Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!

[Bladerskb]

How would the operator be responsible for the vehicle in a situation where the operator is not in the car, like in a situation where you summon your car to pick you up at the front of the store? If summon works by the operator remote controlling the car from their phone, yes, I could see the operator being responsible but if the car is supposed to come pick you up completely on its own with no action from the driver, I don't see how you can make the operator responsible. I guess this goes to the line between L2 and FSD. If the driver is remote controlling the car with their phone, it could be L2, I guess, but if the car is operating on its own to pick you up, that gets closer to FSD IMO.

So I guess my point is that if Tesla is trying to do summon where you remote control your car, I agree that it should not be a problem for regulators. Just have the operator of the vehicle be licensed and be responsible for the actions of the car when they are controlling it and require the operator be X ft away within line of sight of the car, and you are good to go. But if Tesla is trying to do summon that is more like FSD where the car can pick you up in the parking lot on its own, then yeah, I think regulators will have something to say.

We know that Tesla is working on FSD so it makes sense that they would be facing regulatory hurdles.

You have to look at this and the view what features Tesla currently have out. This is similar to people saying that Regulators were holding up EAP features while EAP where still struggling to match AP1 in performance and features. It didn’t make sense because of the later.

Same in this situation. If smart summon or Park seek (also park retrieve) mode were being held up by regulators. Then where is the park seek mode with human in the driver seat? Or the “park when near a parking spot?”

Auto Park hasn’t advanced one bit since what it was year ago. You would think there would be advancements before there’s some sort of parking without driver supervision. Also Tesla is not the type of company to hold out features as they have proven they will find ways to release it.

Forget summon to the front of a store, where is the “park when near a parking spot” mode? Auto park still only works when you have in-between cars. You can’t autopark in an empty parking lot (or around empty parking spots).

So if you can’t park using parking lines alone and you can’t navigate a parking lot with a driver in the car. Which are both easier things. Why would you think that regulators is the hold up for being able to be picked up at the front of the store

 

[lunitiks]

Look, any tweet where Elon talks about "regulators" as an excuse for not releasing something without talking about which regulator in which jurisdiction with which regulatory authority should be viewed with great skepticism. Tesla can and has released software-based features limited to certain markets or which behave differently in different markets, to meet local regulatory guidelines. As far as I am aware, none of the regulations anywhere have really caught up with what is currently happening in ADAS and AVs. Because the regulations haven't caught up, the regulators really have little ability to prevent the release of a product, particularly a software update. They mostly can only step in after there are accidents which bring the safety of the product into question -- some regulators have broad authority to take action against products for which they have evidence that there is a safety-related defect. But this happens after the product is released and the evidence mounts.

The one thing the law in most areas has to say about these systems right now -- and this is more a side effect of assumptions baked into law than by specific action by legislators -- is that the operator of the vehicle must be properly licensed and remains responsible for the vehicle at all times. This does not shield the manufacturer from liability if a defect in the vehicle contributes to an accident, but still there is always an operator, the operator must be licensed, and the operator is always responsible in some sense.

Unless Tesla is seeking to have Autopilot licensed as an operator, there is very little they need from the regulators to release a software update containing new features, so long as there is still a licensed operator with responsibility and control. That is, unless there is some non-public agreement between Tesla and NHTSA or some other agency that gives them extra oversight because of the high-profile crashes in Teslas. (I doubt this is the case -- I think that would be public knowledge.)

Now, Tesla undoubtedly has internal review mechanisms which are intended to address Tesla's own risk of liability for defects in their products. Those internal review mechanisms may be raising red flags about Summon changes. It would be just like Elon to blame this on "regulators". Maybe to him anybody who tells him "no" is a regulator, trying to shackle his free spirit.

Disclaimer: IANAL and I'm probably wrong about a lot of the above, but that is my understanding and I think that at least in broad terms it is correct. I would invite anybody with specific knowledge to make specific corrections.

^^^ This

 

[Interferon]

Tesla warns ‘self-driving package’ buyers that activation is ‘very far away’ due to regulations

Yeah, "regulations". That's the problem. That's always been the problem, doncha know? Those pesky regulators forcing Tesla to keep their amazing technological capabilities locked away where nobody can see or test or verify them...

