Very well said. We are asked to forgive Elon as simply incurably optimistic about schedule, but when he says that a feature is going to be out in weeks or months and then it is never released and never talked about again... How is that simple optimism? On what did he base his assertion that it would be available in the near future? I mean, this is an automobile, not an iPhone app, if a major new autonomy feature is going to be released any time in the next 2-3 months it had damned well better be feature complete and "pencils down" already, and showing strong promise in tests, with only a few small bugs left to fix. The idea that Elon thinks he can release software that will control 4,500lbs of metal barreling down the highway at 80mph without several months between the end of feature development and the public release is frankly scary to me, but that is what you must believe if you believe his tweets are not outright lies. In fact you must really believe that he thinks the entire development cycle for a major new autonomy feature, from initial design through pubic release, can be done in a few months.
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Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!
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Very well said. We are asked to forgive Elon as simply incurably optimistic about schedule, but when he says that a feature is going to be out in weeks or months and then it is never released and never talked about again... How is that simple optimism? On what did he base his assertion that it would be available in the near future? I mean, this is an automobile, not an iPhone app, if a major new autonomy feature is going to be released any time in the next 2-3 months it had damned well better be feature complete and "pencils down" already, and showing strong promise in tests, with only a few small bugs left to fix. The idea that Elon thinks he can release software that will control 4,500lbs of metal barreling down the highway at 80mph without several months between the end of feature development and the public release is frankly scary to me, but that is what you must believe if you believe his tweets are not outright lies. In fact you must really believe that he thinks the entire development cycle for a major new autonomy feature, from initial design through pubic release, can be done in a few months.
The option for pre-order FSD being pulled makes me strongly suspect that someone on the engineering team has finally gotten it through to Musk that FSD with any acceptable modicum of safety/reliability will in all likelihood remain impossible with the current sensor suite.
Hence, Tesla currently faces the prospect of having to retrofit not only the APE 3.0 but also upgraded sensors into perhaps 200,000 delivered cars with FSD pre-paid, all on the company dime, which will run to money.
However, if they continued selling FSD with M3 now ramping up sharply, the hit by the time the new HW is ready would ultimately be several times worse than it presently promises to be.
So dropping the option now limits the liability and means that when new HW is finally ready Tesla can charge whatever they like for the retrofit to those desperate enough to have it in all cars sold after today.
I take it as a good sign that realism is starting to seep into the ivory dome.
Hence, Tesla currently faces the prospect of having to retrofit not only the APE 3.0 but also upgraded sensors into perhaps 200,000 delivered cars with FSD pre-paid, all on the company dime, which will run to money.
However, if they continued selling FSD with M3 now ramping up sharply, the hit by the time the new HW is ready would ultimately be several times worse than it presently promises to be.
So dropping the option now limits the liability and means that when new HW is finally ready Tesla can charge whatever they like for the retrofit to those desperate enough to have it in all cars sold after today.
I take it as a good sign that realism is starting to seep into the ivory dome.
jeffro01
Active Member
Stop using the word "fraud". You can't possibly know this and it's irresponsible and childish to immediately jump to that conclusion.
FFS people... There are several reasons why Tesla removed the FSD purchase option and until they comment further, people need to calm down... I didn't get FSD on my Model X because I believe Tesla isn't close enough yet to justify the cost but it's not like I have some special inside information or any other proof that I know something someone else doesn't. That goes the same for 99%+ of the people here...
Jeff
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
How can anyone believe in FSD with the current hardware... V9 was a giant step backward in functionality 
I believe the hardware sensors are absolutely adequate for FSD. Software is finally progressing. I agree that removing the option was solely to mitigate financial commitment for future upgrades. It's likely the cost outstrips the 5k current add on price with labor and the hw3 module.
I'm not normally pessimistic, but... in the worst possible scenario, they've realised that it is impossible with the current suite of hardware sensors and plan to refund/compensate all those who've paid for it in its current form and have since pulled the option, pending HW4 with new sensors and not just more processing? I don't think this is the case (and certainly hope it isn't) but anything's still possible in the absence of actual FSD feature deployment.
I fail to see how a radar sensor incapable at >50mph to distinguish a firetruck parked in the planned path from inconsequential roadside clutter can be described as anything but tragically inadequate, as the several well-known instances of the car "fusing" itself and occupant to massive objects eloquently attest.
Remember that Musk ordained, post-Brown, that this ab initio unfit for purpose sensor is the *principal thing* standing between his AP customers and a sudden death/maiming ... cold comfort indeed.
Revising my previous suspicion -- most probably the only way the seriousness of this matter was made to penetrate his infamous obduracy/ego was when the entire AP/FSD team clubbed together and threatened to quit en masse, rather than be subsequently held responsible for having continued to enable him to sell a system they know will remain a deadly danger, and they were then joined by the in-house legal team.
Losing both those departments the same day would have begun to reek of carelessness and plunged the stock to languish around $160 at a time when it needs to be well north of $300 to refinance the project, hence our Supreme Leader, when totally cornered by revolting subordinates wielding spec-sheets and future suits, wisely selected the only option remaining open to him.
Let this henceforth be known in company lore as the first successful application of the VRT [vision readjustment tool].
