Another reason might be that it is linked with the start of the D-models deliveries, as Swiss buyers are very keen on four-wheel-drive versions. I know a few people that were holding off buying a Tesla due to the RWD nature of the older versions.
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Had to cross post this, as it belongs here more than into the Short Term thread:
So looks like we have been missing something with the counting we have done, the only country I can think of could be in fact the UK, because we get very delayed official info from there and the RHD P85D was batched/released not so long ago as far as I can remember. Hope we´ll hear something about that at the Q3 call. When will new registrations data from UK be published?
This is the video the quote comes from: Tesla Motors - JB Straubel - University of Nevada, Reno - 10/11/15 - YouTube
So looks like we have been missing something with the counting we have done, the only country I can think of could be in fact the UK, because we get very delayed official info from there and the RHD P85D was batched/released not so long ago as far as I can remember. Hope we´ll hear something about that at the Q3 call. When will new registrations data from UK be published?
This is the video the quote comes from: Tesla Motors - JB Straubel - University of Nevada, Reno - 10/11/15 - YouTube
mmd
Active Member
Yes, it is very confusing. I just checked the SMMT link on the google charts here:
New 65-plate takes UK new car registrations to September record - SMMT
If you click the download link at the bottom, you see that Tesla is not listed. So, we see in row 51:
Other Imports : September 351, year-to-date 1597.
Even if we assume all 351 imported in September were Tesla Model S, it leads to a Q3 European total of 3644 (3293+351). Is JB saying that US sales were less than that in Q3?
I don't know how seriously we should take these off-the-cuff remarks from Tesla execs. There have been cases in the past that such comments haven't turned out to be true (like Model X feature promises). IMHO, best to ignore these unless these appear in shareholder letters.
mmd
Active Member
Yes, that's the whole issue I have with these off-the-cuff remarks. There is no clarification on what data are being compared. Like when Elon says "Model S demand up by 49% after X reveal", is it for a day or a week or a month? And compared to what reference? IMHO, , such vague data are kind of unexpected from engineers.
That's why I think, it is best to ignore these, as the statements are too unclear to mean anything.
Edit: Besides APAC, Tesla also sold 35 in Australia in Sept; 309 ytd. So, about 100 more in Q3 outside NA+Europe+Asia.
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I don't think we (as investors or traders) should ignore such remarks. And this is not something Elon said - it was JB. ;-) Elon tends to overestimate and overstate such things but not JB.
Here's a few thoughts on this:
First, could it be that there are cars sold at Tilburg which are not registered in Europe, but instead shipped to Russia and neighboring countries in Eurasia? I'm thinking about the fact that there's Russian and other Euro-Asian customers and Tesla fan clubs who somehow seem to get their cars, too, although there's no stores or service-centers in Russia, Kazhakstan, Aserbajdzan, and so on.
Second, it could well be that JB was refering to current orders, and not refering to the deliveries ytd. So, if it's true that we'll be looking at more Q4 deliveries in Europe than in the U.S., that would equate to more than 5,000 Model S delivered in Europe in Q4. (given that average U.S. deliveries are around 5,000 cars per quarter and that will stay there for Q4).
Here's a few thoughts on this:
First, could it be that there are cars sold at Tilburg which are not registered in Europe, but instead shipped to Russia and neighboring countries in Eurasia? I'm thinking about the fact that there's Russian and other Euro-Asian customers and Tesla fan clubs who somehow seem to get their cars, too, although there's no stores or service-centers in Russia, Kazhakstan, Aserbajdzan, and so on.
Second, it could well be that JB was refering to current orders, and not refering to the deliveries ytd. So, if it's true that we'll be looking at more Q4 deliveries in Europe than in the U.S., that would equate to more than 5,000 Model S delivered in Europe in Q4. (given that average U.S. deliveries are around 5,000 cars per quarter and that will stay there for Q4).
Benz
Active Member
JB Straubel: "In fact in Europe we sell more vehicles today even than we do in North America. This has been an incredibly strong market with the price of petroleum as high as it is, relative to prices we enjoy here in the US."
I don't think that we should ignore this statement.
I think he was talking about NEW reservations and orders coming from Europe. They simply have increased compared to the level that we have seen in the past. Actual deliveries of these new reservations and orders will be realised in 2016.
I think that this doesn't necessarily mean that the rate of new reservations and orders coming from North America have decreased. They could have increased as well. But not so much as they have increased in Europe.
My conclusion is that we just might see that the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2016 to have increased substantially (compared to the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2015).
