FSD Beta 10.13

[EVNow]

FSD first needs to handle much less difficult ULTs consistently well. Things like "single stack" and Chuck's ULTs are absolutely a waste of time before vast majority or ULTs are properly handled.

ps: I've been traveling last couple of months. Seeing the traffic here in India again makes all the "tough" traffic situations in US look very tame in comparison.

 

[PACEMD]

have you SEEN a taxi driver drive in NYC recently???

 

[bobsmy]

I don’t know how/whether FSD Beta currently does this. Anyway, knowing what it can see, and knowing how to creep, seem to be critical capabilities.

As I have said before, FSD does a fairly good ( and improving) job of making intelligent decisions on what it sees, The big challenge will be deciding what it can't see and using that info in it's decision process.

 

[Bladerskb]

ps: I've been traveling last couple of months. Seeing the traffic here in India again makes all the "tough" traffic situations in US look very tame in comparison.

What do you think about China? Do you think FSD Beta can handle the difficult parts of china?

FSD first needs to handle much less difficult ULTs consistently well. Things like "single stack" and Chuck's ULTs are absolutely a waste of time before vast majority or ULTs are properly handled.

Unfortunately that par for course. Every acouple weeks/months, Elon needs to push and hype a new gimmick to his fans. So you get stuff like "real world ai", "silicon neural network", "vector space", "4D labeling", "4D vision", "vision only", "photons", "single stack", "stop for UFO", blah blah blah.

Some of these things are meanless, others are things companies have been doing for a long time he will hype up as the best thing since sliced bread and that only Tesla is doing it. Now he has run out of things to hype and this "chuck's ULT" is now another.

Just acouple weeks ago in the Cyber Event, he claimed that Dojo was the first ever chip built solely for NN training.

Just pure lies after lies and he knows he's lying. He just knows his fanbase is so gullible, just like (moderator edit) that they will lap up everything he says and preach it to the house top.

 

[Daniel in SD]

FSD first needs to handle much less difficult ULTs consistently well. Things like "single stack" and Chuck's ULTs are absolutely a waste of time before vast majority or ULTs are properly handled.

ps: I've been traveling last couple of months. Seeing the traffic here in India again makes all the "tough" traffic situations in US look very tame in comparison.

You didn't miss much.
I bet Chuck's ULT can be "solved" 99% of the time by just assuming every other vehicle will maintain their current trajectory and speed. From an AI perspective it's nowhere near as difficult as turns that require interaction with other vehicles (such as a turn where you need to "push" through heavy traffic). And if the issue is that the perception stack can't reliably determine vehicles trajectory and speed then I think that should be solved first before you worry about anything else.

 

[Electroman]

FSD first needs to handle much less difficult ULTs consistently well. Things like "single stack" and Chuck's ULTs are absolutely a waste of time before vast majority or ULTs are properly handled.

ps: I've been traveling last couple of months. Seeing the traffic here in India again makes all the "tough" traffic situations in US look very tame in comparison.

Agreed. There are very many ULTs that FSD needs to handle better before even attempting to nail Chuck's ULT.

Where in India are you traveling?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

FSD first needs to handle much less difficult ULTs consistently well.

This is not a difficult ULT.

reliably determine vehicles trajectory and speed

And existence.

 

[jeremymc7]

That's where we disagree. I've seen it too many times creep into a T-bone collision unless I abort and back up quick, same as Chuck had to do.

Exactly. I can't even recall how many times beta has creeped out into cross traffic and then just sit there with oncoming traffic because it doesn't know how to back up; nor does it think it just complete the cross traffic move. It always get's confused and is dead slow to act if not just giving up and sitting there.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

creeped out into cross traffic

Creeping into cross traffic is a problem. Creeping is not a problem, however.

 

[Supcom]

Exactly. I can't even recall how many times beta has creeped out into cross traffic and then just sit there with oncoming traffic because it doesn't know how to back up; nor does it think it just complete the cross traffic move. It always get's confused and is dead slow to act if not just giving up and sitting there.

If the car needs to back up, it's already failed. You can't rely on that because there may be a car behind you. Tesla needs to get the car's angle correct so the creep provides correct visibility before it encroaches into the cross traffic lane.

If there's too much obstruction, then Optimus should hop out of the frunk with a chainsaw.

 

[jeremymc7]

If the car needs to back up, it's already failed. You can't rely on that because there may be a car behind you. Tesla needs to get the car's angle correct so the creep provides correct visibility before it encroaches into the cross traffic lane.

If there's too much obstruction, then Optimus should hop out of the frunk with a chainsaw.

I have a specific left turn at extreme angle into bidirectional cross traffic. Also another left out of a narrow single lane onto streets with large trucks on both side.

There is usually no one behind in either case. It's not possible to see if it's safe to make the left from the drivers position, or even windshield camera without nose being out in oncoming cross traffic.