And here's hoping you many happy returns, Elon!
Dear Jeff, issuing peremptory commands to sober and independent adults, while casually insulting their intelligence and implying they should blithely run the risk of their own or third parties' lives rather than question the engineering judgement of a man evidently toying on the verge of an ego-induced mental breakdown, cannot end well.
All flesh is fallible so perhaps it is time to select a preferably inanimate object for veneration?
SpudLime
Active Member
Man people love to overthink crap.
Elon literally said they removed FSD because it was too confusing.
Why can’t people just believe him and leave it at that?
Elon literally said they removed FSD because it was too confusing.
Why can’t people just believe him and leave it at that?
Maybe because many believed him when he had FSD "only pending extensive validation" put on the company blog and proclaimed AP1 parity for end of 2016.
Some even uptraded their AP1 cars for AP2, only to be stuck with an inferior solution for about a year and a half (signage recognition still isn't there), all while he promised FSD features in "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely", which didn't even materialize 18 months in..
And at that time (end of '16) the whole scope of the falling out with Mobileye was not yet known, to all the wise guys laughing at those who traded AP1 for AP2.
Unless Elons tweets include a short timeline of around a month max, they tend to be vaporware. If the timeline is shorter, multiply by 2 or 3, then expect the lesser of the envelope promised.
Some even uptraded their AP1 cars for AP2, only to be stuck with an inferior solution for about a year and a half (signage recognition still isn't there), all while he promised FSD features in "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely", which didn't even materialize 18 months in..
And at that time (end of '16) the whole scope of the falling out with Mobileye was not yet known, to all the wise guys laughing at those who traded AP1 for AP2.
Unless Elons tweets include a short timeline of around a month max, they tend to be vaporware. If the timeline is shorter, multiply by 2 or 3, then expect the lesser of the envelope promised.
Because pretty much everything he has ever tweeted about Autopilot has turned out to be either entirely or mostly false. Find me a counter example.
Given that, why would people "just believe him and leave it at that?"
This post has to be trolling, right?
It WAS confusing. Fraud is like that. People get the wrong idea when you offer to sell them autonomous capability that you might HAVE autonomous capability to sell.
Seems like the problem for the infinity naive is underthinking.
How can you say that when you don't actually have L5. I'm not saying their camera configuration is wrong or lacking since they copied Mobileye configuration. I do feel a camera on the grill would come in handy in un-parking situations.
I'm saying if you can't lock-in your sensors before having L5. You then need to come up with a math that can prove how safe your system has to be with just the sensors you have. For cameras only and one poor non-heated narrow forward radar. Its pretty steep.
Did anyone at Tesla do the math?
He's wrong but thinks he's right. That makes him dangerous!
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Those of you going on about FSD being removed ... you DO realize that you currently can still order it as an upgrade to your new car purchase? I think what Elon meant by 'too confusing' was it was too confusing right next to EAP. It's still available, but has to be added over on a buyer's Tesla account.
I'm not saying it will stay there forever, I think Elon implied it might not. But for now, it is not pulled. It is not removed.
I'm not saying it will stay there forever, I think Elon implied it might not. But for now, it is not pulled. It is not removed.
The reason people are pissed isn’t because they can’t order the make believe feature.
It’s because after 2 years of most of us suggesting that Tesla shouldn’t be selling FSD until they actually know how to do it...Tesla has concluded maybe they should stop selling it until they know how to do it.
It’s really mind-blowing to think about all the little F-ups along the way to failure. We had AP2.0 which absolutely had the hardware needed to handle the software we don’t know how to make...and then we had some minor Radar supplier change...people were starting to freak out wondering if Tesla would be changing their old obsolete radar units with the imminent FSD rollout. It seems so quaint now. Then AP2.5 cpu...then I stopped paying much attention, but lots of talk about making their own chips, blah blah. AP3...etc.
At this point, wouldn’t it be better for Elon to start Twhyping a time-machine project that can take him back to just before he mouthed off to Mobileye. Then he can travel back to the factory in Sept 2016 with a big box of AP5 hardware (powered by Waymo).
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Again, they have not stopped selling it. New car purchasers can currently add it as an upgrade through their Tesla account.The reason people are pissed isn’t because they can’t order the make believe feature.
It’s because after 2 years of most of us suggesting that Tesla shouldn’t be selling FSD until they actually know how to do it...Tesla has concluded maybe they should stop selling it until they know how to do it.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Not the first time Tesla has done that, and many people who got burned with other Tesla features (e.g. 691hp P85D) have been warning all FSD believers. Coming next, some lawsuit which Tesla will settle on the side without admitting guilt, and then officially tell people that the cars they bought are FSD capable, except for some small detail which makes it impossible for FSD to ever work on the (like the fact that the battery on P85D limited it to 463hp in ideal conditions, but the car is totally capable of 691hp).
whitex
Well-Known Member
They may have some legal issue taking it away from the cars they already sold as "FSD capable", or simply didn't get around to removing it from the MyTesla systems.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Why does it matter what the rated horsepower is as long as the car matches the acceleration performance specs? Is it just the fact that they lied about the horsepower?
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