Frustrated with FSD timeline

[SlicedBr3ad]

As Cadillac is about to prove, "subject to regulatory approval" is a Tesla red herring, plain and simple. So long as an attentive driver is seated in the driver's seat, no further regulatory approval is required. What is apparent is EAP and FSD are little more than vaporware 8 MONTHS after Tesla began bragging about them. Did we mention that all the senior management staff in the autonomous driving division have bailed?

Fsd is vaporware.

Eap, not do much. Reading description on Tesla. Com, werey missing automatic lane changes, transition between highways, and taking exits. This is far from vaporware. Even more, I've driven ap2 mS and mX, there is definitely groundwork already in place to make remaining functionality to happen soon. Example, I was driving in exit only lane on highway at 70 mph, car took the exit ramp, slowed to 27 mph (speed limit was 30mph) and stayed firmly within lanes on ramp (mind you it was one of those full circle turn some ramps and not just a minor turn). My mind was blown by how confident the car was while allowing down and making this fairly steep turn.

 

[JeffK]

Wow. Why would they close that without any explanation?

Maybe too many threads regarding the same subject and it's in Model S when it should be in the autonomous vehicles section.

Its funny because in the video Tesla puts "The Person In The Car Is Only There For Legal Reasons"

A blatant lie

As far as for legal reasons. Here's the law.
§ 227.18. Requirements for Autonomous Vehicle Test Drivers.
A manufacturer shall not conduct testing of an autonomous vehicle on public roads unless the vehicle is operated or driven by an autonomous vehicle test driver who meets each of the following requirements:
(a) The autonomous vehicle test driver is either in immediate physical control of the vehicle or is actively monitoring the vehicle's operations and capable of taking over immediate physical control.
(b) The autonomous vehicle test driver is an employee, contractor or designee of the manufacturer.
(c) The autonomous vehicle test driver shall obey all provisions of the Vehicle Code and local regulation applicable to the operation of motor vehicles whether the vehicle is in autonomous mode or conventional mode.
(d) The autonomous vehicle test driver knows the limitations of the vehicle's autonomous technology and is capable of safely operating the vehicle in all conditions under which the vehicle is tested on public roads.

 

[McRat]

Its funny because in the video Tesla puts "The Person In The Car Is Only There For Legal Reasons"

A blatant lie

Or marketing. Pick one.

The person was in the car for the safety of others AND Legal Reasons. Either that or project manager is a sociopath.

"Damn lawyers! I wanted to see how far it will go before it hits something!! Screw 'em. Plug 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue into the destination, and let 'er rip. We have insurance..."

 

[Bladerskb]

This *demo* is perfectly reasonable. It shows potential of a system in development. End of. The fact you can't wrap your head around that is your problem, not Tesla's.

Im not talking about the demo. Im referring to the statement before the demo.

This has contributed to many including high profile youtube users and car review sites to think that FSD was done and ready last year but still cant be activated for leagl reason.

Notice no one else in their demos have put a statement like that. Like tge uber guy said, we need to start calling out elon on his *sugar*.

 

[Bladerskb]

Maybe too many threads regarding the same subject and it's in Model S when it should be in the autonomous vehicles section.


As far as for legal reasons. Here's the law.
§ 227.18. Requirements for Autonomous Vehicle Test Drivers.
A manufacturer shall not conduct testing of an autonomous vehicle on public roads unless the vehicle is operated or driven by an autonomous vehicle test driver who meets each of the following requirements:
(a) The autonomous vehicle test driver is either in immediate physical control of the vehicle or is actively monitoring the vehicle's operations and capable of taking over immediate physical control.
(b) The autonomous vehicle test driver is an employee, contractor or designee of the manufacturer.
(c) The autonomous vehicle test driver shall obey all provisions of the Vehicle Code and local regulation applicable to the operation of motor vehicles whether the vehicle is in autonomous mode or conventional mode.
(d) The autonomous vehicle test driver knows the limitations of the vehicle's autonomous technology and is capable of safely operating the vehicle in all conditions under which the vehicle is tested on public roads.

Thats what tesla pr will try to cling to in the future. But we all know The person is in the driver seat to stop the car from killing people. Not because of any legal requirement.

The only company that has done a driverless ride is google. There are a number of states that allow driverless test.

 

[McRat]

This is where the state of the art was probably sitting 4 months ago. Still not perfect, but about 1.5 hours of nasty; erratic, poorly engineered, and crowded streets at night.

