Elon's Model 3 Deception

[McRat]

Tesla often issues 'forward-looking', aka wildly optimistic, information about their goals.

OK, sometimes they come up short (cough 762hp cough), but they also stun the holy crap out of you sometimes. 10.x quarter mile ET's in a 4 door family car that is 'green' technology. AutoPilot. OTA updates and upgrades. And of course, the 120 kW SuperCharger network.

Many of Tesla's achievements were seen as impossible by educated automotive journalists. But they happened.

What did I see last night?

1) Tesla is not ready for mass production. Information was limited as to exact feature list, pricing, no EPA official data, no crash data, etc.
2) Tesla is ready to make Model 3's for retail customers very soon.
3) The Model 3 will have >300 miles of range.
4) There are still plans for a $35k version (this is something I thought they would have to drop).
5) Elon still struggles with public speaking. I doubt that will change, and shame on the aholes who are ragging on him about it.
6) The Model 310 is going to be a bargain.
7) 'Forward-looking'...

 

[hmmm]

Louis Litt must remember to take a deep breath every now and then, picture yourself on a relaxing sandy beach ... nobody's out to get you ...

I just had a mud bath visual. Thanks a lot.

 

[calisnow]

I think the $35k base model is fine, price-wise. But you have to admit the options above that are hardly great value.

I don't mind arguing with you because your points are well reasoned even if I disagree - so here's more argument from the other side. I invest for a living - I'm a classic vulture/bottom-feeder value guy. One of my pet peeves is that most middle class and working class folks do not understand the time value of money, and sacrificing something now ($5K for autopilot) for increased future benefit (hundreds if not thousands of hours of much reduced fatigue and stress while driving combined with lower risk of fatality) - and I think $100K for a self driving 100D with an unlimited lifetime fuel privilege is one of the all time great bargains in history.

Now chop that in half, take away almost nothing of real value except the supercharging - and this is Model 3 is the best deal since the Model T. If it had air shocks and a HEPA filter I might get rid of my S's now.

-Autopilot / FSD. $5,000 for autopilot is in my opinion a fantastic value (and $8K for FSD is the bargain of the millenium assuming it comes to fruition) - although that does depend on how much one drives. Maybe in the future Tesla could/would move to a SAAS subscription model, but for now it's cash. It's very cheap for what you get if you place any value at all on your time and on reducing stress levels and fatigue. It's one of the greatest bargains in the history of tech! That's not an exaggeration! Here's a simplified example. Apply an hourly value to using autopilot vs steering yourself. I personally place probably $20+ per hour value on this in its current state. If it was truly Level 5 I'd go for $30+ per hour (still cheaper than a chauffeur - and it's on demand, while still getting to use my own car instead of an Uber). Let's say Joe Sixpack gets only $5 per hour utility for autopilot. Say Joe drives 150,000 miles over the life of his car (maybe much much longer - I think EV's will make ownership periods go even longer than they are today for ICE due to low maintenance) and only half of those miles are autopilot conditions (generous - again I think the % of autopilot miles will get higher and higher as the capability of the system increases). So - 75,000 miles. Average speed 40 mph (number I picked out of the air). That's almost $10,000 value before you do any discounted cash flow analysis taking into account the time value of money. It's easy to make that $10K number be $20K or $30K or more.

-100 miles of additional range for $9K is a STEAL.

-Premium package at $5K - you don't need this but if you do - how is it a rip-off? It's quite a lot for the money. You're getting leather seats (zero actual benefit except in one's mind), premium audio, higher grade interior materials, wood trim, power seats. The car is already the best semi-autonomus self driving car in the WORLD by a large margin.

As for whether the base setup of the Model 3 is sufficiently luxurious - call me crazy but I think my 2016 S's base sound is almost as good as my 2017's premium audio. Leather is sexy but it is less functional than cloth. Power seats are nice but matter little compared to the smoothness of electric drive and the fatigue reduction of autopilot. The base Model 3 already has front heated seats (I think - right?).

The only luxury options on my S which increased the functionality are the air shocks, the HEPA filter (if you believe the implications of studies of air pollution effects, where air pollution is highest, etc) and the rear power lift gate.

-World class handling never seen at this price according to Kim Reynolds of Motor Trend.

