Frustrated with FSD timeline

[JHWJR]

One of the things that drives me a bit nuts about Elon is he over-promises, and under-delivers. It does because I'm strongly aligned to under promising, and over delivering. That way I hardly ever make promises that I can't keep.

Well, it's not like he's turning wrenches in the factory. He has a lot of workers, designers, engineers, suppliers and financiers to motivate and keep anxious. While it is fair to say that he has delivered products and updates late, he remains years ahead of anyone else at a breakneck pace. I salute his remarkable progress and pace, even when it fails to live up to his ambitious schedule.

 

[stopcrazypp]

No it didn't. It said they were expected to be available in December. Expected is not a guarantee, in fact by using that word you should have known that there was a good possibility that EAP wouldn't be available by then.

Right, that is the lawyer speak noticed immediately when that was posted. You don't say "expected" if you are promising it will be available then.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

My point is: there seems to be reason to believe EAP could not have been expected to complete validation and rolled out in a single software update in December 2016 in the advetised form - as the wording in the Design Studio said.

In lawyer speak, discovery on this could well be very damaging to Tesla.

But more importantly: wouldn"t it be great if we didn't need lawyer speak and linguistical loophole acrobatics to excuse Tesla and Elon all the time? Be it schedules, horsepower or whatnot...

It is so unnecessary.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Elon does need to be a little more "Realistic" with his date's on releases of feature's and new products.

Not going to happen. Elon is an optimist. If he speaks his mind, his dates given tend to be the ones he felt at the moment would be possible. The only way to change would either be to shut down/sanitize all his off-cuff communication (like his twitter feed), but I don't think Elon will let that happen.

Of course I don't subscribe to the theory by the OP here that Elon was maliciously giving dates that he knew to be impossible (that is a fairly serious allegation to be making unsubstantiated, might subject Tesla to SEC investigation if true, but I guess baseless accusations is par for the course here). For example about the whole December 2016 date, we know that they had AP1 hardware planned to be included with AP2, which makes sense of the whole previous timeline.

 

[Zooomer]

When Elon announced, he was under the assumption MobileEye would be friendly and they could borrow and build on that. He was mistaken so they had to start from scratch putting them quite a bit behind. Considering, I'd say they are advancing quickly as the AP2 hardware has been improved about every 3 weeks since I got my car.

I would suspect parity with AP1 in the next update which I believe will be by months end. From there who knows but I don't discredit Elon for this one. It was just how it went with mobile eye

 

[BluestarE3]

The thread title is misleading. If you're going to quote someone, then quote him with the actual words he wrote. Don't interpret what he wrote and then put quotation marks around your interpretation to imply that's what he actually wrote.

 

[electracity]

I see you've never been a programmer in a software company before. "Miracles" have timelines. If it means 100+ hours a week, prepare for a divorce. Been there, done that, and she was a waste of DNA to begin with so I was awarded full custody. Go figure.

I feel like I just watched a movie on the Lifetime channel.

 

[Eclectic]

I think you would have to prove that Tesla violated some false or misleading advertisement law. Generally speaking, advertisements are not considered to be contractually binding. They are considered to be offers to enter into a binding contract, but it is your binding contract that prevails in such an instance. Did your MVPA state anything with regard to this feature and when it would be delivered? Does the Monroney sticker mention the feature without qualification? Seems like a heavy lift to tackle Tesla based on its web site representations, but then again I'm not an attorney.

I'm a lawyer (and one that deals frequently with drafting contracts) and the key will be the jurisdiction in which a claim is brought. I'm sure the MVPA contains what is known as an "integration clause", which says that the written contract is the only binding agreement that contains all the agreed upon elements. However, some jurisdictions allow what is known as "parol evidence" to clarify ambiguities. The screen print that @AnxietyRanger posted would be a classic case of parol evidence. In California, for example, courts will generally look at parol evidence, and I'd say that in a breach of contract case, that parol evidence would be quite persuasive. In other jurisdictions, what was on that screen print wouldn't be considered.

 

[stopcrazypp]

My point is: there seems to be reason to believe EAP could not have been expected to complete validation and rolled out in a single software update in December 2016 in the advetised form - as the wording in the Design Studio said.

In lawyer speak, discovery on this could well be very damaging to Tesla.

But more importantly: wouldn"t it be great if we didn't need lawyer speak and linguistical loophole acrobatics to excuse Tesla and Elon all the time? Be it schedules, horsepower or whatnot...

It is so unnecessary.

The reason is obvious and doesn't need to assume anything malicious as people like to do in this case. Even if Tesla got to keep the AP1 hardware, they have to go through NHTSA approval before they can release such features. If NHTSA had further questions/concerns, then that would delay any release. Then there is the general matter of software validation taking unspecified amount of time.

 

[Aieukl378]

Is the OP Bob Lutz by chance?

 

[ecarfan]

Mods don't read every one of the hundreds of TMC posts that are made every day. Use the REPORT function is you want to get their attention.

The thread title is click bait.