“So even when we have the hardware ready, and your car would have it, you would most likely not be able to use it for a very long time.”​

Yup, sounds like we are completely on-track for the first FSD features in August... 2020.

Here's my prediction: HW3 will be required to deliver on the original EAP features. This is why they've toned down the EAP description. Tesla will not provide free upgrades to HW3 for EAP buyers, though, until somebody sues them, because they simply can't afford to give free hardware that probably costs $1.5-$2k to 200,000 customers (which is what it will be by then). So we'll all get $20 checks as a consolation prize, which we can choose to apply toward the $5000 HW3 upgrade, which will get us not FSD but "EAP++", which is really just something almost but not quite fulfilling the original EAP promises of on-ramp-to-off-ramp, smart summon, and self-park. With steering wheel nags in full force.

A few FSD features, like stop sign and traffic light detection, will be released on HW3, but they will be driver assistance features. The human driver will be responsible. Most actions will require confirmation from the driver. The steering wheel nags will still be present at least on local roads. Highway may creep slowly toward an L3 system with severe limitations and the requirement that the driver remain aware, if not hands-on-wheel. But they have no way to ensure that the driver is aware, so this will be merely a legal CYA measure. People will read books on the highway, and people will die.

And then the regulators will put a stop to it, and there will be no more "FSD" on currently-produced vehicles. And then Elon's pure raw hatred of regulators will be shown to be completely justified!

This sounds like the likeliest scenario I've heard in a while.

Imagine how much less stress and liability and pissed-off customers there would be if Elon had just kept his mouth shut about FSD from the get-go and not had it as an option to buy until it was proven to work. I'm sure they would still have sold more cars than they could make.

 

[electronblue]

@rnortman a likely scenario.

Here is how I put my view in another thread:

Tesla will probably take HW2/2.5 with HW3 retrofits as far as it can go and the basically use the regulator caveat to explain away the rest when it will never be ”Level 5”, possibly never beyond Level 2. There may be some more lawsuits eventually but Tesla will be big enough to weather them at that stage.

When HW3 launches it would not surprise me if Tesla repackages the EAP/FSD setup in some way that does not create so much liability of past promises and all that Level 5 capable hardware talk from October 2016 slowly melts into history. It helped Tesla weather the MobilEye break-up at the time, was mostly just hot air but it did its trick.

I mean it is not like this has not played out exactly the same way before. P85D performance with Ludicrous and software updates, right? The same with P90D... AP1 promises that never came and so on (software 8.1 with navigation-based exit taking in December 2016 for AP1 for example). The history of Tesla is littered with broken promises that have kept products selling at the time and are conveniently forgotten in the future.

I think people expecting retrofits beyond HW3 will be disappointed, assuming that is the stage at which Tesla begins the HW2/HW2.5 retrofits.

 

[dgatwood]

This sounds like the likeliest scenario I've heard in a while.

Imagine how much less stress and liability and pissed-off customers there would be if Elon had just kept his mouth shut about FSD from the get-go and not had it as an option to buy until it was proven to work. I'm sure they would still have sold more cars than they could make.

I doubt it. For sure, I wouldn't own one. My last car was a RAV4. I don't buy expensive cars. But I bought a Model X because I knew that it had semi-self-driving features and would eventually have full self driving. Were it not for that, I would not have even considered a Tesla at that price point. And I would not have considered a version with a smaller battery, because even the 100D is just barely adequate during the winter without charging past 90%. And the Model 3 is way too small for me, so basically I'd have been waiting for the Model Y before I even considered buying a Tesla vehicle at all.

I figure the only reason the Model 3 is happening at all is because they built up enough money selling those high-priced models to (barely) cover the ramp-up costs. Without the promise of full self-driving, the first consumer EV likely would have come from GM, and Tesla would have eventually tried to catch up, but it would have been too little, too late, and they'd be out of business.

So although pre-selling the feature was a big risk, I think it was a necessary one.

