Krugerrand
Meow
Not even given Leaf sales, GM should have no trouble selling (the limited number they intend to make) of a 200 mile EV for 30k. And that's really never been seriously in question.
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Exclusive: GM will build Chevy Bolt in Michigan in late 2016
- Thread starter igotzzoom
- Start date
Not even given Leaf sales, GM should have no trouble selling (the limited number they intend to make) of a 200 mile EV for 30k. And that's really never been seriously in question.
True, but with the Volt they had nothing to do yet but really try to sell the public and the internal decision makers within GM on the concept. With the "Bolt" the real engineering staff may already be hard at work on the production car and rather than distract them GM grabbed an old concept shell they had put together earlier and had another team of folks spiff it up for the car show.
This time around GM has more off-the-shelf parts or easily adaptable designs they can reuse but I still don't see them putting a new car together in less than 2 years -- I think they've already started.
One thing I'm looking forward to hearing more about is the use of weight-saving construction techniques in both the Bolt and Model 3. That will be important to efficiency and efficiency means fewer battery cells but alternate construction costs more. There's a balance. The i3 BEV weighs only 2,800 pounds. I'm wondering what, if any, construction materials will be shared between the new Cadillac CT6 being announced in April and the Bolt being announced next week. Likewise, Tesla has to figure out the right balance between possibly cheaper steel and lighter aluminum and other materials.
As I wrote last week. It's now official from GM:
BREAKING: General Motors Confirms Chevrolet Bolt Production
So much for Tesla being first to market with $30-40k long-range EV.
Nissan will match GM in the same timeframe, so will others out of Asia.
More competition...good for the consumers, bad for TSLA's market cap.
I just want to make this clear how Tesla is still treated:
Who is that guy again? Oh yeah, he's the one that signed the bill banning direct sales for Tesla. His statement is so much BS. I'm sorry Tesla is in CA and not in Detroit and the fact that it's way more advanced that the Bolt, but go ahead, act like it's "cutting edge". /sarcasm
OK... is this enough to get everybody past talking about the "It's only a concept!" stuff and focus on the impact to the EV landscape as a whole?
Tesla's plans to produce a $30k-ish EV with 200 mile range in the next couple of years has been seen as a significant game changer and potential tipping point for EV adoption. Nissan might have been closest to eventually being in that space.. but it seemed likely that they might double their range to 150-160 miles, and perhaps not quite as soon.
None of the Big 3 were even on the radar... especially for numbers greater than compliance purposes.
Now, there's another major player that's directly in that market. This is exactly what Elon had hoped to spur.
This is major for lots of reasons... one of them simply to "legitimize" the idea for many.
Except that they aren't long range EVs. They haven't proven it yet. Nissan's is pretty much a 150 mile EPA range EV, which basically makes it a far more acceptable commuter car.
They still have to make them in volume, they still have to figure out real high power DC charging, they still have to figure out how to build a good car. Remember, GM is known as the automaker willing to kill you for < $5.
Breezy
Member
To be fair, GM has not confirmed the start date for production. However given the accuracy of the rumours/intentional leaks to date, it's reasonable to conclude that late 2016 is the actual target.
For some a PR or statement from GM (or other large car makers) is probably never enough. In my opinion, that's more then enough since the same leaks/sources (now confirmed by GM) mentioned dates:
Nissan already confirmed (and re-confimed at NAIAS 2015) launching a direct competitor in the same timeframe. German and Asian car makers (including two new entrants from Asia with global ambitions, not allowed to name them) will follow by 2017-2018 with similar specs and prices.
Breezy
Member
Agreed. Even once dates are announced, the question becomes "Yeah, but can they meet that schedule?" I'm sure someone will be along soon to ask "Where are they going to get the batteries?"
Agreed. Even once dates are announced, the question becomes "Yeah, but can they meet that schedule?" I'm sure someone will be along soon to ask "Where are they going to get the batteries?"
The batteries will come from LG Chem (that's basically confirmed 99%) in the US. Since they initially only plan to sell a few 10k cars/year I think that's more than enough with options to ramp production as demand increases.
PS: It has not been decided whether they will build the international variants (e.g. for Opel with an Opel badge, Chevrolet is withdrawing from Europe) in Michigan. If not, international Bolt versions might get their batteries directly from LG plants in South Korea or elsewhere in Asia. LG like their competitor Samsung is building smaller battery plants (especially in Asia, several are under construction at the moment) next to their customer's sites. LG might have a huge ramp-up if they can win Nissan as a customer (Renault is already confirmed as a battery customer for future EVs, maybe Nissan will follow soon...).
Yeah. I think this is a good thing. I'm fairly confident once the Model 3 is revealed, people will plainly see it's a totally different animal than the Bolt or the Leaf. Comparisons will still be made on basis of price-point, range and market timing, but I think they'll appeal to different buyers.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Well for the record, I always expected them to release something (at the very least they need a compliance car to replace the Spark EV), but I don't expect that car to bear much resemblance to the concept (even though it might share the same name).
And I don't expect it to come before 2017 (Model 3 planned launch), as if they follow the Volt timeline it'll be 2019 when it's released (assuming it's not a conversion like the Spark EV). This announcement notably has no production date promise, so the argument about if it'll come out before the Model 3 is still ongoing (from another thread, my guess on order is Leaf 2, Model 3, Bolt). And the release says "GM-estimated 200 miles of range", so I think people expecting 200 miles EPA range will be disappointed.
Using the Volt timeline is not a great model--keep in mind that there was a pretty significant event in GM history that occurred between the Volt concept launch and the Volt production roll-out.
I'm at an SAE meeting and a GM presenter stated that the 200-mile figure is a "window label" number meaning EPA.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
As far as I can tell, the Volt timeline was not affected by the bankruptcy (GM even said that themselves). A 4 year development timeline from concept to final production is already a very rushed timeline:
Year 1-2: production-intent body/architecture design and battery cell selection/testing, battery pack lab testing
Year 3: mule testing of battery pack/drivetrain and finalizing production-ready design (engineering)
Year 4: pre-production testing and assembly line testing
Unless it is true that they have started work on this car for 2 full years before now or they are just going to do a conversion, I don't really see a release at end of 2016. LG Chem says their chemistry is not finalized yet as of late last year, so at most GM will be testing prototype cells at this point, not the final cells and certainly not a final battery pack.
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