You will notice the lack of disclaimers. There are at least at a very minimum 180 of these cars in operation right now on roads across the US. I have a hunch the number is quite bit higher.

 

[McRat]

...

The only company that has done a driverless ride is google. ...

I'm not sure that is true anymore. The problem with some companies is they tend to report projects that are finished.

 

[alcibiades]

Other than a questionable "demo" and bluster, is there any reason to believe HW2 is capable of full autonomy? Perhaps the timeline problem is essentially that the system cannot do it and Tesla asserted it had the potential before they had proof of concept.

 

[3Victoria]

My opinion is somewhere in-between the extremes of @Bladerskb and @3Victoria there.

I don't think the FSD video (or the driver comment) is a lie. But I'm not sure - in the context it was released in - it showed the potential of the system very accurately either.

Remember, when we were watching the video and reading all about the glorious EAP and FSD to come, and ordering AP2 cars sight unseen, and reading Elon's tweets of 3-6 months to some FSD features, we did not know how far from that "potential" the actual shipping reality would be.

Since EM predicted a *demo* cross-country run at the end of 2017, no one should have been expecting FSD any time before that, and most likely at some later future date. The EAP is taking somewhat longer than expected, but remember it was going to be developed on top of the Mobileye system, but Mobileye pulled the plug and Tesla had to develop the equivalent from scratch. EAP is probably AI for object recognition, and linear logic for driving decisions.

FSD is another ball of wax and is based on deep AI, which requires large data sets and the massaging and retraining of the deep AI models. If indeed Tesla demonstrates a cross-country drive that is not a fixed route, then FSD might be close after that demo.

... EAP and FSD are little more than vaporware ...

While EAP exists, although perhaps not as fully developed as you would like, it is not vapourware. One can characterize FSD as vapourware at this time, but we have seen some small signs of life, and any demonstrations by other companies that use deep AI techniques just strengthens the case that it does exist.

 

[3Victoria]

Thats what tesla pr will try to cling to in the future. But we all know The person is in the driver seat to stop the car from killing people. Not because of any legal requirement.

The only company that has done a driverless ride is google. There are a number of states that allow driverless test.

??? California requires a driver, therefore it is a legal requirement. The statement by Tesla is factual.
Your comments are non-factual.
The video was a *demonstration* -- this means the system is in development -- ie not ready for prime time. Any hyped expectation is all on the part of the beholder. I had no expectation of FSD soon, but it was good to see that deep AI could do this much.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Since EM predicted a *demo* cross-country run at the end of 2017, no one should have been expecting FSD any time before that, and most likely at some later future date. The EAP is taking somewhat longer than expected, but remember it was going to be developed on top of the Mobileye system, but Mobileye pulled the plug and Tesla had to develop the equivalent from scratch. EAP is probably AI for object recognition, and linear logic for driving decisions.

FSD is another ball of wax and is based on deep AI, which requires large data sets and the massaging and retraining of the deep AI models. If indeed Tesla demonstrates a cross-country drive that is not a fixed route, then FSD might be close after that demo.

While EAP exists, although perhaps not as fully developed as you would like, it is not vapourware. One can characterize FSD as vapourware at this time, but we have seen some small signs of life, and any demonstrations by other companies that use deep AI techniques just strengthens the case that it does exist.

As I said, my comments referred to the totality of what Tesla was developing - and what perception the customers got in October to December 2016... The video was a part of that misleading perception IMO.

As for FSD, Elon said on Twitter FSD features would come out 3-6 months after a day in January 2017. Not the full monty, of course, but features for FSD users.

They have not materialized either.

So, I would say neither EAP nor FSD look today like what they were made out to be 7-10 months ago...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The video was a *demonstration* -- this means the system is in development -- ie not ready for prime time. Any hyped expectation is all on the part of the beholder. I had no expectation of FSD soon, but it was good to see that deep AI could do this much.

Well, in reality Tesla's communications are part of the perception and opinions (as well as legal views) might vary on what a reasonable person perceived from Tesla's AP2 communications in October 2016 - January 2017...

I am not sure the perception of a reasonable person would have matched the reality of today. Heck, even that FSD coast to coast has already received a potential delay until 2018...