Keep in mind that he did say that on October 11th 2015. Meaning that the situation could be different after that date, because new reservations and orders coming from North America could suddenly increase even more than those coming from Europe.
I don't think that we should ignore this statement.
I think he was talking about NEW reservations and orders coming from Europe. They simply have increased compared to the level that we have seen in the past. Actual deliveries of these new reservations and orders will be realised in 2016.
I think that this doesn't necessarily mean that the rate of new reservations and orders coming from North America have decreased. They could have increased as well. But not so much as they have increased in Europe.
My conclusion is that we just might see that the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2016 to have increased substantially (compared to the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2015).
Keep in mind that he did say that on October 11th 2015. Meaning that the situation could be different after that date, because new reservations and orders coming from North America could suddenly increase even more than those coming from Europe.
Yeah, that makes the most sense to me. And I also wouldn´t worry about the US plateauing, as even California had its the best month of Model S sales in Sep (judging from applications for clean vehicle incentives I posted in the Short Term thread a while ago). And I believe the Auto Pilot publicity will increase demand even more.
No. Everyone who recently ordered in Europe will be delivered in 2015. If, like you say, he is talking about recent new orders (let's say last 2 weeks), we should certainly see the bump already in november/december. Which we will need to approach guidance anyway. Another possibility is that sales in the US have flattened and Asia/Australia is picking up the slack instead of Europe.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I guess we might not see 1400+ monthly deliveries for Tesla Gen II vehicles from Norway in quite a while.
[SIZE=+1]Party time is over for Norway's oil capital - and the country[/SIZE]
In Norway's oil capital Stavanger, house prices are falling, unemployment is rising and orders of champagne and sushi sprinkled with gold are down - a taste of things to come for the rest of the country as slumping crude prices hit the economy.
The oil-producing nation used to be the exception in Europe. At the height of the financial crisis in 2009, unemployment reached just 2.7 percent; when other nations have had to cut welfare spending, Oslo could rely on its $856-billion sovereign wealth fund to plug any budget deficit.
But now it is joining the rest of Europe in its economic slump as oil prices have halved. GDP growth is expected to stagnate at 1.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. And the government expects to make its first ever net withdrawal from the fund next year as state oil revenues decline with crude prices.
"It is a new era for the Norwegian economy. We are no longer in a league of our own," Governor Oeystein Olsen said when the central bank unexpectedly cut rates to 0.75 percent on Sept. 24 to support a slowing economy.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-norway-oil-slump-idUSKCN0SA11220151016
[SIZE=+1]Party time is over for Norway's oil capital - and the country[/SIZE]
In Norway's oil capital Stavanger, house prices are falling, unemployment is rising and orders of champagne and sushi sprinkled with gold are down - a taste of things to come for the rest of the country as slumping crude prices hit the economy.
The oil-producing nation used to be the exception in Europe. At the height of the financial crisis in 2009, unemployment reached just 2.7 percent; when other nations have had to cut welfare spending, Oslo could rely on its $856-billion sovereign wealth fund to plug any budget deficit.
But now it is joining the rest of Europe in its economic slump as oil prices have halved. GDP growth is expected to stagnate at 1.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. And the government expects to make its first ever net withdrawal from the fund next year as state oil revenues decline with crude prices.
"It is a new era for the Norwegian economy. We are no longer in a league of our own," Governor Oeystein Olsen said when the central bank unexpectedly cut rates to 0.75 percent on Sept. 24 to support a slowing economy.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-norway-oil-slump-idUSKCN0SA11220151016
Thanks. So, lower Q3 numbers this year may not be a one off case and weakness will continue?
Benz
Active Member
Yes, I agree that a certain portion of the recent orders will be delivered in December 2015 (that's the short term). But there is more to it. This increase in orders will just continue, it's not just a temporary thing, and it's not very likely that it will decrease again, I think. 2016 will be different, actually every subsequant year will be better than it's previous year (that's the long term).
My conclusion is that we just might see that the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2016 to have increased substantially (compared to the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2015).
Yeah, the cost of the P90D is now generally too expensive for a family with upper middle class incomes. An engineer and a nurse for instance could buy the P85 if they stretched a little. Now they need to "settle" for the S70D. The interesting part is the Model X vs the Cayenne. A base X85D (using the $5000 extra compared to an S) costs about 70% of a base Cayenne Diesel with a downrated engine to 211hp. Of course they don't sell that many X5's, Cayennes and it's likes in Norway. Mostly RAV4s and Mazda CX-5 in the SUV segment, which starts at about half the price of an X85D.
