Elon never said that. They just wanted to have both sets of hardware in the car so they could make a graceful switchover.
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Elon never said that. They just wanted to have both sets of hardware in the car so they could make a graceful switchover.
Just because he doesn't say something doesn't make it untrue.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
I think this is correct. Just guessing of course, but it does makes sense that they would have the AP1-system (EyeQ) running on the Main camera, and have the others input to PX2 in shadow mode
not quite. the main camera will feed both the EyeQ3 chip and Drive PX2. They can then compare the outputs of ap1 to ap2. Basically using ap1 output as a baseline to developing parity, tremendously reducing dev time.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
From what we know so far, here's what I my feel for the back story is. Assuming AP1 hardware was to stay, the AP1 features wouldn't be the issue. So mainly the purely EAP features would be worked on in those couple of months. So in December the plan was to begin to roll out some EAP features (not have all of them roll at once, Tesla never rolls features out this way).
That obviously changed with Mobileye refusing to let AP1 hardware stay. So Tesla Vision had to fill in and it became a matter of if it can reach close to parity in a couple of months. I would have to dig up the reference, but Elon had been personally using a full speed version of Tesla Vision for quite some time (well before the recent release; edit: more complete quote below), so I think Elon had a feel that this wasn't something impossible. Even back in October/November, Tesla Vision had already been under a lot of development already (remember, that was part of the reason for Mobileye's break up).
"Safety is always our primary concern. So, really we could have released Tesla Vision and including (18:42) high speed, probably three months ago - I was driving at a high speed personally three months ago, but I think we want to just have an exhaustive testing process, vetting (18:57) process before enabling that throughout the fleet."
From 2/22/2017 Earnings call.
Tesla's Attempt To Leverage Mobileye IP - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I would have to dig up the direct quote about AP1 hardware staying, but I remember it came well after the Mobileye break up announcement.
Edit: it was a February earnings call this year, but the direct quotes were actually a lot vaguer than what I recall (I guess I read someone else's analysis paraphrasing):
Elon Musk Says Mobileye Forced Tesla Vision "Across the Rubicon" | Inverse
"Yes, we had some challenges in the transition from Mobileye to Tesla software running on GPU. Our original plan was to have a migration strategy, where we have Mobileye and Tesla Vision operating at the same time to have kind of a smooth process, but Mobileye refused to do that. So, that poised (18:16) us to re-spin the board and caused unexpected delays where we had to basically (18:22) from the board and just kind of (18:26) Tesla Vision."
More complete quote here:
Tesla's Attempt To Leverage Mobileye IP - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Note, Tesla was still using Mobileye hardware well after the official break up in 2016, from the same linked article by @lunitiks:
"Shashua did say MobilEye would continue to work with Tesla to improve how EyeQ3 performs in the Model S and Model X. “EyeQ3 shipments will continue for the near future, and maybe for the longer future,” Shashua said."
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First: Tesla opened the AP2/EAP Design Studio in October 2016, right? Mobileye relationship had already ended three months earlier and very publicly. No way did Tesla not know in October 2016 that the Mobileye solution would not be a part of EAP in December 2016... Honestly, I think you must know this too, if you think it through...
Second: EAP is still so far from what was said to be rolled-out in December 2016 that I have a hard time believing the rest of your speculation either. To me it seems plausible Tesla knew full well they should not have said the things they said back then... but no problem, we can agree to disagree on that possibility. That is of course speculative.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
See my other post. After the Mobileye break up, Mobileye made it clear they would continue supplying and supporting EyeQ3 for Tesla (potentially for a long time). Tesla only said they were parting ways on the fully autonomous solution, but didn't say they would part ways on the L2 solution. In fact, they were supplying EyeQ3 up to the last moment of the AP2 announcement and currently they continue to supply support for existing EyeQ3 based cars.
Still... to think that Tesla in October 2016, when they posted the EAP Design Studio, would not have known they start building AP2 cars within a month without MobilEye chips in them...
I just can't see that timeline, sorry. Tesla must have known Mobileye was out completely when then made the AP2 / EAP Design Studio announcement in October 2016. No other timeline makes sense to me given all that we heard at the time...
If you feel differently I guess there is nothing I can say, but I just can't realistically see what you are saying as even possible.
I can not see a scenario where Tesla thought still in October 2016 that AP2 cars would have Mobileye chip in them. That does not seem possible at all, given they were building the AP2 cars around that time...
So, when Tesla announced that EAP would roll-out with auto lange changes, four cameras and all in December 2016, which they did in October/November 2016, they must have known Mobileye would not be a part of this equation.
So, when Tesla announced that EAP would roll-out with auto lange changes, four cameras and all in December 2016, which they did in October/November 2016, they must have known Mobileye would not be a part of this equation.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Back in July, Elon stated that the breakup was expected and changed nothing. In his own words:
Elon Musk comments on Tesla discontinuing Mobileye’s Autopilot system, says it doesn’t affect timeline
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
You seem to be suggesting something that was categorically never said. FSD diverging from EAP in "Maybe 3 months" is the quote.
You've turned that into "Elon said Full Self Driving capability features in 9 days" and are using words like "promised". That is a terrible misrepresentation.
You've turned that into "Elon said Full Self Driving capability features in 9 days" and are using words like "promised". That is a terrible misrepresentation.
Back on the EAP:
The theory that Tesla was putting a braver face on the AP2 situation than was reality through the summer and autumn of 2016 seems plausible, given how immature AP2 turned out to be in December 2016 - compared to Tesla statements around that time...
Again, this is what Tesla said on Design Studio EAP would offer the buyer:
EAP... is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval.
The theory that Tesla was putting a braver face on the AP2 situation than was reality through the summer and autumn of 2016 seems plausible, given how immature AP2 turned out to be in December 2016 - compared to Tesla statements around that time...
Again, this is what Tesla said on Design Studio EAP would offer the buyer:
EAP... is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval.
Exactly, not only was AP2 car started being manufactured in late sept. But included in the announcement is the fact that the new cars will lack many standard basic safety features such as AEB, or even simple cruise control. that in of itself tells you that it won't have mobileye eyeQ3. there is without a doubt that mobileye was completely out the equation for that announcement and December promise.
Elon even said in the ap2 announcement press conference that ap1 cars would be better than ap2 cars for acouple months.
Any speculation that tesla had planned mobileye ap1 eyeq3 implementation is pure ludicrous.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
If Tesla operated like a regular car company, I would agree, it's impossible. But Tesla doesn't (a regular car company would never do a mid-year transition like they did with AP2 also, nor take deposits in this way).
Whatever happened around the release time, as noted, they obviously figured out Mobileye was out a good while before December (that part we both agree). But in November, Elon was already driving a full speed Tesla Vision (which was potentially ready for public release). That justifies that time estimate.
But they were cranking out AP2 hardware already at least in October 2016. They MUST have known Mobileye chip was not in those cars, when they made the EAP statement in October 2016. Right?
What Elon was driving seems rather irrelevant, though. He was in a position to find out the real status and one can assume he did...
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Sure enough, here he is at full speed! Not sure why he couldn't afford a complete car to trail, though...
what does elon driving a full speed dev software have to do with anything? that doesn't justifies anything.
elon/tesla said they will have ap1 parity, on-ramp/off-ramp, self lane changing and smart summon, self parking and autosteer+ done by December.
elon driving and testing a development build means nothing.
why do you never discuss facts. why?
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