-Electric drive smoothness and throttle response

-World class interior layout (huge windshield, rear glass canopy).

Again - what's the basis of these complaints? What's the ripoff here? If you took away my entire fleet of sports and luxury cars right now, gave me $35K and said I can only choose one car and used cars are not an option - it would be the Model 3 hands down. What else is there? An Accord??? A Camry???

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think the $35k base model is fine, price-wise. But you have to admit the options above that are hardly great value.

I couldn't disagree more. I would take the M3 with premium package at $49K over the BMW 330i at $48K that Car and Driver reviewed any day of the week. The 330i does 5.4 0-60, base is just under $40K but BMW tacks on $8K of options for leather, sunroof, backup camera (!!) and parking assist, 18" wheel, heated front seat and nav. At $49K the M3 blows it away with 5.1 sec 0-60, AEB and collision avoidance even without EAP/FSD, heated seats all around, 15" screen.

 

[calisnow]

...In recent times I've actually been driving more ICE than BEV. Go figure. The novelty certainly can wear off.

I must know - what ICE are you driving and why do you prefer it to your Tesla?

 

[Shock-On-T]

First, I agree with you. However, I've heard the mantra "Range is king" or "Get the largest battery you can afford" over and over again. For an outsider, there's no doubt a mixed message coming from the community as a whole. I don't think it comes from ill intent, it's just that there is a wide range of needs. Neither a Ford F1500 nor a Corvette are perfect for everyone, because the differences are completely obvious as are the matching use cases. With an invisible battery and a tech that most people have zero experience with, it becomes confusing.

The people who say range is king are the ones who can afford a $100K - $150K Model S.
Trust me, I have a 75D with range about 220 miles and it is plenty.
Every day starts at 90% and most days I get home with over 70%.
If I start a road trip at 100% I'll be 70% by the first supercharger/toilet break. Too easy!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I couldn't disagree more. I would take the M3 with premium package at $49K over the BMW 330i at $48K that Car and Driver reviewed any day of the week. The 330i does 5.4 0-60, base is just under $40K but BMW tacks on $8K of options for leather, sunroof, backup camera (!!) and parking assist, 18" wheel, heated front seat and nav. At $49K the M3 blows it away with 5.1 sec 0-60, AEB and collision avoidance even without EAP/FSD, heated seats all around, 15" screen.

We are all certainly entitled to our opinion, but personally I stand by my view that relative to the base price of $35k, which is good value, the options above that base price are not as good value - they are expensive and extensively bundled (meaning even small things require big buys) for the class they are in.

As said, not everyone in this category is looking to buy a loaded car. For them, the options and option bundles are rather expensive, if they'd just like some particular smaller feature. And the alternative color basic paint as well as EAP are expensive no matter how one looks at it.

 

[mhan00]

The people who say range is king are the ones who can afford a $100K - $150K Model S.
Trust me, I have a 75D with range about 220 miles and it is plenty.
Every day starts at 90% and most days I get home with over 70%.
If I start a road trip at 100% I'll be 70% by the first supercharger/toilet break. Too easy!

To add to your point, I see a ton of 60 and 75 badged S and X's around me in PV and the South Bay in SoCal. Not everyone feels the need to get the biggest battery, especially in areas that don't have extreme cold. It's a little strange to me people are pricing out the 3 as if every box needs to be ticked for it to be a viable car.

 

[hockeythug]

Model S owners complained that this was going to better than their cars so Musk had to gimp it.

 

[Waiting4M3]

To add to your point, I see a ton of 60 and 75 badged S and X's around me in PV and the South Bay in SoCal. Not everyone feels the need to get the biggest battery, especially in areas that don't have extreme cold. It's a little strange to me people are pricing out the 3 as if every box needs to be ticked for it to be a viable car.

Why do you find it strange that others would tick more boxes? Why do you care? Why do some people feel the need to bash others opinion that they would like to get the long range version?

Maybe it's just envy that those will get their cars 1st?

 

[bonnie]

Sorry, Bonnie, as much as I love your well-spoken comments, you are wrong in one important aspect: the OP didn't cite speculations from the forum or other questionable sources, the four bullet points he cited were quotes from Elon himself!

