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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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And here is the problem... Was it not that one or two Model S was imported before the European deliveries started? If I remember correct they had to send the cars back to US to get warranty repairs.
Yes, but if we're talking about CPO cars, sold by Tesla Norway, I think they would honor the warranty.

Of course, when we're talking about US Nissan Leafs, they're certainly not sold by Nissan Norway. They are sold by independent dealers, and you get no factory warranty. Nissan Norway doesn't want these cars on norwegian roads, but there's little they can do. Transferring this to Tesla - do we think Tesla wants these crippled Model S with the US charge port on Norwegian roads? I'm thinking: Definitely not. They could potentially undermine Tesla's reputation.

And if US Model S were to be imported into Norway by independent dealers and no factory warranty, I think we'd be talking about entirely different prices. Maybe a 25% drop from the previous numbers I gave. And a dealer would have to be insane to take on the risk.
 
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Tesla has told me something different. There is a large back order of latest revision regular(non-performance) RWD drive units. Meaning there are none to be had. These are mostly for replacing older version drive units in older cars like mine. It appears the older version drive units have a lifetime expectancy of about 25,000 miles (in my case anyway, on my 3rd drive unit with it due to be replaced). At that point they usually begin to develop a milling noise. This noise and associated drive line slop is mostly to do with a condition where current is "leaking" out from the rotor, through the bearings. This damages the bearings over time.

My assumption is that because they now fully understand these drive unit failures, they have fixed most of the flaws in the latest revision. Therefore they would rather not just put a re-furb drive unit, but go with a new latest and greatest one. If it were an emergency (i.e. total drive unit failure), then they would throw a refurb in my car just to get me back on the road. So for the time being I am patiently waiting for a new batch of RWD non-performance drive units to be made. I am sure they will be needing to be building these things for a long time.

Edit: I also just want to point out that I am not trying to scare anyone. Model S owners relax, Tesla seems to be on top of this.
 
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Tesla has told me something different. There is a large back order of latest revision regular(non-performance) RWD drive units. Meaning there are none to be had. These are mostly for replacing older version drive units in older cars like mine. It appears the older version drive units have a lifetime expectancy of about 25,000 miles (in my case anyway, on my 3rd drive unit with it due to be replaced). At that point they usually begin to develop a milling noise. This noise and associated drive line slop is mostly to do with a condition where current is "leaking" out from the rotor, through the bearings. This damages the bearings over time.

My assumption is that because they now fully understand these drive unit failures, they have fixed most of the flaws in the latest revision. Therefore they would rather not just put a re-furb drive unit, but go with a new latest and greatest one. If it were an emergency (i.e. total drive unit failure), then they would throw a refurb in my car just to get me back on the road. So for the time being I am patiently waiting for a new batch of RWD non-performance drive units to be made. I am sure they will be needing to be building these things for a long time.

Edit: I also just want to point out that I am not trying to scare anyone. Model S owners relax, Tesla seems to be on top of this.
Trying to give you the benefit of being wrong and not malicous. My model S 85 vin 57xx has over thirty thousand miles. No replacement no problems no extra sounds. Pardon me if I don't believe you

especially in light of your previous post

In my case I feel I have been remarkably lucky. Software bugs aside I have had very few issues, but would be happy to go over them in detail if anyone cared. That said, other cars have had some pretty bad experiences. Taking my car to the service center is a PIA. My car is about to go out of warranty. If I had the problems that others have had with their cars (islandbayy are you listening) I probably would have given up and either traded in for a new Tesla, Lemoned the car if possible, or just take a bath and sell it. My plan is to drive my car until at least 250,000 miles if possible. What really matters is how well it holds up between then and now. How outrageously expensive (or not) it is to get things fixed out of warranty. And how well it maintains range.

After almost 2 years of ownership I am still drunk on the kool-aid, if not more so.
 
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That seems hard to reconcile with the fact that regular non-performance RWD cars had (and continue to have) the shortest delivery time the last few months.

Probably reasonable to assume they are prioritizing new drive unit builds for new car production.

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Trying to give you the benefit of being wrong and not malicous. My model S 85 vin 57xx has over thirty thousand miles. No replacement no problems no extra sounds. Pardon me if I don't believe you

especially in light of your previous post

In my case I feel I have been remarkably lucky. Software bugs aside I have had very few issues, but would be happy to go over them in detail if anyone cared. That said, other cars have had some pretty bad experiences. Taking my car to the service center is a PIA. My car is about to go out of warranty. If I had the problems that others have had with their cars (islandbayy are you listening) I probably would have given up and either traded in for a new Tesla, Lemoned the car if possible, or just take a bath and sell it. My plan is to drive my car until at least 250,000 miles if possible. What really matters is how well it holds up between then and now. How outrageously expensive (or not) it is to get things fixed out of warranty. And how well it maintains range.

After almost 2 years of ownership I am still drunk on the kool-aid, if not more so.

