General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ruralectric]

This is another reason to fight for better alternatives to diesel electricity generators. Unfortunately many Tesla are powered with those too. Tesla Solar and Energy need to ramp up asap. I wish Elon spent some time on that too. He could speak up way more about that.

Someone here the other day mentioned a recent FERC decision that will eliminate barriers to market entry for grid storage products. It may have been overlooked as it was buried amongst the discussion of federal income tax rates. This is a big deal and these changes were lobbied for by Tesla, Solar City and others. There is a reason we only hear about utility-scale battery storage projects in only a few parts of the U.S. (it's not just a function of energy cost) and this decision looks to pave the way for the proliferation of grid storage in wholesale electricity markets regulated by FERC. Among other things the decision will require that these markets recognize the value of grid services that batteries provide which enhance grid stability.

This decision is an important pre-requisite for the number of grid storage products in the U.S. to take off. It is also significant in that 4 out of 5 the FERC board members are Trump appointees. This is the same regulatory body that only a few weeks ago rejected Energy Secretary Rick Perry's ridiculous proposal to subsidize coal on the backs of rate payers. These are both strong signals that the FERC board is doing its job and not bending to the will of the three-ring Trump Circus.

Some background information if you want to understand the barriers to market entry faced by grid-storage products and the pending rule changes:

Summary of the decision:
Batteries Set to Compete Against Generators in Power Markets

The decision:
FERC Issues Final Rule on Electric Storage Participation in Regional Markets

A good article from 2016 that provides background on the FERC decision and advocacy for market changes by Tesla and others:
Merging Companies Tesla and SolarCity Among Entities Advocating Wider Role for Electric Storage Resources in RTO and ISO Markets

 

[kbM3]

I am an aggressive bull and I think it is time to protect myself in the event of a black swan or death by a thousand cuts to TSLA. I've created a thread and would love to hear other's strategies and/or get feedback on my own.
.
Black Swan protection strategies

 

[JRP3]

The following is my guiding principle, and I believe it applies here.

Except for the people who are really not good at heart. Don't bury your head in the sand.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I agree that S feels old now when compared to 3. X not quite as old but getting there. I agree a refresh isn’t enough and a redo would be required. However, I have been unable to come up with a viable timeline or even reason for Tesla to do a refresh or redesign for S or X. Those two have served their purpose in the mission and Tesla is moving on to the next phase. There’s no time to piddle around making 100k of those two vehicles total per year when Tesla needs to make millions of 3, Y and pickup per year and make Semi to get those diesel beasts off our roads and make solar shingles, power walls, power packs, expand Supercharger Network, expand sales and service etc...

Agree.

You left out Roadster 2 which makes me believe there is a justification for halo type of car/product. S/X smaller sales numbers are still significantly important.

From the company’s standpoint I believe an aspirational car still makes a lot of sense even though it doesn’t contribute as much to the mission anymore.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agree.

You left out Roadster 2 which makes me believe there is a justification for halo type of car/product. S/X smaller sales numbers are still significantly important.

From the company’s standpoint I believe an aspirational car still makes a lot of sense even though it doesn’t contribute as much to the mission anymore.

To me Roadster 2 is another proof of concept and a vehicle they have to do because they promised one - and maybe a bit because it’s fun to embarrass everyone else claiming ultimate petrol supercar. My impression is that it’ll be limited production.

The (also limited) sales numbers of S/X are about to become mouse nuts.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah K, why the cliffhanger? Let's hear it!

I remember the SC merge like it was yesterday and I’m philosophically and religiously against being publicly lynched.

I’m trying to pick up breadcrumbs and make a digestible meal out of them. Several things don’t make sense to me unless... (I posted a list over in one of the refresh threads if you care to dig.)

In the end, even if I’m right, it won’t matter long term to Tesla. There will be an outcry by many, maybe even most, the bears will have another field day, but it’ll turn out to be just fine in the end.

 

[avoigt]

VW does present the ID Vizzon concept car in Geneva

"Powering it are two electric motors that channel a combined output of 306PS (302hp) to both axles. Top speed is said to be 180km/h (112mph), and the 111kWh lithium-ion battery allows it to travel for up to 665km (413miles) in between charges, “when braking regeneration is factored in”."

It makes me wonder again what I am missing:

• Those specs are below what Tesla is doing today and will be way behind what I expect new models will do in 2020
• Again just only a blurred computer picture with no details and no pilot car to look at, sit in and test drive
• Lithium Ione Battery with 111 kWh for 665km indicates they don't go for other technology and acknowledge to be behind

Its another prove that VW is very far away to bring anything on the road that is able to compete....

VW teases upcoming self-driving all-electric sedan with massive 111 kWh battery pack
https://www.carscoops.com/2018/02/vw-id-vizzion-concept-previews-stylish-tesla-model-s-fighter/

 

[Waiting4M3]

VW does present the ID Vizzon concept car in Geneva

"Powering it are two electric motors that channel a combined output of 306PS (302hp) to both axles. Top speed is said to be 180km/h (112mph), and the 111kWh lithium-ion battery allows it to travel for up to 665km (413miles) in between charges, “when braking regeneration is factored in”."