 

[ohmman]

What part of "At what point will "Full Self driving capability features NOTICABLY depart from EAP features" doesn't mean FSD features wouldn't be available in the said timeframe?

That's trump level spin you are going for right now. There is no start to appear. There is NOTICEABLY DEPART aka significantly depart.

So to be clear, you believe "noticeably" and "significantly" are synonyms. I knew identical twins who were noticeably different, but certainly weren't significantly different. In this particular case, you appear to be the one spinning.

A noticeable departure would be something like more accurate lane tracking, less false positives for emergency braking alerts, or better pedestrian tracking. Traffic light or stop sign recognition may be considered noticeable and significant. But I don't think FSD needs to be fully implemented to qualify.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The reason is obvious and doesn't need to assume anything malicious as people like to do in this case. Even if Tesla got to keep the AP1 hardware, they have to go through NHTSA approval before they can release such features. If NHTSA had further questions/concerns, then that would delay any release. Then there is the general matter of software validation taking unspecified amount of time.

So let me get this straight:

When Tesla made that EAP statement in Design Studio in October/November 2016, you believe EAP was really expected to be complete as described in December 2016? As in four active camera, auto lane changes etc.?

Really?

 

[P85DBeast]

How did everyone know this? Are we all mind readers? Did Tesla make anyone sign a disclosure stating this? Wasn't there a video showing FSD in action fully hands free, from driveway to parking lot? Didn't Elon say a car would drive coast-to-coast totally independently by end of 2017?

No one knew what you are claiming, and Elon is genius but a pathological liar. Tesla is a morally corrupt company. The autopilot scam is just a small portion of their questionable ethics and lies. This will bite them in court.

Tesla never stated that It would be ready upon release. So everyone should have understood that. They did say that "As these features are robustly validated we will enable them over the air, together with a rapidly expanding set of entirely new features. As always, our over-the-air software updates will keep customers at the forefront of technology and continue to make every Tesla, including those equipped with first-generation Autopilot and earlier cars, more capable over time."
If you read All Tesla Cars Have Full Self Driving Hardware from Tesla's website you would have seen this.
All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

 

[oktane]

No it didn't. It said they were expected to be available in December. Expected is not a guarantee, in fact by using that word you should have known that there was a good possibility that EAP wouldn't be available by then.

No, it said "expected to COMPLETE VALIDATION" in December. You can't COMPLETE validation on code that isn't written yet. And expected doesn't mean might. Expected is typically construed to mean "with near certainty". Discovery will show that Tesla was full of *sugar* when they sold cars based on this description. They had hardly tested an AP2 car a hundred miles and released a FAKE video and presented it as a real working prototype.

 

[oktane]

The FSD disclaimer is implying that "regulatory approval" is the main hurdle. In the same breath they are implying between the lines that everything is already working just a few kinks and regulatory approval are needed.

By the way, you can use your car for ride sharing while you are sleeping or working, but only on the Tesla Network because our FSD is working so well it doesn't even need you behind the wheel.

How can people not see this for what it is, a bold-faced LIE and FRAUD.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

IMO the FSD angle remains to be seen. Tesla has promised a lot but also left some clearer backdoors there. I too remain sceptical of driverless driving in that suite due to weather etc. but who knows for sure.

But the EAP was originally marketed as quite something else than as AP1 parity perhaps by summer 2017...

I would have thought more people would be agreeing.

 

[Bladerskb]

Not going to happen. Elon is an optimist. If he speaks his mind, his dates given tend to be the ones he felt at the moment would be possible. The only way to change would either be to shut down/sanitize all his off-cuff communication (like his twitter feed), but I don't think Elon will let that happen.

Of course I don't subscribe to the theory by the OP here that Elon was maliciously giving dates that he knew to be impossible (that is a fairly serious allegation to be making unsubstantiated, might subject Tesla to SEC investigation if true, but I guess baseless accusations is par for the course here). For example about the whole December 2016 date, we know that they had AP1 hardware planned to be included with AP2, which makes sense of the whole previous timeline.

no it doesn't. mobileye dropped them in the summer. their december timeline which elon stated in the press conference and was stated on their official purchase page were not in anyway associated to continuation of mobileye eye3 chip.

 

[lunitiks]

The FSD disclaimer is implying that "regulatory approval" is the main hurdle

Agree

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Not going to happen. Elon is an optimist. If he speaks his mind, his dates given tend to be the ones he felt at the moment would be possible. The only way to change would either be to shut down/sanitize all his off-cuff communication (like his twitter feed), but I don't think Elon will let that happen.

Of course I don't subscribe to the theory by the OP here that Elon was maliciously giving dates that he knew to be impossible (that is a fairly serious allegation to be making unsubstantiated, might subject Tesla to SEC investigation if true, but I guess baseless accusations is par for the course here). For example about the whole December 2016 date, we know that they had AP1 hardware planned to be included with AP2, which makes sense of the whole previous timeline.

Mobileye was not in the cards at all when AP2/EAP was announced! Tesla was already manufacturing cars with the EAP hardware without Mobileye at that stage when they posted the Design Studio!

Mobileye was dropped long before.