I'm more curious about the tiny minivan market or 7 person carriers. A Ford Galaxy with 4wd and automatic is about 85% of the price of the X85D, and then it's a fairly small stretch to a Model X, especially considering free long-range travel and other incentives.
Tesla's service reputation isn't the best in Norway as well which might affect som fence sitters. Mostly due to 6-9 months wait for non-essential repairs.
TLDR: Yes Norways Tesla sales will be lower than earlier years at least until Model 3 arrives.
Cobos
Sebastian, thanks again for the updates on Danish legislation. Just a quick question: Can we expect deliveries to Denmark to skyrocket in December then? (given that the new sales tax comes into effect for cars bought/(registered?) after 01/01/2016?)
Tesla leaves other Luxury Cars behind, in Switzerland
Tidbits from an article in the NZZ am Sonntag, 10.8.2015
;
From Jan to September 2015 Tesla sold in Switzerland 1'151 Model S, almost twice as much as
Mercedes S-Class (641),
further behind:
Maserati Ghibli (424)
Jaguar XF (279)
BMW 6-series (237)
Audi A7 (180)
Porsche Panamera (120)
Audi A8 (86)
BMW 7-series (63)
In the same timeframe 4.1% of all new cars registered were EV's (Hypbrids included).
This is amazing per se, but alsonoteworthy within the actual political context. In the new swiss parliament (elections of this weekend) the green parties lost a total of 13 seats, down to 16 (of a total of 246 seats), whereas the right wing parties gained big +11, resulting in a majority. IMO this could indicate that the Model S is appealing because of its qualities over ICE and not because of the "green" image.
Tidbits from an article in the NZZ am Sonntag, 10.8.2015
;
From Jan to September 2015 Tesla sold in Switzerland 1'151 Model S, almost twice as much as
Mercedes S-Class (641),
further behind:
Maserati Ghibli (424)
Jaguar XF (279)
BMW 6-series (237)
Audi A7 (180)
Porsche Panamera (120)
Audi A8 (86)
BMW 7-series (63)
In the same timeframe 4.1% of all new cars registered were EV's (Hypbrids included).
This is amazing per se, but alsonoteworthy within the actual political context. In the new swiss parliament (elections of this weekend) the green parties lost a total of 13 seats, down to 16 (of a total of 246 seats), whereas the right wing parties gained big +11, resulting in a majority. IMO this could indicate that the Model S is appealing because of its qualities over ICE and not because of the "green" image.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2015/10/19/tesla-zooms-past-bmw-audi-limos-in-europe-zeroing-in-on-mercedes/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix
Pretty good article on how the Model S threatens even the S class in Europe. Funny though they call Norway a socialist country.
Pretty good article on how the Model S threatens even the S class in Europe. Funny though they call Norway a socialist country.
SebastianR
Active Member
Yes, I do expect a record for Danish deliveries in Q4. In fact, I talked to a guy at a party who was biting his behind that he didn't order a Model S before the deadline. I think next year will be interesting: I do expect the S70D / S85 to do moderately well(badly). I don't expect any P90Ds to be sold at all (maybe one or two but not really many more).
But they are. Sort of...
As is probably Sweden in Forbe's eyes...
(In Sweden we even had a minister of commerce who in the late 90's named Normay "The last soviet state")
Benz
Active Member
According to Best Selling Cars Blog: "Tesla up 130%" (that is mentioned at the end of the first paragraph).
That's regarding car sales in Europe in August 2015.
I am not a member so I cannot see the actual corresponding numbers.
Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015...5-now-with-top-340-all-models-and-all-brands/
That's regarding car sales in Europe in August 2015.
I am not a member so I cannot see the actual corresponding numbers.
Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015...5-now-with-top-340-all-models-and-all-brands/
RobStark
Well-Known Member
But they are. Sort of...
As is probably Sweden in Forbe's eyes...
(In Sweden we even had a minister of commerce who in the late 90's named Normay "The last soviet state")
American Conservatives- European Liberals confuse socialism with the welfare state. Or know the difference and just use "socialism" as a pejorative.
Socialism means state ownership of the means of production and distribution.
Even in the US schools,police,dams,hospitals,parks are in large part controlled and operated by the government.
81% of Nevada land is owned by the US Federal Government.
66% of Utah land is owned by the US Federal Government.
62% of Alaska land is owned by the US Federal Government.
The US is not the land of anarchistic laissez faire capitalism as caricatured by many in Europe.
Attaching a large welfare state with corresponding tax rates to a mixed Scandinavian economy that is mostly a capitalist economy does not make it socialist.
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Can't you just buy a used 2014-15 Model S from another EU country and register it at the lower tax rate in Denmark before the year ends?
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