder). (Or a 64 bit OS vs 32)

Software guy myself, but less and less as my Company has grown so much in the past few years. My knowledge of coding is what makes me doubt FSD ever being fully realized, but since buying my P100D in May I've somewhat reversed my position. I've been amazed at the situations and roads it could handle. My M59 to 75 samples were this past Saturday, it was raining the whole time and it handled it all like a champ.
The day I picked it up from Ohio and drove it back to Michigan after the Cameras calibrated I was testing (granted v8.1) it was raining to the point I could barely see the lines & I was amazed that the car somehow could see and never asked me to take over...

My percentages come from actual experience and ownership, not from handpicked YouTube Videos to prove my slanted view & that is my pet peeve... LOL
 
The Rear Camera is not a true representation. Did you ever notice that the back of a car gets the dirtiest? There is a reason for this. Think of the air flow in wind tunnel tests and you'll get it.
Ok, so say it's 10 times better than rear camera, so instead of 3 minutes in the rain it will take 30 minutes to become useless. Even if it's 100 time better, still not great to have to wash your car every 5 hrs.
 
Ok, so say it's 10 times better than rear camera, so instead of 3 minutes in the rain it will take 30 minutes to become useless. Even if it's 100 time better, still not great to have to wash your car every 5 hrs.

Driven in rain ALL WEEK cause Michigan Sucks... LOL
I've not cleaned my Cameras and have been using AP a lot
I don't think I've seen a diminish in performance yet.
Used it last night with said dirty cameras and it handled an all non-hughway drive with limited street lights. (23 mile to schoenherr to 25 mile to Rochester to Orion)
I of course took over for Red Lights with no lead car, 2 round abouts, the turns. But there was 0 mistakes by my cameras with 5 days of non-stop rain on them... so while in theory I agree, in accrued experience I have to disagree
 
Random startups spun every other day and can do highway autonomy with their eyes closed.

Again ... :rolleyes: please, could you tell me which brand / model should I buy now, today, on 2018 for that level of autonomy? Please note that I live on a small town 20 miles from Madrid (Spain/Europe). Half of my daily commute are on secondary roads, where we have just one lane on each direction and the paintings are not very clear (although Autopilot interprets and drives them as good as I do).

I am ready to jump from Tesla to the company that autonomously drive this last 5% I am still driving manually on my daily commute.

Please, no demos, videos, dreams nor future availability, for that we already have the 2016 Tesla FSD demo which at this point we all agree it's just bullshit. Any demo or unavailable technology just goes to the bullshit bag, with the Tesla Demo.

But if you want, we can compare demos to demos. In that case, the 2016 Tesla demo is as impressive as imaginary.
 
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You had me until this point. Some of us go in knowing what to expect but still happily part with our money to buy a Tesla over all other automakers. You seem to think we have Utopian options in an imperfect world, and that catching any company in contradictions, or outright lies, means buying their product is getting fleeced and being played like a fiddle. It might help to remind you that a lot of us ordered and took delivery of our first Teslas before any AP hardware was even on a Tesla.

In my view, you need to have a broader view, and not throw out the baby with the bathwater -- while still articulating the other good points you make.

While you may say jokingly "Like how many times do i have to be right?" (under your avatar) -- I say in reply: “There is a grain of truth in every joke,” or “a joke is truth wrapped in a smile.” Sigmund Freud suggested that jokes were true, serving two purposes: aggression (such as sarcasm) or to expose unconscious desires (to be right all the time!?).

In my view, it's time to come down from your high horse. I enjoyed your thorough analysis but not everything is black and white and a lot of us buy and enjoy our Teslas and don't feel fleeced or gullible at all, even with delays, things not coming to fruition, etc. In fact, 90% of us would even "buy again" -- more than any other automaker! I guess in your view there's a lot of gullible people being fleeced by Tesla, since you have to be right, many times over. But maybe Elon means well and has no mens rea? That's what I think also knowing the road to hell is paved with good intentions, so I cut Elon slack (but left FSD unchecked when I ordered my last one). Could I be wrong many times over? Of course. Will my next purchase be another Tesla? At this time, yes, since the competition is so full of crap when it comes to their desire to build long range EVs and comparable fast charging networks that they make Elon look like Mother Teresa, and that's not an easy task, as you thoroughly point out.

This is a great post Canuck. I will say that I believe there are a LOT of gullible people out there...or perhaps just folks who are only minimally informed (on most subjects I suppose). I tend to be one of those guys who over researches almost every item I buy that has long term use. In discussions with friends and family it is apparent I am in the TINY minority in this regard. Heck, many (even Tesla owners) often buy something as expensive as a car w/o even test driving it.

The end result is people purchase something on a general "impression" of how it works and are often disappointed (and can feel "cheated") when their impression proves to be false. In our "Facebook" world, I can see someone latching on to some Musk soundbite and then when that doesn't turn out to be true, they are bummed.
 
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Its amazing how people read Elon's post but don't see the hype.

It's a typo. Hype should be spelled "hope", and us old dudes with years of experience hearing Elon know that. He is filled with hope for the future of us all. We know it's not going to happen in his hopeful time frame. It never has. But he has hope, and that gives us hope. And it gives us fantastic cars, battery backup and solar, the Big Freakin' Rocket, plans for space travel. Come along and dream with us.