 

[NerdUno]

??? California requires a driver, therefore it is a legal requirement. The statement by Tesla is factual.
Your comments are non-factual.
The video was a *demonstration* -- this means the system is in development -- ie not ready for prime time. Any hyped expectation is all on the part of the beholder. I had no expectation of FSD soon, but it was good to see that deep AI could do this much.

Actually, your recitation of California law is incorrect. View Document - California Code of Regulations

See also http://www.ncsl.org/research/transp...elf-driving-vehicles-enacted-legislation.aspx

 

[oktane]

Yes, so you'd be in my first category (people with a brain). People who saw the demo as the future possibilities of the system (on any road). You understood that the demo was specifically trained for that route.

The difference is that certain others did not view it that way. They thought that because the demo was able to do that particular route that it was ready for any route without additional training. They get frustrated because they saw the software "working" in the demo, but it's not yet available to the public.

I have an IQ that puts me in the top 99.9% of the world's population and I didn't see it that way.

Did it say "DEMO ONLY: This is just a preprogrammed route, and the car is not actually doing what we are implying it is doing, i.e. driving itself."

 

[boofagle]

I have an IQ that puts me in the top 99.9% of the world population

come on...you can't just say that without giving us the number!

 

[oktane]

come on...you can't just say that without giving us the number!

LOL isn't that like asking a girl for her weight?

 

[JeffK]

I have an IQ that puts me in the top 99.9% of the world population and I didn't see it that way.
Did it say "DEMO ONLY: This is just a preprogrammed route, and the car is not actually doing what we are implying it is doing, i.e. driving itself."

I can see your point, I guess the word demo it's different for different people.

For people with STEM backgrounds usually it mean Tech Demo or POC:

A technology demonstration or Demonstrator model, informally known as a "tech demo", is a prototype, rough example or an otherwise incomplete version of a conceivable product or future system, put together as proof of concept with the primary purpose of showcasing the possible applications, feasibility, performance and method of an idea for a new technology. They can be used as demonstrations to the investors, partners, journalists or even to potential customers in order to convince them of the viability of the chosen approach, or to test them on ordinary users.
Technology demonstration - Wikipedia

I also wouldn't call it a preprogrammed route as much as a "learned route". In the demo, the car is driving itself without a doubt. It might even be able to generalize to some of the surrounding roads with no modification.

 

[McRat]

I have an IQ that puts me in the top 99.9% of the world population and I didn't see it that way.

Folk who study the progress of AV technology and studied the video knew what they were looking at.

A typical car owner could certainly believe they were seeing a working system in Nov 2016.

Gearheads are rare. Folk who see cars as appliances with various features and capabilities are common.

 

[stopcrazypp]

What happened to this thread: Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

Closed for further discussion??

I guess it went to the cooler.

IMO that was a completely misunderstood thread in the end, it was a thread about the specific promise on FSD update made by Elon and the rumors and reasons related to that.

So on that note, and given it applies to the FSD timeline frustration in general, I wonder if anyone has any insight on where the current rumor of an "imminent" or "after Model 3 launch" (or somesuch word) FSD features update rumor started from and is there any merit to it?

I have heard that rumor being mentioned, but have not seen the source. The last, indeed, that I've heard of FSD from Tesla (not counting the HW 2.5/interior camera acknowledgements) is the January tweet by Elon Musk.

Anyone got anything on that newer rumor? Is it based on something or just something a member thought they remembered/made up etc.? Or is it based on the fact that Elon's "six months definitely" timeline roughly coincides with the current times?

Wow. Why would they close that without any explanation?

It was closed because it devolved into personal attacks on individual members. The offending posts were moved to snippiness, but the thread was locked also.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Actually, your recitation of California law is incorrect. View Document - California Code of Regulations

See also http://www.ncsl.org/research/transp...elf-driving-vehicles-enacted-legislation.aspx

Did you bother reading the actual law?

"§ 227.18. Requirements for Autonomous Vehicle Test Drivers.
A manufacturer shall not conduct testing of an autonomous vehicle on public roads unless the vehicle is operated or driven by an autonomous vehicle test driver who meets each of the following requirements:
(a) The autonomous vehicle test driver is either in immediate physical control of the vehicle or is actively monitoring the vehicle's operations and capable of taking over immediate physical control."

As for the second link, if you read it, the bill only allows no operators for a specific pilot program in Contra Costa in a geofenced area up to 35 mph (and the vehicle has no steering wheel or other controls). If you want to do testing in general, you need a test driver in the car. That's obviously what the video was referring to.