Not trying to be malicious, just being honest. Probably posting on the wrong thread for this. This was more in response to the comment that "that there is some warehouse full of new rear drive units to use up" or something like that. If there are, Tesla is holding them close to their vest. I too am very happy with my model S. The drive units being biggest issue I have had to deal with. Tesla has been excellent about it, and I couldn't ask for anything better from them. My car has never left me stranded. But in my experience is that they go for about 25,000 miles, at least with mine. Then they start to mill... It happens very slowly and is subtle. In fact I really didn't notice it much until I drove another Tesla that didn't make the noise. I had mine in for it's annual and Tesla found the drive unit failing. I still have this failing drive unit in my car, waiting for the new units to be built. The service center recommended this versus another re-furb (BTW the last two were refurbs). It was Tesla's description of the how the drive units fail, not mine. I too plan on keeping my car for 250,000 miles or more. I have full confidence Tesla will keep my car running just fine. I don't think the drive unit woes will be a big deal. Even long after they are out of warranty, they will be easily refurbished (just replace the bearings and get a good grounding wiper on the rotor to keep the current from flowing through the bearings). Hopefully this issue is only on a few early model S. I am glad yours doesn't seem to have the issue. Pass the kool-aid, it's very tasty.

Edit: Full disclosure, I am a Tesla long, heavily weighted in Tesla stock.

Edit2: I do not have or plan on getting the extended warrenty... How's that for confidence in the car. Also, to make it less confusing on drive unit lifetimes.. currently at 49K miles. Original drive unit replaced at 24K miles. Next drive unit replaced 5 miles later. 3rd drive unit still in car need to be replaced.

Edit3: For comparison my last car, A 2008 Honda Civic SI that I bought new, turned out to have a defective set of 3rd gear syncros in the transmission. Honda refused to fix it under warranty, said I didn't know how to shift. That says a lot about who I want to buy a car from

Edit4: I post this stuff because I don't think I would be doing Tesla or Tesla owners any favors by hiding these problems or sweeping them under the rug.
 
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I found May UK registration data, but Tesla is not specified, even though Chevy (1 car) and
Chrysler (4) are. This doesn´t seem fair... There are 184 "other" cars imported from outside
the UK listed - that is our upper bound, but hard to say how many of those are Teslas.

download the May 2015 new car registrations news release and data table


The news release including the table above is interesting though, seems like EVs are on a strong uptrend (not that this is a surprise :) ).
New car registrations grow steadily as ultra-low emission vehicles surge past 10k mark - SMMT
 
Looked up the "other imports" to the UK from the SMMT website:

Oct 2014: 92
Nov 2014: 135
Dec 2014: 225

Jan 2015: 152 (100 estimate for Tesla in our table)
Feb 2015: 34 (!) (30 estimate for Tesla in our table)
Mar 2015: 323 (150 estimate for Tesla in our table)

Apr 2015: 179
May 2015: 184

For total Q1, our estimates were 280 for 509 in the "other imports" category. If we keep this ratio (55%), we get 98 and 101 for Apr/May 2015, so I think I would put 100 for those months. Comments/better ideas to come up with an estimate?!

Update:

From this official table (which only goes up to Q4/14 at this time) which was mentioned in this thread above, we get (numbers in table are cumulative!)

Q4 2014: 194

So that is 43% of the "other imports". As I think that the fraction of Tesla in this category should increase over time, I think the 100 for April/May is an o.k. estimate.
 
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Talking to myself here ;)... Anyway, Switzerland sales for May is out at 70 (would have expected a bit more after 117 in Apr, but still more than Jan+Feb).

That puts Europe total for May at 1062. Jan was 547, Feb 507, so May is more than the sum of those two months! On the other hand, still +1700 to go in June to match Q1. See wiki for details.
 
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So by my figuring - to meet the same delivery numbers as Q1, Tesla needs to deliver 1663 cars in Europe in June vs. the 2358 cars they delivered in March. I like their chances and I'm interested in how much this improves their bottom line based on potentially lower shipping costs/overtime to achieve their numbers.

I would guess that Europe could be a 1200-1500 car market/month for the Model S when Great Britain gets the D versions and some of the smaller markets continue to mature - I think China will have to pitch in more to make the 48-50k of Model S happen in 2015 and 2016.
 
Some numbers for June were posted on the Norwgian EV forum; as of June 13th, there were:

- 191 new Model S registered
- 187 of these were AWD and 4 were RWD

That means that for Tesla, AWD currently has a 98% market share in Norway. (I would be surprised if Tesla still offers a RWD Model S in three months.)
 
Some numbers for June were posted on the Norwgian EV forum; as of June 13th, there were:

- 191 new Model S registered
- 187 of these were AWD and 4 were RWD

That means that for Tesla, AWD currently has a 98% market share in Norway. (I would be surprised if Tesla still offers a RWD Model S in three months.)

Was going to add it to wiki, but you did it already :).

Any idea how this number compares to March 13? Looks like registrations have picked up compared to Apr/May, but not enough to hit Q1 total. (I know the answer is probably within this thread, but don´t have the time to search right now.)

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Gave myself 10 minutes anyway...


Compare percentage of cars delivered in the first half of the last month of Q1/Q2 relative of that month´s total (1140 in Mar, for June assuming same total (1532) for whole Q2 as in Q1):

Q1: 316/1140 = 28%
Q2: 191/(1532-230-346) = 20%

Looks like we are a bit behind. But then, we still have a day to go until 1st half of June ;).
Hope theStreet doesn´t make any FUD out of this...
 
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