Sure, much might have had to change for various reasons, but I can fully understand he OP's disappointment. I am a realist enough to not have believed all these quotes at face value when they were uttered, but the notions behind them I thought were still Elon's goals - that imho he missed. I think I will still go through with my reservation (even though I now know that I will have to wait even longer than I had feared), but my enthusiasm is slowly waning. Let's hope that the electric BMW 3-series doesn't hit the road in late 2018 as well, otherwise I will certainly be tempted...

No need to apologize for disagreeing with me. 'Cause I'm not going to apologize for disagreeing with YOU.

The issue isn't whether Elon said it or not - it's what the OP expected based on an interpretation of Elon's remarks. It's ALL interpretation or speculation, based on what he heard and subsequent chatter around here.

"Everyone took this to mean", "Questionable ... sure [these things] are amazing, but", "Not much diff than an S, except [this] and [this]", etc. You surely see my point. Expectations get set higher by conversation on this forum that isn't clarified to call out 'hey, this is MY opinion' to help new forum members.

I'm not defending Tesla here or bashing the OP. I'm only asking that we think about what we type.​

 

[calisnow]

We are all certainly entitled to our opinion, but personally I stand by my view that relative to the base price of $35k, which is good value, the options above that base price are not as good value - they are expensive and extensively bundled (meaning even small things require big buys) for the class they are in.

As said, not everyone in this category is looking to buy a loaded car. For them, the options and option bundles are rather expensive, if they'd just like some particular smaller feature. And the alternative color basic paint as well as EAP are expensive no matter how one looks at it.

I'll grant you the point on bundling - it's true that you can't buy options alone. But EAP - I still don't see why you think it's expensive at $5K.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I must know - what ICE are you driving and why do you prefer it to your Tesla?

I'm not even sure preference is the right word here, sometimes we are just being driven by different priorities and emotions. I won't waste space here discussing subjective details, which are irrelevant. Sometimes I need to take an ICE, but other times an ICE has something that I feel like driving that day.

I think the wider lesson is not to apply our own priorities and emotions to other people, as they may genuinely differ - they are not ignorant or wrong, those people, they may just genuinely value very different things than we, and even then again value different things at other stages in their life...

I have seen and indeed personally felt many a people being bitten by the BEV bug and chanting the never ICE mantra, yet some of those people - myself included - actually do return to ICE or PHEV or somesuch in some capacity after the hubris wears off. And probably even a larger group of people don't see this as either-or from the get go at all, they never are or will be bitten by that BEV bug in the first place. Then again, all of these people might still be potential BEV users in the future, just genuinely don't care about many of the things we here might feel are strong points of BEVs, but could still find a BEV a suitable solution if their individual needs are met, whatever they may be...

The point is: people genuinely are different, they have different priorities and emotions. They are not automatically ignorant or having the wrong priorities if they are not gushing about the exact same things as we are.

Model 3's 0-60 is being quoted here a lot. No doubt it is a strong point. Yet often these comments completely ignore the fact that the number is meaningless to a lot of buyers.

 

[Shock-On-T]

FSD hardware was announced during reveal part 1. Elon clearly said afterwards that reveal part 1 is over, wait for part 2's next level.

The steering controls and system aren't much different than Model S.

Here's a 33.5k MRSP BMW 3-series, which would probably be lower at a dealer:
Build Your Own - BMW USA
It has better rims, leatherette interior, plus tons of standard tech gadgets, etc:
Home - BMW North America

But it's not electric.
The ultimate luxury is electric drive. A Rolls-Royce is louder, less responsive and less smooth.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

But it's not electric.
The ultimate luxury is electric drive. A Rolls-Royce is louder, less responsive and less smooth.

The ultimate luxury for you may be electric drive. The trick is to realize, this does not apply to all people. It might not even apply to most people. And I guarantee you, for some people the ultimate luxury is that Rolls or a Maybach, not its drivetrain.

That doesn't mean BEV can't be a great and the future solution for most or all people, but it may be that for completely different reasons than you in particular think.

 

[mickificki]

we're upgrading from an ILX, so really anything "better" than that will be an improvement. We currently have leather and power heated seats and tech package too (which is a joke), but we were able to get the car for a total of around $25k a few years ago.