 

[OPRCE]

I doubt it. For sure, I wouldn't own one. My last car was a RAV4. I don't buy expensive cars. But I bought a Model X because I knew that it had semi-self-driving features and would eventually have full self driving. Were it not for that, I would not have even considered a Tesla at that price point. And I would not have considered a version with a smaller battery, because even the 100D is just barely adequate during the winter without charging past 90%. And the Model 3 is way too small for me, so basically I'd have been waiting for the Model Y before I even considered buying a Tesla vehicle at all.

I figure the only reason the Model 3 is happening at all is because they built up enough money selling those high-priced models to (barely) cover the ramp-up costs. Without the promise of full self-driving, the first consumer EV likely would have come from GM, and Tesla would have eventually tried to catch up, but it would have been too little, too late, and they'd be out of business.

So although pre-selling the feature was a big risk, I think it was a necessary one.

I second that, also would not have bought without promised inclusion of all future hardware upgrades to achieve FSD.

 

[emmz0r]

I second that, also would not have bought without promised inclusion of all future hardware upgrades to achieve FSD.

If you ordered FSD you will get that, that was promised.

 

[electronblue]

If you ordered FSD you will get that, that was promised.

We do not know that.

In reality there is a long list of promises and specs Tesla has not delivered and many that very likely they never will. Many AP1 features (AP1 navigation based exit taking announced as software update for December 2016 as one example of many), P85D and P90D performance specifications (including missing promised 0-60), promised retrofitted for free lighted vanity mirrors for all Model S etc.

That said I am pretty sure some kind of feature called FSD will be delivered and some hardware retrofits made for HW2/HW2.5 cars (HW3 APE the likeliest) but ”Level 5 capable” or Tesla Network riding (another promise, details of which to be released in 2017 was also promised) seem unlikely.

 

[emmz0r]

We do not know that.

In reality there is a long list of promises and specs Tesla has not delivered and many that very likely they never will. Many AP1 features (AP1 navigation based exit taking announced as software update for December 2016), P85D and P90D performance specifications (including missing promised 0-60), promised retrofitted for free lighted vanity mirrors for all Model S etc.

That said I am pretty sure some kind of feature called FSD will be delivered and some hardware retrofits made for HW2/HW2.5 cars (HW3 APE the likeliest) but ”Level 5 capable” or Tesla Network riding (another promise, details of which to be released in 2017 was also promised) seem unlikely.

HW3 is a reality and Elon has repeatedly stated that the retrofit will be free. If not there's solid grounds for a refund or re-delivery.
Full self driving. is FULL self driving. Not half self driving.

If I have my HW3 delivered and retrofitted, and it works in intersections and roundabouts without confirmation, I would be a happy camper.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

I second that, also would not have bought without promised inclusion of all future hardware upgrades to achieve FSD.

Third this. Bought the 2018 MSP100D this Sept for the FSD... eventual. Not holding my breathe for FSD or care at this point. It’s very obvious that EAP is nowhere near FSD. We were misled. Love the S P100D so it doesn’t matter at this point.

The S P100D is an awesome car. Performance wise it rivals cars like the Porsche 911Turbo S, Audi R8, etc. performance wise, the car is a bargain even at 150k... and it is an EV and can seat your in-laws in back in comfort while you smash supercars. So don’t care about the FSD, the P100D is a blast to drive.

When we bought the S in September, Tesla was running a commercial on their website showing a blind man “driving” to his mother’s house. Very touching. That ad is no longer there. LOL!

 

[electronblue]

HW3 is a reality and Elon has repeatedly stated that the retrofit will be free. If not there's solid grounds for a refund or re-delivery.
Full self driving. is FULL self driving. Not half self driving.

If I have my HW3 delivered and retrofitted, and it works in intersections and roundabouts without confirmation, I would be a happy camper.

I am pretty sure we’ll get HW3 APE or similar computer retrofits that is not an issue really. How quickly those are fitted is an open question but still.

What is a different story is will that FSD meet the lofty goals Tesla outlined in October 2016 for it. Including Level 5 capable hardware, Tesla Network for renting out your car in autonomous mode and Summon from coast to coast to pick you up.

 

[emmz0r]

I am pretty sure we’ll get HW3 APE or similar computer retrofits that is not an issue really. How quickly those are fitted is an open question but still.

What is a different story is will that FSD meet the lofty goals Tesla outlined in October 2016 for it. Including Level 5 capable hardware, Tesla Network for renting out your car in autonomous mode and Summon from coast to coast to pick you up.