It makes me wonder again what I am missing:

• Those specs are below what Tesla is doing today and will be way behind what I expect new models will do in 2020
• Again just only a blurred computer picture with no details and no pilot car to look at, sit in and test drive
• Lithium Ione Battery with 111 kWh for 665km indicates they don't go for other technology and acknowledge to be behind

Its another prove that VW is very far away to bring anything on the road that is able to compete....

VW teases upcoming self-driving all-electric sedan with massive 111 kWh battery pack
https://www.carscoops.com/2018/02/vw-id-vizzion-concept-previews-stylish-tesla-model-s-fighter/

You can't spell VaporWare without VW

 

[Reciprocity]

You can't spell VaporWare without VW

LoL.. Love it..

What's really sad is that the typical "VaporWare" is an aspirational over promise. These specs are mundane at best. You have to adjust for NEDC vs EPA where ranges could be off by as much as 20-30%. This puts the 111KWh pack at around what the current S 100D pack produces today. This is pretty sad for a car that more then likely comes well after 2020 as they are planning 3 different cars before this one. What do you all think the 2020/21 Model S with 2170 cells might like look like? Could be above 120KWh and over 400 miles of EPA rated range with some nice buffer to allow for bad weather and different driving conditions. 3 years in Tesla years is like an eternity. Tesla should be starting to really ramp up the Model Y and will be talking about when the Pickup will enter production.

 

[scaesare]

S/X are not the ‘flagship’ models. They are/were a means to the next step.

Umm...

 

[Krugerrand]

Umm...

View attachment 281341

Ok, so then the refresh/redesign is coming to make the S a standout flagship vehicle.

 

[Reciprocity]

Umm...

View attachment 281341

If your flagship is what leads your mission on the field of battle, then I would agree with the original poster. You need look no further then projecting revenues for each model to determine what the true flagship is. With a company like Tesla, its always going to be the newest vehicle because they never stop pushing the limits of innovation. Its hard for a 5+ year old design to be more innovative then a new design. Other brands do the opposite, they innovate only at the top end and some of that trickles down to the more mass market products. Tesla innovates with each iteration of each product. The S/X could again be the most innovative with a significant refresh, but I dont think that is happening in 2018. I have said it 100 times, that refresh will come with tax credit phase outs. There is zero reason to stoke demand for the S/X that already has more demand than production capacity.

 

[JRP3]

You need look no further then projecting revenues for each model to determine what the true flagship is.

That's not how most people view a "flagship" model, nor does Tesla.

 

[Reciprocity]

That's not how most people view a "flagship" model, nor does Tesla.

Flagship in name alone then. The focus of the company is certainly everywhere else.

 

[scaesare]

You need look no further then projecting revenues for each model to determine what the true flagship is.

Flagship typically refers to "top of the line", not "max volume/revenue"

 

[Reciprocity]

Flagship typically refers to "top of the line", not "max volume/revenue"

I dont think anyone is arguing what flagship means in the traditional auto manufacturing world. If that's not the case then you are right.. its the flagship. Though every single resource of the company is focused elsewhere. So its the neglected flagship and its not the future leader of the mission.

My point is that other manufacturers put their efforts into their flagships and those advancements trickle down to other commodity products.

If Tesla has a flagship product now, maybe its the factory?

 

[Waiting4M3]

I dont think anyone is arguing what flagship means in the traditional auto manufacturing world. If that's not the case then you are right.. its the flagship. Though every single resource of the company is focused elsewhere. So its the neglected flagship and its not the future leader of the mission.

My point is that other manufacturers put their efforts into their flagships and those advancements trickle down to other commodity products.

If Tesla has a flagship product now, maybe its the factory?

This may be getting a little OT but I thought Roadster would be the flagship once Tesla starts producing it.

 

[Dwdnjck]

To me Roadster 2 is another proof of concept and a vehicle they have to do because they promised one - and maybe a bit because it’s fun to embarrass everyone else claiming ultimate petrol supercar. My impression is that it’ll be limited production



Tesla Roadster 2 will generate more profit than Corvette ever did.

 

[jhm]

John Noel Is Running with the Sun

Hey I'm going to give a shameless political plug for John Noel, who is running for the Georgia Public Service Commission in a statewide election. The current state of the commission is absolute regulatory capture for the utilities. John is a big Tesla fan, who owns an energy efficiency contractor company. In fact his company, Energy + Enviroment installed the Tesla wallcharger at my own home. John has 10kW solar plus a Tesla Powerwall at this home. He also offers free Tesla charging!

So it's about time we get a real Tesla fan, a real solar, battery and efficiency guy on the PSC. So if you live and vote in Georgia, please get to know John Noel and encourage others to vote for him. And I'd challenge all US Tesla investors to consider making campaign contributions. The likes of Southern Company "protect" their shareholder interests by bank rolling their cronies on to the PSC. So as Tesla shareholders we should not hesitate to back energy progressive candidates like John Noel.

 

[scaesare]

This may be getting a little OT but I thought Roadster would be the flagship once Tesla starts producing it.

There's also the concept of "Halo Car": very limited production, exotic/price/performance/features. Not the "flagship" at the lead of your regular product portfolio, but more of a "Hey look at what this company is capable of" type product.

I'd say the Mercedes AMG/S-class are their flagships cars. Maybe the Maybachs, although they are a bit of a "parallel" line. Their Project One would be a halo car.