Filling up for me takes 15 minutes at Costco. I cannot stand waiting there, watching some numbskull spend five minutes trying to figure out how to use a freaking credit card. Ugh.

Tesla, pull right in to your house, plug it in. By tomorrow morning full charge.

Done. No more morons at Costco.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Expectations get set higher by conversation on this forum that isn't clarified to call out 'hey, this is MY opinion' to help new forum members.

Sometimes IMO expectations need to be set higher (or, equally, at times lower). It is not just about opinions, it is about research.

If only a manufacturer is allowed to dictate the customer's expectations on whatever whim is currently useful for their business plans, our ability to plan consumption of said products is greatly impaired. Manufacturer is biased towards their own goals, consumers are biased towards their own needs. These goals and needs are not always fully compatible.

You may not agree, but I actually feel the list OP gathered about Elon's messages is very telling of Tesla's Model 3 plans current and past, probably more so than Tesla would even want at this stage. IMO that info can and should be digested by the community and generate analysis that will help purchase decisions. For example, some of those tidbits are sure to be hints of future changes.

For example, it is in Tesla's interest to say no HUD is coming. That does not necessarily mean no HUD is coming. It may also mean it is just in Tesla's interest to not tell us yet. And if so, and a HUD matters to a member of the community, then that conversation is creating a valuable service to that member.

I am the first to admit great uncertainty surrounds such analysis and speculation. It is the nature of the beast.

 

[zenmaster]

I couldn't disagree more. I would take the M3 with premium package at $49K over the BMW 330i at $48K that Car and Driver reviewed any day of the week. The 330i does 5.4 0-60, base is just under $40K but BMW tacks on $8K of options for leather, sunroof, backup camera (!!) and parking assist, 18" wheel, heated front seat and nav. At $49K the M3 blows it away with 5.1 sec 0-60, AEB and collision avoidance even without EAP/FSD, heated seats all around, 15" screen.

But one wouldn't compare the 330i with the 49k Model 3. The comparison would obviously be with something like the $48k 340i (Home - BMW North America) with the $49K Model 3.

The last 3 series I owned was a $53k 2013 Activehybrid 3 MSport, 0-60 5s, 155mph limit, HUD, bird's eyeview + sideview cameras, Harman Kardon Logic 7 stereo w/ 16 speakers, HD Radio, "comfort access" keyless, Satellite radio, leather, heated seats, 19" M wheels awhile back. At the time, the non-hybrid 335i was perhaps $4k cheaper for all those same features. I am wondering if Tesla would offer those features in a Model 3 for the same price or even at all?

 

[bonnie]

Sometimes IMO expectations need to be set higher (or, equally, at times lower). It is not just about opinions, it is about research.

If only a manufacturer is allowed to dictate the customer's expectations on whatever whim is currently useful for their business plans, our ability to plan consumption of said products is greatly impaired. Manufacturer is biased towards their own goals, consumers are biased towards their own needs. These goals and needs are not always fully compatible.

You may not agree, but I actually feel the list OP gathered about Elon's messages is very telling of Tesla's Model 3 plans current and past, probably more so than Tesla would even want at this stage. IMO that info can and should be digested by the community and generate analysis that will help purchase decisions. For example, some of those tidbits are sure to be hints of future changes.

For example, it is in Tesla's interest to say no HUD is coming. That does not necessarily mean no HUD is coming. It may also mean it is just in Tesla's interest to not tell us yet. And if so, and a HUD matters to a member of the community, then that conversation is creating a valuable service to that member.

I am the first to admit great uncertainty surrounds such analysis and speculation. It is the nature of the beast.

So are you saying you don't think people should clarify speculation? Surely not. That's all I'm saying. No need to take my point in a direction that was never intended.

 

[Shock-On-T]

The ultimate luxury for you may be electric drive. The trick is to realize, this does not apply to all people. It might not even apply to most people. And I guarantee you, for some people the ultimate luxury is that Rolls or a Maybach, not its drivetrain.

That doesn't mean BEV can't be a great and the future solution for most or all people, but it may be that for completely different reasons than you in particular think.

Yes it's all subjective, but the Rolls still has to got to the gas station like a Camry.