Be hit driver or beta you have no choice but to creep out into traffic basically blind.

Backing up if no car behind is an option - but we don't have backup yet.
Flooring it if there is a window before getting hit is an option - but we don't have this yet, car thinks it's safer to sit in front of traffic.
Side facing bumper camera would be maybe the best option - again we don't have it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I have a specific left turn at extreme angle into bidirectional cross traffic. Also another left out of a narrow single lane onto streets with large trucks on both side.

Now those sound like actually difficult turns. If you are amenable, you could post the location and some video to show people what a difficult ULT looks like. Note they are difficult for a human, so would be expected to be difficult for FSD Beta.

 

[Supcom]

I have a specific left turn at extreme angle into bidirectional cross traffic. Also another left out of a narrow single lane onto streets with large trucks on both side.

There is usually no one behind in either case. It's not possible to see if it's safe to make the left from the drivers position, or even windshield camera without nose being out in oncoming cross traffic.

Be hit driver or beta you have no choice but to creep out into traffic basically blind.

Backing up if no car behind is an option - but we don't have backup yet.
Flooring it if there is a window before getting hit is an option - but we don't have this yet, car thinks it's safer to sit in front of traffic.
Side facing bumper camera would be maybe the best option - again we don't have it.

If you are driving manually and there is a car behind you, how do you manage these intersections? Stick the nose out there and hope for the best?

Does the left repeater camera see the cross traffic? It's positioned further forward and is recorded, unlike the B-pillar camera.

 

[jeremymc7]

Now those sound like actually difficult turns. If you are amenable, you could post the location and some video to show people what a difficult ULT looks like. Note they are difficult for a human, so would be expected to be difficult for FSD Beta.

Agreed, hard for both. But if there was front bumper cameras at the edge of the nose beta would have an easier time than a human we're much farther back. But again we don't have that option. Have to deal with what we have.

I'll try and get some shots and post them.

 

[jeremymc7]

If you are driving manually and there is a car behind you, how do you manage these intersections? Stick the nose out there and hope for the best?

Does the left repeater camera see the cross traffic? It's positioned further forward and is recorded, unlike the B-pillar camera.

Yes, manually you have creep out slowly. I can do a better job creeping than beta so far in these instances. But yeah more or less hope for the best.

Same thing when your coming out of single lane alley onto cross traffic. You have to slowly and blindly watch for humans and then cars.

In major metro areas there are tons of blind left or right turns; or turns with such extreme angles current cameras don't line up ideally.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Agreed, hard for both. But if there was front bumper cameras at the edge of the nose beta would have an easier time than a human we're much farther back. But again we don't have that option. Have to deal with what we have.

I'll try and get some shots and post them.

Cool.

What is going to be awesome is when the car uses the front cameras to look at the mirrors posted on some of these intersections, and takes that information into account. (Few humans use these, so this would be superhuman ability.) Perhaps in December as the final addition before wide release? Or maybe it will only happen just prior to Robotaxis.

 

[jeremymc7]

Now those sound like actually difficult turns. If you are amenable, you could post the location and some video to show people what a difficult ULT looks like. Note they are difficult for a human, so would be expected to be difficult for FSD Beta.

Try this one.

Most all of the intersections are blind due to large trees, building, angles, and positions of the stop signs.

From 21st left on Temple (curved one) the car just creeps out into cross traffic that both ways has no drops. It always creeps into traffic and takes it time to finish, in various ways.

From Template right onto 21st (curved one) the car stops in the middle of the intersection even though the cross traffic has a stop.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

From 21st left on Temple (curved one) the car just creeps out into cross traffic that both ways has no drops. It always creeps into traffic and takes it time to finish, in various ways.

From Template right onto 21st (curved one) the car stops in the middle of the intersection even though the cross traffic has a stop.

Both of these seem pretty easy for a human (only issue would be parked vehicles obscuring visibility), so I expect FSD should have a camera angle for it, and eventually have no problem. Maybe in a few years?

I suspect it struggles with this one because it doesn’t know how to drive.

 

[johnmodely]

But how many of those cars have actually purchased FSD (and thus need your hypothetical HW4 upgrade)?

Has not Tesla's marketing since 2018 been every car made is FSD capable and will only require a software update? What happens when FSD is realized and its awesome, so now 3 million cars want it...even if they didn't purchase FSD they might have millions wanting to upgrade and anything done outside of the factory is a logistical nightmare.

 

[bobsmy]

Has not Tesla's marketing since 2018 been every car made is FSD capable and will only require a software update? What happens when FSD is realized and its awesome, so now 3 million cars want it...even if they didn't purchase FSD they might have millions wanting to upgrade and anything done outside of the factory is a logistical nightmare.

This has the potential to have a major financial impact on Tesla.