Yeah. Europe has not gotten NoA yet. No idea what the hold-up is. But if it's the same with HW3 I am gonna get pissed.

 

[conman]

Yeah. Europe has not gotten NoA yet. No idea what the hold-up is. But if it's the same with HW3 I am gonna get pissed.

It will be the same, and we are gonna get pissed.

 

[SpudLime]

Third this. Bought the 2018 MSP100D this Sept for the FSD... eventual. Not holding my breathe for FSD or care at this point. It’s very obvious that EAP is nowhere near FSD. We were misled. Love the S P100D so it doesn’t matter at this point.

The S P100D is an awesome car. Performance wise it rivals cars like the Porsche 911Turbo S, Audi R8, etc. performance wise, the car is a bargain even at 150k... and it is an EV and can seat your in-laws in back in comfort while you smash supercars. So don’t care about the FSD, the P100D is a blast to drive.

When we bought the S in September, Tesla was running a commercial on their website showing a blind man “driving” to his mother’s house. Very touching. That ad is no longer there. LOL!

That was not a Tesla ad. It was made by fans of the car.

It wasn’t in their website but they probably retweeted it.

 

[thenaimis]

Elon has repeatedly stated that the retrofit will be free.

Elon has said a lot of things. I'll believe it when I see it, and then I'll expect support to be removed in a later software update.

 

[emmz0r]

Elon has said a lot of things. I'll believe it when I see it, and then I'll expect support to be removed in a later software update.

Better believe it or it's gonna be lawyer food. Just like the reported horse power in the P series and the AP 2.0 delay.

 

[electronblue]

Better believe it or it's gonna be lawyer food. Just like the reported horse power in the P series and the AP 2.0 delay.

Unfortunately the legal repercussions in those instances were so tiny in comparison that they really did not force addressing the issues themselves. AP 2.0 is still delayed, P series still have only the HP they do. Well the P90D performance throttling (after frequent launches) at least got rolled back a little after a court order, another episode not even mentioned often these days.

If those cases are anything to go by, Tesla would get away with FSD non-delivery by paying off some lawyers, changing some texts on websites and spreading some hundreds of dollars to each buyer... and relying on people forgetting and upgrading cars anyway to new ones.

It is not hard to imagine that a company might even rely a bit on such obfuscating circumstances and the passage of time to get away with things. I mean many of those who actually bought HW2 (not 2.5) and FSD with the original set of promises are soon buying new cars anyway.

That said I do believe Tesla will retrofit HW3 computer or similar but I am not so sure about the actual capabilities of ”FSD” reaching the lofty promises of late 2016 on HW2...

 

[emmz0r]

Unfortunately the legal repercussions in those instances were so tiny in comparison that they really did not force addressing the issues themselves. AP 2.0 is still delayed, P series still have only the HP they do. Well the P90D performance throttling (after frequent launches) at least got rolled back a little after a court order, another episode not even mentioned often these days.

If those cases are anything to go by, Tesla would get away with FSD non-delivery by paying off some lawyers, changing some texts on websites and spreading some hundreds of dollars to each buyer... and relying on people forgetting and upgrading cars anyway to new ones.

It is not hard to imagine that a company might even rely a bit on such obfuscating circumstances and the passage of time to get away with things. I mean many of those who actually bought HW2 (not 2.5) and FSD with the original set of promises are soon buying new cars anyway.

That said I do believe Tesla will retrofit HW3 computer or similar but I am not so sure about the actual capabilities of ”FSD” reaching the lofty promises of late 2016 on HW2...

Yeah I am thinking about the retrofit only. The actual software will be grossly delayed. I think we'll reach some kind of a super-NoA with support for intersections and roundabouts etc, but not "summon the car across the country" or the Tesla network.

If you get dirt on the cameras it has to pull over and stop. With a human in the car it can alert you and you can take over to fix the problem safely, but without a driver - I don't think so. Will be great times for the towing car business though

 

[emmz0r]

Russian hackers did it!

 

[Electroman]

Premapped route. A big step but not a biggie. Tesla’s demo 2 years ago was also rigged with a premapped route.