Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!

[diplomat33]

In your mind, does "FSD" mean the car can drive itself "in almost all circumstances" (as the current description says) without a human paying attention and being ready to take over at any moment? Or even without a human in the car at all, as would be required for the Tesla Network ride sharing service?

I define "FSD" as the software package that was on the website and that many paid for that when enabled will be a self-driving version of AP. I believe the first public release of "FSD" will be the first option you mention, where the car can drive itself in most circumstances without the human needing to pay attention and being ready to take over at any moment. And just like with AP, I am assuming "FSD" will improve with software updates over time. Eventually, I believe "FSD" will improve with software updates to become the version with the Tesla Network where you can summon your car without a driver in it. But that will come much later.

Basically, I think "FSD" will start around the first option you mention when it is first released to the public and eventually become the second option where you can summon your car driverless.

 

[DJP31]

Maybe NoA is part of self driving feature? I mean, it is pretty close if you take away the confirmation and the nags. I guess it isn’t reliable enough. Maybe in 6 months.

On/off ramp is an EAP feature not FSD.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

I’ll be happy if FSD appears 5 yrs from now when my kid is 16 and can get a driver’s license.

Using EAP now, I seriously doubt there will be FSD anytime soon.

 

[PhaseWhite]

My 2019 prediction: Tesla will continue to lag behind their own lofty promises but will maintain a large lead over all competitors fielding autonomous features in consumer vehicles.

 

[conman]

Prediction: By the end of 2019, we will have the first of the PSD features... in North America only. PSD being Partial Self Drive, since clearly Full Self Drive is a pipe dream a decade away still. The PSD features will be the ones mentioned by Elon: Traffic lights, stop signs, and roundabouts. There will be extensive stalk confirmation at stop signs... NoA will get unassisted lane change within the next 6 months, and by then the rest of the world will get assisted NoA. If any of you think we'll actually get Full Self Drive any time soon, you need a reality check. The car auto-selecting a parking spot park feature will prove more difficult than they ever imagined and won't be released this year either.

 

[diplomat33]

There will be extensive stalk confirmation at stop signs...

I think you might be drifting into satire here because requiring stalk confirmation for stop signs is clearly ridiculous.

 

[conman]

I think you might be drifting into satire here because requiring stalk confirmation for stop signs is clearly ridiculous.

Not really. It will stop for you, but won't be confident to start again.

 

[Tozz]

I think you might be drifting into satire here because requiring stalk confirmation for stop signs is clearly ridiculous.

Perhaps not to continue driving after the light turns green. After all, autopilot already does this. If you are at a standstill (behind another car that is waiting) for too long you need to press the wattpedal to continue.

 

[diplomat33]

Not really. It will stop for you, but won't be confident to start again.

The only time I could see this maybe being an issue, is at a 4 way stop with no lights, where cars have to take turns going. So yeah, maybe to avoid that tricky "who got to the stop first" situation, the car would ask for a stalk confirmation when it should go. But I still think that Tesla should only release the stop sign functionality when the car can handle it on its own. Requiring stalk confirmation for lane changes is one thing, but asking for stalk confirmation for every little thing like going after a stop sign or traffic light, would be quite silly IMO.

Perhaps not to continue driving after the light turns green. After all, autopilot already does this. If you are at a standstill (behind another car that is waiting) for too long you need to press the wattpedal to continue.

Not sure what you mean by "not to continue driving after the light turns green". When the light turns green, the car should start to move again when the path in front is clear.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33

Are you sure?

Moving after a stop sign or traffic light stop would require understanding of the surrounding traffic situation that was the reason for that stop sign or the traffic light in the first place — such as existence of cross traffic as well as understanding if/where you are turning to after the stop sign or traffic light (which affects the interpretation of said traffic situation).

I find @conman ’s theory plausible. Stopping at a stop sign or traffic light seems plausible at this stage, starting again from it something that could warrant a confirmation until (if) FSD can understand the traffic it seems and decide for itself when it is safe to do so, which seems ways off at this time.

 

[emmz0r]

Stop sign is relatively straight forward.

Stop, wait 3 seconds, then yield logic.

 

[OPRCE]

Between the quotes. Think double entendre.

Have thought double entendre but nothing further occurs. More clues pls ...

 

[chillaban]

I would strongly suspect stop signs would require double confirmation.... confirm to slow to a stop. Confirm to start back up.

There’s no way people would want their cars randomly slowing down for false positive stop signs no matter how slim the chances it would happen.

 

[electronblue]

I would find speed sign recognition much more useful like on AP1. I hope it gets here soon on AP2. Even many of the cheapest cars nowadays have speed sign recognition at least as an option.

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33

Are you sure?

Moving after a stop sign or traffic light stop would require understanding of the surrounding traffic situation that was the reason for that stop sign or the traffic light in the first place — such as existence of cross traffic as well as understanding if/where you are turning to after the stop sign or traffic light (which affects the interpretation of said traffic situation).

