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FSD tweets

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Elon says that 12.5 and 12.6 are in early testing and predicts that once bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get 1 intervention:

I don’t understand how this is “doubling down on intervention rate.” He literally said nothing about the real intervention rate. All he said (in different words) is that when the intervention rate gets really really low, it will be really really low. Kind of tautological.
 
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I don’t understand how this is “doubling down on intervention rate.” He literally said nothing about the real intervention rate. All he said (in different words) is that when the intervention rate gets really really low, it will be really really low. Kind of tautological.

I think "doubling down" was just AI Driver's way of saying that Elon is not backing down from his big promises about intervention rate improvement. In other words, Elon promised a big improvement (5-10x improvement) and he is "doubling down" by promising another big improvement again (1 intervention per year).
 
I think "doubling down" was just AI Driver's way of saying that Elon is not backing down from his big promises about intervention rate improvement. In other words, Elon promised a big improvement (5-10x improvement) and he is "doubling down" by promising another big improvement again (1 intervention per year).
I mean it seems clear that when all known bugs are fixed (which includes currently unknown bugs which become known once they cause problems), then it will be really good. Does not seem like he has made any commitments - if anything this Tweet backs way off of prior statements.
 
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I do think it is extremely unlikely that even with the logical interpretation of known bugs including unknown bugs, that this Elon Tweet will have any grounding in reality for 12.4/12.5/12.6 or whatever.

Of course he made no such commitment, making no mention at all of what version would achieve this.

Weak sauce. Goalposts have been entirely removed!
 
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I mean it seems clear that when all known bugs are fixed (which includes currently unknown bugs which become known once they cause problems), then it will be really good. Does not seem like he has made any commitments - if anything this Tweet backs way off of prior statements.
Yeah this seems like an admission that 10.4 will not be 5-10x better. “Massive number of changes” = regressions in Elon speak.
 
I think "doubling down" was just AI Driver's way of saying that Elon is not backing down from his big promises about intervention rate improvement. In other words, Elon promised a big improvement (5-10x improvement) and he is "doubling down" by promising another big improvement again (1 intervention per year).

When inevitably it doesn't have 1 intervention per year:

Elon 2025: "you're intervening it wrong"

c.f. iPhone 4: Jobs insisted on a particular metallic case/antenna design which the engineers told him would result in bad RF reception when people held it. Jobs insisted they go forward. People found it really did screw up the reception.

Steve said: "you're holding it wrong".

 
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FSD 12.4 going out now to select list of beta testers. The usual suspects:

Info about 12.4:
Changes in 12.4:
  1. Removal of steering wheel nag in ideal conditions
  2. Improved comfort by reducing acceleration and hard braking
  3. Seek parking spot when arriving at destination
  4. Reduced interventions by up to 5-10x
  5. All the features of the Spring Update such as Audible, new UI, Trip Progress bar and more
  6. For owners on update 2024.3.25, it'll also include the features in the 2024.8 update such as One-Time Charge Limits, New WiFi/Bluetooth menus, Updated turn signals and more
Progress can be monitored here: 2024.15.5 Official Tesla Software Update - Teslascope
 
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FSD 12.4 first impressions: feels more capable, but needs a lot more “polish”.
  1. no wheel nag is incredible, really makes you feel like you’re being driven around and truly transforms the experience. I feel like I’m doing something naughty by not touching the wheel but it’s so nice. nags are still present but looking forward at the road satisfies it. never touched the steering wheel once except to park. will do more testing with sunglasses in day time
  2. feels much more assertive / human like while turning in general, especially U-turns, stop signs, and parking lots. not any hesitancy or odd creeping in any of the intersections I’ve gone through so far, it just goes for it
  3. slowed down when a police officer turned on his lights beside my car, I know for a fact 12.3 didn’t react to emergency lights at all
  4. “auto” speed has regressed a bit, at least at night time. it was going ~5mph under the speed limit most of the time and never went 2mph over where 12.3 was always 5-6mph over on the same roads
  5. huge regression in random lane changes, it feels very indecisive about which lane it wants to be in it was going back and fourth between two lanes in short periods of time on multiple roads around where I live
  6. “lane dancing” still a thing in a couple of intersections, but seems to be more decisive. 12.3 was definitely worse, but it’s not completely fixed yet
  7. it spotted some pedestrians crossing the street I never saw and I doubt 12.3 would have waited for
  8. doesn’t park itself when it reaches the destination, will literally just circle the parking lot over and over instead of just stopping at the navigation pin. still need to disengage to auto park
  9. vision auto park feels much faster. shifts are super quick and it feels like it knows what it’s doing. I might actually use it a bit now
I will try to upload some clips later, but the spring update messed with the visualizations so I need to redo my overlay which takes time. I’ll stay up late though