AP 2.5 didn't come out until August 2017. That was less than 18 months ago, not "more than two years" ago.
Eh, Tesla made some pretty bold statements back in the AP1 days. Using Summon, once you arrive home and exit Model S or Model X, you can prompt it to do the rest: open your garage door, enter your garage, park itself, and shut down. In the morning, you wake up, walk out the front door, and summon your car. It will open the garage door and come to greet you. More broadly, Summon also eliminates the burden of having to squeeze in and out of tight parking spots. During this Beta stage of Summon, we would like customers to become familiar with it on private property. Eventually, your Tesla will be able to drive anywhere across the country to meet you, charging itself along the way. It will sync with your calendar to know exactly when to arrive. Summon Your Tesla from Your Phone
This is a very important point. Looking at aviation GPS augmentation as precedent, the FAA's WAAS is supposed to guarantee bounded errors to a failure rate of 2x10^-7 (i.e. 1 in 5 million) per instrument approach. It is specifically understood that this failure rate applies for every individual approach, not an average over all approaches. In other words, there should not be some systematic set of cases in which failures are more likely or guaranteed to occur, e.g. in the case of an autodrive system, perhaps traffic lights of a certain appearance are consistently failed to be interpreted correctly. More generally, Elon's safety number does not impress me. Taking the WAAS 2x10^-7 bounding failure rate above, that is equivalent to a safety rate of 99.99998%. Note that this in itself isn't the full picture, because it is a statement about correct error bounding / modelling. If a navigation solution error fails to be bounded, that does not necessarily lead to a crash, so a WAAS user is probably significantly safer than this stated value. So my conclusion is that there is way more work to be done in the autonomous vehicle sector than people are even starting to talk about.
False. It was stated at the October 2014 event (which introduced AP and AWD) that the cars would react to stop signs. Zero caveats were given. No guidance was offered that the current hardware package was not up to the task. And here we are coming up on 5 years later, despite the staged video from 12/2016, with exactly no ability to react to a stop sign. Cry me a river. I turned down the opportunity to be a lead plaintiff for that $22x class action as I was and still am long TSLA. I won't turn down the opportunity this time. Between having an AP2 car that to this day is less stable than my AP1 car and the 90D-100D supercharging bait and switch from March 2017, I figure $22x is about $50K short of making me whole. Actually, $45K, since my car is one of the last made for which unlimited supercharging transfers to the next owner. Not that the $5000 or so that lead plaintiffs get for hours and days of inconvenience does much either. But at this point, it is incredibly obvious that even an AP3 board isn't going to deliver anything but a very limited cross-country experience. Furthermore, nobody with an AP2 car (versus an AP2.5 car starting mid-2017) will be able to have advanced summon (see 12/2016 video parking merriment) or who knows what else. Anyone heard of an AP2 --> AP2.5 retrofit? How about that MCU1 --> MCU2 retrofit Elon promised? Tesla's best competitive advantage today is their incredible global SC network (followed by battery tech). I doubt any group bests it at least in the US in the next 5 years. Oh, they might have sites, but they won't have coverage *and scalability* for close to a decade. But pretty quick here the market will be flooded with driver assist features aplenty. And in that arena, Tesla had better pull a rabbit out of its nether regions or they will be embarrassed. The only way to the FSD promised land for we 1.5-year old car owners is to buy yet another Tesla. At least we'll have what promises to be an absolute category-killer of a full-sized pickup truck to consider. That will immediately impact the compact or not-so-compact RV market as well. Huge potential. But FSD? Yeah. Not so much for a bit longer here, folks.
Elon didn't promise an MCU1-MCU2 upgrade. He only tweeted "hardware can be upgraded". Translating this as an upgrade promise is a stretch, not like "we'll have FSD by the end of 2018", Coast to coast in 2017 or the infamous October 16 video.
Yes it can (potentially) read stop signs. But there was no clear statement of it reacting to it. But of course, using common sense that would be implied. Indeed promises broken (could still happen, they did say eventually, so 10 years from now AP1 might get an upgrade? haha...) On a more serious note: FSD was a separate option with a very distinct description of it's features where they clearly diverge from EAP.
Either you want to defend the indefensible or your translation got “lost in translation” if Elon’s tweet stood in its own and NOT in response to a specific tweet you might have a leg to stand on:
"Will it be possible to retrofit?" "Yes, you can upgrade the hardware" It is possible, supposedly someone's even done it (I haven't seen evidence). But merely the fact that hardware can be upgraded does not mean they will offer an upgrade process. Believe me, I'd love for them to give me a cheap 500 bucks upgrade of only the MCU as they used to offer with the LTE upgrade, but alas it's not that simple, because you also have to replace the ICU, and then you might as well install the new antenna cluster/mirror. That would push up prices beyond what anyone in their right mind will be willing to pay for a snappier interface, in turn meaning it will not make it a profitable option to offer if only like 3 people will want it. So "Yes, you can upgrade the hardware" but it doesn't make sense and he didn't say "We'll offer an upgrade" as he did numerous times regarding FSD prepurchase and necessary higher end hardware.
You potentially aren’t getting just a snappier interface, there may be great feature divergence than just the current Pole Postion game. At some point people may we’ll be willing to upgrade even if a high price. These cars may last hundreds of thousands of miles beyond traditional ICE cars, so it would be nice to keep them up to date...
I had read some where that they are still having issues with MCU discoloration and will be rolling out some new process for MCU screens around Spring. I am not sure if it applies to MCU2. I know it applies to MCU1. I’ve had mine replaced once and it needs it again. If this does effect MCU2 as well perhaps they are waiting for a fix for all before they start allowing upgrades.
It can be done today, it in fact has been done, so if tesla actually wanted todo it they would, they don’t, they want you to buy a new car and lose sc for life, and they’ll never sell us a new battery I suspect for the same reasons.
Completely true. Don't get me wrong, I'm upset they don't offer it. Or at least say how much it would cost. I'm appalled at the poor performance, especially since even the MCU1 hardware should be able to run everything much faster with proper optimization. But that's not going to get better, just as an upgrade is not going to happen. I'm afraid the only reason they eventually optimized it somewhat 6 years into the service life was to try and avert 200.000 owners scheduling an MCU2 update at notoriously flooded service centers right before they were starting to roll out the Model 3. I'm wondering how they want to manage the teens of thousands of HW3 upgrades once available, even if it's a 15 min process only...
Yes, ape is crazy easy to get access to based on the videos I’ve seen, this is one piece Elon is actually accurate with. Well even a broken clock is right 2x a day...
Many also forget that navigate on Autopilot (exit-taking) was also promised for AP1. And not just vaguely promised, navigation based Autopilot exit taking for AP1 was announced in the autumn of 2016 for the late 2016 ”8.1” update that never appeared as announced (instead the 8.1 that came out later was something different). It was the last push to keep AP1 inventory selling until AP2 was prevalent.
Have a link or anything? I've searched bit come up empty. I read a number of claims it has been done but haven't seen anything about it (not doubting your statement, just want to get the info).