I find @conman ’s theory plausible. Stopping at a stop sign or traffic light seems plausible at this stage, starting again from it something that could warrant a confirmation until (if) FSD can understand the traffic it seems and decide for itself when it is safe to do so, which seems ways off at this time.

I would strongly suspect stop signs would require double confirmation.... confirm to slow to a stop. Confirm to start back up.

There’s no way people would want their cars randomly slowing down for false positive stop signs no matter how slim the chances it would happen.

If the system needs a double confirmation then it is definitely not ready for prime time yet. Stopping at a stop sign is pretty critical. No way am I going to wait for the car to give me a prompt and then hit the stalk to confirm that I indeed want to stop at a stop sign. I just need to stop! A confirmation to start again is one thing but the car would definitely need to be able to stop at a stop sign without needing a stalk confirmation.

Auto lane changes in NOA is different because it's more of a higher order operation. Changing lanes to pass slow traffic is optional. It's a judgment call. So it's something that you can ask the driver for confirmation since the driver may have a different judgment about it. Stop signs are different. They are not a judgment call but a basic driving operation. You can't be asking the driver for confirmation every time you need to stop at a stop sign or start again.

I would seriously doubt that Tesla would ever implement stop signs with a double confirmation. They will wait until it works.

 

[electronblue]

@diplomat33

To be clear I was only talking of confirmation to resume after a stop sign, so not a double confirmation.

A stop sign is there for a reason. Caution is required. The system needs to be ready for quite a complex assessment of the traffic ahead to proceed by itself after a stop (unless of course Tesla just decides to put quite a bit of weight on the driver-as-crutch on this).

 

[conman]

Oh it will stop by itself, but resuming at a stop sign is worlds apart from resuming at a set of traffic lights! Green simply means go. Stopped long enough at a stop sign doesn't mean anything at all. I think they will find recognising vehicles approaching from other directions, or turning in front of you will prove extremely difficult. Hence why I'm quite sure it will initially require a stalk confirm before taking off. It's a much harder task than the traffic lights.

 

[whitex]

My 2019 prediction: Tesla will continue to lag behind their own lofty promises but will maintain a large lead over all competitors fielding autonomous features in consumer vehicles.

Define large lead? For example, cars like the new BMW reads speeds signs already, latest Tesla cars do not. I think you got two things correct here. One is that Tesla will underwhelm when comparing what they deliver to Elon's rosy tweets - that's on par with the last few years. Second, Tesla is the only one willing to experiment, i.e. release partial alpha features, direct to consumers instead of their own fleet of test drivers. Since they are the only ones doing that, of course they'll be in the lead (and of course by definition in the last place too).

 

[whitex]

Prediction: By the end of 2019, we will have the first of the PSD features... in North America only. PSD being Partial Self Drive, since clearly Full Self Drive is a pipe dream a decade away still. The PSD features will be the ones mentioned by Elon: Traffic lights, stop signs, and roundabouts. There will be extensive stalk confirmation at stop signs... NoA will get unassisted lane change within the next 6 months, and by then the rest of the world will get assisted NoA. If any of you think we'll actually get Full Self Drive any time soon, you need a reality check. The car auto-selecting a parking spot park feature will prove more difficult than they ever imagined and won't be released this year either.

It's interesting how over time people temper their expectations to remain excited. First it was Full Self Driving to start rolling out by end of 2017. Then FSD by end of 2018. Now, PARTIAL Self Driving by end of 2019. Next year, BASIC Self Driving by end of 2020? Then HUMAN-ASSISTED Self Driving by end of 2021? Of course, you may have to buy a new Tesla to keep hopes going, since Elon once told us all that AP2.0 has all the hardware necessary for Full Self Driving and he's already backed out of this statement. Just like AP1 having a reliable blind spot warning, or summon finding you anywhere on private property, or even SDK so "you can write your own apps".

I think what you guys are missing is Elon is a very gifted, hard working guy, who motivates himselfs with pipe dreams. Nothing wrong with that, it works for him and helps him accomplish a lot more than most people in the world. However, you have to realize that and not count on anything he says. It's like if your kid said "I am going to be a doctor and find a cure for all cancers", you'd still be proud if they found a cure for only one type of cancer which is only 80% effective. It is very likely Elon will one day deliver FSD. It will not be to anyone who paid for it today - all AP2 cars will turn into scrap metal by then. And even Elon knows this - if he really believed his own hype he would have put some tangible guarantees behind it - notice how Elon is making sure in the last 2-3 years to make sure there is nothing definitive in his promises including any definite timelines.

 

[whitex]

Oh it will stop by itself, but resuming at a stop sign is worlds apart from resuming at a set of traffic lights! Green simply means go. Stopped long enough at a stop sign doesn't mean anything at all. I think they will find recognising vehicles approaching from other directions, or turning in front of you will prove extremely difficult. Hence why I'm quite sure it will initially require a stalk confirm before taking off. It's a much harder task than the traffic lights.

I agree with you. Interestingly enough, I can almost guarantee you that some people here will claim that the car stops and resumes all by itself and having to hit the stalk or the accelerator is just a minor detail "to satisfy government regulators".