General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

sorry, misspoke. The 4126 was for last 7 days. not since Wednesday. I asked him what total was for Wednesday output but he didn't know. He is going to get me 7 day output and also single day output when he goes back to work Sunday.

Maybe try and limit the amount of info you share about him... like when his shift is and so. We don't want to burn any of our "sources", do we?

 

[mrdoubleb]

On a general note - not questioning the validity of our fellow member's post here - I think it's fair to excercise some caution when reading info from unnamed sources.

However.... everything points to this direction so I think this could be legit.

• Elon's Twitter warning followed by "coming sooner than expected" on the back of Q1 ER/call language that already didn't see any big issues going to 5k.
• That report from display suppliers guiding to ~40k produced in Q2 (I estimate ~9k for April and they claimed orders of 20k for May and 10k for June) and 58k for Q3.
• Vin registrations over the past 3 weeks averaging just under 5k per week.

The numbers coming out July 1-3 will be super exciting. Hoping I can buy some more shares until then.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter

Canadian deliveries have begun!

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this morning: Trump to sit down with major automakers on Friday on fuel rules

Meeting participants do not include anyone from Tesla:

The chief executives of General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, along with senior U.S. executives from Toyota Motor Corp, Volkswagen AG, Hyundai Motor Co, Nissan Motor Co, Honda Motor Co, BMW AG and Daimler AG will meet Trump, along with the chief executives of two auto trade groups.

Unlike many other Trump meetings with business leaders, Friday’s meeting will be closed to the media.

 

[Todd Burch]

Reuters - this morning: Trump to sit down with major automakers on Friday on fuel rules

Meeting participants do not include anyone from Tesla:

The chief executives of General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, along with senior U.S. executives from Toyota Motor Corp, Volkswagen AG, Hyundai Motor Co, Nissan Motor Co, Honda Motor Co, BMW AG and Daimler AG will meet Trump, along with the chief executives of two auto trade groups.

Unlike many other Trump meetings with business leaders, Friday’s meeting will be closed to the media.

Did they forget anyone there? I dunno...you'd think that meeting should involve all American automakers...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Great image by Colin Mckerracher on Twitter:

Chinese EV sales are taking off: 73,000 sold in April alone. For reference, U.S. EV sales in April were 19,500

Can't wait for M3 to reach China ;-)
Source: Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

UPDATE: I found the original source in Chinese, here's the link to the whole article (translated by Google):
Google Translate

 

[colettimj]

Did they forget anyone there? I dunno...you'd think that meeting should involve all American automakers...

"and rule changes to address lower gasoline prices"

Okily-dokily

 

[Todd Burch]

How many of the 10 automakers, all of whom are primarily or entirely dependent on gasoline-burning vehicles, are going to oppose lower fuel economy standards?

I'd complain that the EPA is probably not even involved, but since these days the 'EPA' is really more like the 'A' (having lost the 'EP'), it probably doesn't even matter.

 

[bhtooefr]

The E is still present, it's just that the P has been swapped for a D, and I don't mean Dual motors, I mean Destruction.

 

[Reality]

I have a friend from H.S. who works on the “last stop” line (he said that was their internal name for end of line workers). Anyways, he said yesterday the board showed production from Wednesday was 4126. I also asked what Wesneaday total was but he didn’t look at that number but would on Sunday when he works again. I asked if he could take a pic for me but he was quick to say no bc they are not allowed to have their phones out and he would probably get fired if he did. I’m super excited and hopefully we get some more leaking of info on production #’s soon.

Cool update.


I always wonder what kind of formal instruction Tesla employees get about releasing this information. Has your friend ever mentioned not being allowed to talk about it? Or being warned about sharing model 3 data etc etc?


Great insight

 

[Waiting4M3]

How many of the 10 automakers, all of whom are primarily or entirely dependent on gasoline-burning vehicles, are going to oppose lower fuel economy standards?

I'd complain that the EPA is probably not even involved, but since these days the 'EPA' is really more like the 'A' (having lost the 'EP'), it probably doesn't even matter.

I'd actually be interested to see, with gas price pushing $4/gal, which of the 10 ICE automakers will lower the gas mileage 1st on their 2019 model.

 

[JoaoD]

I'd actually be interested to see, with gas price pushing $4/gal, which of the 10 ICE automakers will lower the gas mileage 1st on their 2019 model.

It is too late now to lower the gas mileage for the 2019 model since they are already announced and in production, remember that the 2019 models will all be launched mid to late 2018...

 

[Curt Renz]

How many of the 10 automakers, all of whom are primarily or entirely dependent on gasoline-burning vehicles, are going to oppose lower fuel economy standards?

I'd complain that the EPA is probably not even involved, but since these days the 'EPA' is really more like the 'A' (having lost the 'EP'), it probably doesn't even matter.

Undoubtedly the legacy automakers want to slow the transition to electric, so they can continue to profit from ICE production as long as possible. Meanwhile the current EPA and Trump bow to their wishes. This should allow time for Tesla to ramp up its production to the point that most consumers won't ever consider EVs other than Teslas. The ICE era will eventually end, leaving Tesla a wide moat whether Elon wants one or not.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[dmckinstry]

Undoubtedly the legacy automakers want to slow the transition to electric, so they can continue to profit from ICE production as long as possible. Meanwhile the current EPA and Trump bow to their wishes. This should allow time for Tesla to ramp up its production to the point that most consumers won't ever consider EVs other than Teslas. The ICE era will eventually end, leaving Tesla a wide moat whether Elon wants one or not.

We need icons for letting us link our opinions such as "agree and like" or "agree and hate", "funny & love", etc.

 

[gene]

Gas over $4 already at some stations in Santa Barbara, CA.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It is too late now to lower the gas mileage for the 2019 model since they are already announced and in production, remember that the 2019 models will all be launched mid to late 2018...

Ahh, the cursed limitation of model year!!! So by then time they can lower their mileage it will be 2020, and a new president could be in office....

 

[EinSV]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Nice! Bullish sign of progress toward 5K/week.

 

[ggr]

Ahh, the cursed limitation of model year!!! So by then time they can lower their mileage it will be 2020, and a new president could be in office....

Nahhh, they can do it with an over-the-air software upgra... oh.

 

[tander]

On a general note - not questioning the validity of our fellow member's post here - I think it's fair to excercise some caution when reading info from unnamed sources.

However.... everything points to this direction so I think this could be legit.

• Elon's Twitter warning followed by "coming sooner than expected" on the back of Q1 ER/call language that already didn't see any big issues going to 5k.
• That report from display suppliers guiding to ~40k produced in Q2 (I estimate ~9k for April and they claimed orders of 20k for May and 10k for June) and 58k for Q3.
• Vin registrations over the past 3 weeks averaging just under 5k per week.

The numbers coming out July 1-3 will be super exciting. Hoping I can buy some more shares until then.

"excercise some caution when reading info from unnamed sources"---good rule for life and Internet forums. Anybody remember them talking about "burst rates" in the conference call? I'm not exactly sure what that is, but I assume it is running at x,000 a week rate for an hour or two. Iirc they were making 5,000 a week burst rate, which implies that the machine is pretty much built and working, and now it's mostly a matter of feeding it.

Edit: couldn't find burst rate in the conf call transcripts, did I imagine that? Another good reason to exercise caution...